this is the Greatest Stock Market Bubble ever seen

[Neubarth]

Something tells me that unless earning start to rise soon, the bubble will burst for the second time in one year's time. S&P500 P/E average is over 62.

I could live with 17 or 18, but 62 is insane! I won't guarantee anything, but I expect that the market will correct to a more rational P/E average.

 

[Toro]

Stocks are inexpensive. Profit margins are depressed and should not be used to gauge the fundamental profitability of the market.

The PE of the media stock is 12x.

According to Tobin's Q, the market is, or at least was, dirt cheap.

The greatest stock market bubble was in 2000. THAT was a bubble.

 

[Neubarth]

Interesting theory, Toro. Looks crazy to me.

I will continue to use the old fashioned way of valuing stocks. There is no way that we are going to return to the earnings that we saw before the correction. Thus we should not expect this P/E RATIO of 62 to stand for long. Something has got to give, just like a rubber band stretched too tight.

http://www.bullandbearwise.com/SPEarningsChart.asp

 

[Neubarth]

New York Fed Index Falls To -9.4 In June
06/15/09 08:38 am (EST)
New York Fed Index Falls To -9.4 In June - Forex TV


(RTTNews) - Conditions for New York manufacturers have continued to deteriorate in the month of June, according to a report released by the New York Federal Reserve on Monday, with the index of activity in the sector falling by much more than expected.

The New York Fed said its general business conditions index fell to a negative 9.4 in June from a negative 4.55 in May, with a negative reading indicating a deterioration in conditions. Economists had expected the index to edge down to a negative 5.10.

Conditions for New York manufacturers have continued to deteriorate in the month of June, according to a report released by the New York Federal Reserve on Monday, with the index of activity in the sector falling by much more than expected.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
This is the greatest collapse in World History.

WE ARE GOING UNDER!!!!!

This is not the imagined 6% GDP collapse that was supposed to be down to 3% in June. This is a horrifying confirmation that the economy is continuing to decline even further. There are no green shoots here! Just crappy economic numbers.

We are in a strong economic collapse! Sell your stocks and short the market.

DXD is one way.

 

[Paulie]

DXD is one way.

I made a nice profit off of DXD during the last down phase of the DOW. Bought at 8600, and rode it all the way down to the March bottom. It was completely a guessing game that turned out right for me.

I figured we'd see a ton of resistance around that same level again, like we're seeing now. There may not be so much of a huge correction again, as there will be a stagnant period where we're stuck between 8 and 9000 as companies slowly start to attain earnings again.

I'm personally trading small and micro caps right now. There are some really good emerging companies that are making profits right now while the big boys figure out what the fuck they're going to do with their massive debt burdens.