Hafar1014
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- Sep 1, 2010
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Democrats claim crime is down. The facts say its up especially in their cities. After defund police policies and bring in thousands of criminal illegals to their cities crime has exploded
President Trump says crime is rampant in U.S. cities, while his critics assert that it is under control and dropping. Mr. Trump has sent National Guardsmen to select cities to fight crime, while an Associated Press report asserts that the president’s “rhetoric” mirrors that of “conservatives going back decades who have denounced cities, especially those with majority nonwhite populations or led by progressives, as lawless or crime-ridden and in need of outside intervention.”
So, have our cities become crime-ridden and unpleasant, or are they safe and livable?
Newly released results from the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Crime Victimization Survey go a long way toward answering those questions. The survey finds that the rate of violent crime in urban areas increased by 61% from 2019 to 2024.
That crime spike was found only in cities. In suburban and rural areas, the observed increase in violent crime over that same span—4% and 2%, respectively—wasn’t statistically significant.
In 2019, before George Floyd, pandemic closures and the defund-the-police movement, the rate of violent crime in urban areas was roughly identical to the rate nationwide. In 2024, the rate of violent crime in urban areas was 46% higher than the nationwide rate and 104% higher—more than double—the rural rate.
Property crime has long been more prevalent in cities than elsewhere, but that gap has widened. In 2019 the property-crime rate was 51% higher in urban areas than it was nationwide; in 2024 it was 86% higher. The number of property-crime victimizations in 2024 per 1,000 households was 181.6 in urban areas, 96.1 in suburban areas, and 48.3 in rural areas.
Rather than relying on police reports, the National Crime Victimization Survey asks U.S. residents whether they were a crime victim in recent months. If so, it asks about the nature of the crime, the demographics of those involved, and whether the crime was reported to police. The nation’s largest crime survey, it has been conducted since the Nixon administration.
One thing the survey can’t measure is homicide rates, as it’s a survey of victims. Murders are the easiest crime to count, however, so police statistics in this realm should be quite reliable. Homicide counts in two cities to which Mr. Trump has sent National Guardsmen largely match the survey findings for recent crime trends.
In the District of Columbia, the number of homicides rose 13% from 2019 to 2024 and 61% from 2017 to 2024. In Portland, Ore., homicides almost doubled from 2019 to 2024, to 71 from 36. While it’s true that both these cities had even more murders in 2021 and 2022 than in 2024, that shows how high their murder numbers spiked before falling back down somewhat.
As for the demographics of crime, the survey finds that the likelihood that whites, blacks and Hispanics will be victims of violent crimes essentially matches their percentage of the population. A majority (52%) of incidents involving black victims also featured black offenders, a result not true for any other racial group.
The primary reason black residents weren’t disproportionately likely to be crime victims—despite this high rate of intraracial crime—is that there are comparatively few crimes committed against black victims by white offenders. White residents made up 60% of the population yet were offenders in only 7% of incidents involving black victims.
The most overlooked U.S. crime story in recent years has been the huge crime spike in our cities. When violent crime doesn’t rise in suburban or rural areas but rises 61% in urban areas, that should be big news. Mr. Trump is right that American cities aren’t nearly as safe as they were before “systemic racism” became a familiar accusation and “defund the police” became a rallying cry.
Mr. Anderson is president of the American Main Street Initiative. He served as director of the Bureau of Justice Statistics, 2017-21.
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President Trump says crime is rampant in U.S. cities, while his critics assert that it is under control and dropping. Mr. Trump has sent National Guardsmen to select cities to fight crime, while an Associated Press report asserts that the president’s “rhetoric” mirrors that of “conservatives going back decades who have denounced cities, especially those with majority nonwhite populations or led by progressives, as lawless or crime-ridden and in need of outside intervention.”
So, have our cities become crime-ridden and unpleasant, or are they safe and livable?
Newly released results from the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Crime Victimization Survey go a long way toward answering those questions. The survey finds that the rate of violent crime in urban areas increased by 61% from 2019 to 2024.
That crime spike was found only in cities. In suburban and rural areas, the observed increase in violent crime over that same span—4% and 2%, respectively—wasn’t statistically significant.
In 2019, before George Floyd, pandemic closures and the defund-the-police movement, the rate of violent crime in urban areas was roughly identical to the rate nationwide. In 2024, the rate of violent crime in urban areas was 46% higher than the nationwide rate and 104% higher—more than double—the rural rate.
Property crime has long been more prevalent in cities than elsewhere, but that gap has widened. In 2019 the property-crime rate was 51% higher in urban areas than it was nationwide; in 2024 it was 86% higher. The number of property-crime victimizations in 2024 per 1,000 households was 181.6 in urban areas, 96.1 in suburban areas, and 48.3 in rural areas.
Rather than relying on police reports, the National Crime Victimization Survey asks U.S. residents whether they were a crime victim in recent months. If so, it asks about the nature of the crime, the demographics of those involved, and whether the crime was reported to police. The nation’s largest crime survey, it has been conducted since the Nixon administration.
One thing the survey can’t measure is homicide rates, as it’s a survey of victims. Murders are the easiest crime to count, however, so police statistics in this realm should be quite reliable. Homicide counts in two cities to which Mr. Trump has sent National Guardsmen largely match the survey findings for recent crime trends.
In the District of Columbia, the number of homicides rose 13% from 2019 to 2024 and 61% from 2017 to 2024. In Portland, Ore., homicides almost doubled from 2019 to 2024, to 71 from 36. While it’s true that both these cities had even more murders in 2021 and 2022 than in 2024, that shows how high their murder numbers spiked before falling back down somewhat.
As for the demographics of crime, the survey finds that the likelihood that whites, blacks and Hispanics will be victims of violent crimes essentially matches their percentage of the population. A majority (52%) of incidents involving black victims also featured black offenders, a result not true for any other racial group.
The primary reason black residents weren’t disproportionately likely to be crime victims—despite this high rate of intraracial crime—is that there are comparatively few crimes committed against black victims by white offenders. White residents made up 60% of the population yet were offenders in only 7% of incidents involving black victims.
The most overlooked U.S. crime story in recent years has been the huge crime spike in our cities. When violent crime doesn’t rise in suburban or rural areas but rises 61% in urban areas, that should be big news. Mr. Trump is right that American cities aren’t nearly as safe as they were before “systemic racism” became a familiar accusation and “defund the police” became a rallying cry.
Mr. Anderson is president of the American Main Street Initiative. He served as director of the Bureau of Justice Statistics, 2017-21.
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