Tomorrow, June 24th: 5 primary states, 1 runoff

[Statistikhengst]

Here just a reminder from the Primary calendar:

So, tomorrow, there are primary contests in Colorado, Maryland, New York, Oklahoma and Utah, plus the very watched Primary runoff in Mississippi between incumbent Cochran and Tea Party challenger McDaniel.

This means that there will be senatorial primaries in 4 states, but for 5 senatorial seats (see the graphic above) and also gubernatorial primaries in 4 states.

As of tomorrow, 32 of the 50 states + DC will have had their primaries and in terms of heavy population centers, most of the biggest states will have already had their primaries, save FL and a couple of others.


Polling coming in from Mississippi shows that Tea Party challenger Chris McDaniel has moved into a statistically significant lead and is likely to topple the incumbent tomorrow.


As I have been doing all year long, this is just the reminder that tomorrow is a primary day.

Tomorrow, I will put out the primary results thread.

As today wears on, I will be including last minute polling data on this thread, however.

If there is a race that really interests you, let me know.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Final Chism poll, Mississippi (Cochran vs. McDaniel):

Newly Released MEMO: Final Track of the ?US Senate MS GOP Primary Runoff

697 RV, MoE = +/-3.8

McDaniel: 52
Cochran: 44
und: 4

Margin: McDaniel +8

Well outside the MoE.


The Chism poll before this one showed a tie: 44-44.



However, this poll has Cochran up by 1:

POLL: McDaniel/Cochran dead heat- turn out is everything - WDAM.COM - TV 7 - News, Weather and Sports

NSON Opinion Strategy (Utah) 400 LV, MoE = 4.9

Cochran: 44.5
McDaniel: 44.0
und: 11.5

Statistical tie.

I have never heard of NSON before. Have no idea if that is a fly-by-night deal like Rainmaker was in West Virginia back in 2008.

Interesting that this poll was paid for and put out by the Tea Party, which supports McDaniels.

Obviously, both polls cannot be right at the same time and it is also very, very interesting that the MoE for NSOM (with LIKELY VOTERS) is higher than with Chism (with REGISTERED VOTERS). Usually, when comparing those two models, it's the other way around.

Average:

8 - 0.5 = 7.5 / 2 = 3.75

McDaniel +3.75

 

[mamooth]

In Harlem, Charlie Rangel is facing a primary that's not a sure thing. Demographics and changing district lines have given the district a latino majority, and Rangel's opponent is one Adriano Espaillat.

 

[Statistikhengst]

In Harlem, Charlie Rangel is facing a primary that's not a sure thing. Demographics and changing district lines have given the district a latino majority, and Rangel's opponent is one Adriano Espaillat.

I personally think that it's time for Rangel to go, I find him to be an embarrassment for the Democratic Party. But I don't know much about Espaillat yet.

 

[Nyvin]

It's going to be so hilarious if Tom Tancredo wins the GOP nomination for Colorado governor...lol

 

[BreezeWood]

McDaniel Not Giving up GOP Runoff Against Cochran - ABC News


"We haven't determined our specific legal recourse," Fritsch said. "We're kind of in a holding pattern, to a certain degree, while we're collecting evidence."
...............

The McDaniel campaign has sent representatives to most of Mississippi's 82 counties to try to examine poll books to look for crossover voting, Fritsch said. The McDaniel campaign believes it has found about 3,300 crossover votes in 38 counties ...

they need 6793 fraudulent votes ... to bad it wasn't closer - - for McDaniel and the Tea Party.

.

 

[Picaro]

Nate Silver has shifted his March Senate seat prediction slightly in favor of Democrats, from a 5.8 seat gain for the GOP to a 5.7. So, if the GOP primaries produce a lot of nominations for cranks and loons in the primaries, that would certainly narrow those predicted gains.

 

[Picaro]

In Harlem, Charlie Rangel is facing a primary that's not a sure thing. Demographics and changing district lines have given the district a latino majority, and Rangel's opponent is one Adriano Espaillat.

The Democratic Party's reliance on identity politics is going to have some divisive internal consequences for them down the road, few of them pleasant ones. That has already resulted in them losing what would be sure thing majorities in both Houses for decades now, and will only get worse.

 

[Shanty]

Final Chism poll, Mississippi (Cochran vs. McDaniel):

Newly Released MEMO: Final Track of the ?US Senate MS GOP Primary Runoff

697 RV, MoE = +/-3.8

McDaniel: 52
Cochran: 44
und: 4

Margin: McDaniel +8

Well outside the MoE.


The Chism poll before this one showed a tie: 44-44.



However, this poll has Cochran up by 1:

POLL: McDaniel/Cochran dead heat- turn out is everything - WDAM.COM - TV 7 - News, Weather and Sports

NSON Opinion Strategy (Utah) 400 LV, MoE = 4.9

Cochran: 44.5
McDaniel: 44.0
und: 11.5

Statistical tie.

I have never heard of NSON before. Have no idea if that is a fly-by-night deal like Rainmaker was in West Virginia back in 2008.

Interesting that this poll was paid for and put out by the Tea Party, which supports McDaniels.

Obviously, both polls cannot be right at the same time and it is also very, very interesting that the MoE for NSOM (with LIKELY VOTERS) is higher than with Chism (with REGISTERED VOTERS). Usually, when comparing those two models, it's the other way around.

Average:

8 - 0.5 = 7.5 / 2 = 3.75

McDaniel +3.75

Chism's polling has pretty much cemented their place as pollsters to never believe.