lvhonglai
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The United States and China are already in a state of Cold War – A Discussion with Professor Wu Guoguang
I recently watched a video interview with Professor Wu Guoguang and the "Three Water Gunmen." The topic of the interview was: Has the US and China entered a new Cold War? In the interview, Professor Wu Guoguang stated that he does not agree with the view that the US and China have entered a new Cold War, and believes that the Cold War is not entirely the same as the current situation in essence, and does not yet possess the following two characteristics: First, the two camps of the Cold War were primarily opposed in terms of ideology and political system; the United States does not currently regard China as an adversary in terms of ideology and political system. Second, for the Cold War to form two camps, it is quite evident that authoritarian regimes led by the CCP have begun to band together, but the United States has not yet formed a clear political alliance with other democratic countries. These two points prove that the Cold War does not yet possess the basic characteristics of the Cold War.
An interview with Professor Wu Guoguang and the "Three Water Gunmen" (video screenshot)
Professor Wu Guoguang is a renowned political scientist, and his views are representative to a certain extent. The US-China relationship influences the global political landscape, relates to world security and stability, and is crucial to the future political development of Chinese society. Therefore, a correct understanding of the US-China relationship is of great political significance. I would like to take this opportunity to clarify my own views and discuss them with Professor Wu Guoguang:
To discuss the Cold War, we must first clarify its concept. What exactly is the Cold War? According to internet explanations, the Cold War is a general term for all hostile actions other than direct military combat. The nature of the Cold War is characterized by tense, severely antagonistic, and confrontational relations between the two sides. Its methods and means include: propaganda warfare, infiltration and subversion, blockades and sanctions, arms races, peaceful evolution, proxy wars, and all other methods other than direct military combat.
Secondly, the Cold War was not defined by public declarations, but rather by the existence of a fact and a state of affairs. Just like the two World Wars and the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union, neither side declared war beforehand; rather, objective facts proved that they were already in a state of conflict.
Furthermore, the Cold War was a bilateral conflict, a mutual confrontation, which could occur between two countries or between two political blocs.
Therefore, based on the nature and definition of the Cold War, and based on the current political, economic, and diplomatic situation between the United States and China, I believe that Professor Wu Guoguang's two basic characteristics—that the United States and China have not entered a new Cold War, and that the United States does not regard China as an opponent in terms of ideology and political system, and that the United States has not yet formed a clear political alliance with other democratic countries—are both untenable.
Lü Honglai: The United States and China are already in a state of Cold War – A Discussion with Professor Wu Guoguang
First, the fundamental ideological and political opposition between the United States and China is an objective fact known to all. The CCP's long-standing subversion, infiltration, sabotage, intellectual property theft, and drug export that harms American society are undeniable facts and constitute China's Cold War tactics against the United States. The reason people haven't clearly felt a Cold War between the US and China over the past thirty years is because the Western democratic camp, led by the United States, implemented a strategy of using economic integration to facilitate China's political transformation. However, this strategy has clearly failed, but this absolutely does not mean that there was no Cold War between the US and China.
Second, the United States has long formed political alliances with other Western democracies, such as NATO, the US-Japan-South Korea alliance, and alliances between the United States and other Asia-Pacific countries, such as the US-New Zealand-Ottoman alliance, the US-Philippines alliance, and the US-Taiwan alliance. These military and political alliances are based on political systems and ideologies and will not change due to changes in any specific policy.
Third, due to the failure of its strategy to facilitate China's political transformation through economic integration, the United States has recently readjusted its strategy towards China, designating China as its biggest strategic competitor and adopting a new strategy of deterrence, containment, restriction, and countermeasures. One can examine the series of bills targeting China passed by the US Senate and House of Representatives in the past two years:
* Taiwan Assurance Implementation Act
* Strategic Territorial Intelligence and Law Enforcement to Counter the CCP Act
Technology Transfer Controls with China Act of 2025
U.S.-China Artificial Intelligence Capabilities Decoupling Act
Protecting U.S. Innovation and Economic Security from the CCP Act of 2024
Countering the CCP's Drones Act
Ending China's Dominance in U.S. Electric Vehicles Act
Helping to Frustrate China Through Foreign Investment Assurance Act
U.S. Artificial Intelligence and China Decoupling Act
These bills, which are clearly aimed at, prevent, and counter the Chinese Communist Party regime, constitute the United States' Cold War against China.
Fourth, especially in its policy toward China, the strengthening of strategic competition, the safeguarding of core U.S. interests, the containment of the CCP's expansion, and the view of China as the U.S.'s biggest competitor and the greatest challenge and threat to the U.S. have become a broad consensus across the U.S. government and both parties. This demonstrates that a Cold War between the U.S. and China has become a broad consensus across the U.S. government and both parties, and it is not something that any individual can influence or change.
Fifth, the US-China trade war has far exceeded the scope of the two countries and has become an international economic war to contain China. Currently, all trade agreements signed by the US government with various countries include poison pill clauses to prevent the re-export of Chinese products and the laundering of country of origin. This means that all countries maintaining normal trade relations with the US have formed a united front to jointly prevent and contain China in international trade. What else is this but the Cold War?!
Sixth, just as I was preparing to write this article, the United States released the 2025 National Security Strategy report. The National Security Strategy report clearly states that the United States is focusing on the Western Hemisphere, which is considered to be a core area of U.S. interests, as well as the Indo-Pacific region, especially the Taiwan issue.
Regarding China and Taiwan, the 2025 National Security Strategy criticizes successive U.S. administrations for attempting to integrate China into the rules-based international order. The new strategy identifies China as a major economic and technological competitor and a potential military challenger, demanding that allies increase their investment and actively participate in collective defense, focusing their efforts on countering China's "predatory economic behavior" and avoiding direct military conflict through deterrence. This is tantamount to the U.S. openly declaring a new Cold War against the CCP regime!
Professor Wu Guoguang reached the above conclusion primarily because, based on the interview, he misunderstood some of the Trump administration's foreign policy and measures, overlooking the fact that the US government operates on a separation of powers. It should be pointed out that the Cold War was not initiated by anyone, but rather an inevitable consequence of two diametrically opposed ideologies and political systems being unable to coexist peacefully while simultaneously trying to avoid hot war.
Once the CCP's party-state system was established, it meant that the CCP had chosen to oppose human civilization, and it also meant the beginning of a cold war with the civilized world. However, due to strategic needs of both sides during a certain period of history, and the CCP's forced choice to reform and open up and to bide its time, this ideological and political conflict was eased.
Without changes to China's political system, genuine friendship between the US and China is impossible. The 40 years of reform and opening up have come to an end, and the strategic needs of both sides have long since disappeared, making an open Cold War inevitable. The Cold War is not something declared by anyone; it is a reality, a real contest and game between two ideologies, two values, and two political systems. Today, the question is no longer whether a Cold War exists between the US and China, but whether it will escalate further, and what the ultimate outcome of this zero-sum game will be.
Lu Honglai,
I recently watched a video interview with Professor Wu Guoguang and the "Three Water Gunmen." The topic of the interview was: Has the US and China entered a new Cold War? In the interview, Professor Wu Guoguang stated that he does not agree with the view that the US and China have entered a new Cold War, and believes that the Cold War is not entirely the same as the current situation in essence, and does not yet possess the following two characteristics: First, the two camps of the Cold War were primarily opposed in terms of ideology and political system; the United States does not currently regard China as an adversary in terms of ideology and political system. Second, for the Cold War to form two camps, it is quite evident that authoritarian regimes led by the CCP have begun to band together, but the United States has not yet formed a clear political alliance with other democratic countries. These two points prove that the Cold War does not yet possess the basic characteristics of the Cold War.
An interview with Professor Wu Guoguang and the "Three Water Gunmen" (video screenshot)
Professor Wu Guoguang is a renowned political scientist, and his views are representative to a certain extent. The US-China relationship influences the global political landscape, relates to world security and stability, and is crucial to the future political development of Chinese society. Therefore, a correct understanding of the US-China relationship is of great political significance. I would like to take this opportunity to clarify my own views and discuss them with Professor Wu Guoguang:
To discuss the Cold War, we must first clarify its concept. What exactly is the Cold War? According to internet explanations, the Cold War is a general term for all hostile actions other than direct military combat. The nature of the Cold War is characterized by tense, severely antagonistic, and confrontational relations between the two sides. Its methods and means include: propaganda warfare, infiltration and subversion, blockades and sanctions, arms races, peaceful evolution, proxy wars, and all other methods other than direct military combat.
Secondly, the Cold War was not defined by public declarations, but rather by the existence of a fact and a state of affairs. Just like the two World Wars and the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union, neither side declared war beforehand; rather, objective facts proved that they were already in a state of conflict.
Furthermore, the Cold War was a bilateral conflict, a mutual confrontation, which could occur between two countries or between two political blocs.
Therefore, based on the nature and definition of the Cold War, and based on the current political, economic, and diplomatic situation between the United States and China, I believe that Professor Wu Guoguang's two basic characteristics—that the United States and China have not entered a new Cold War, and that the United States does not regard China as an opponent in terms of ideology and political system, and that the United States has not yet formed a clear political alliance with other democratic countries—are both untenable.
Lü Honglai: The United States and China are already in a state of Cold War – A Discussion with Professor Wu Guoguang
First, the fundamental ideological and political opposition between the United States and China is an objective fact known to all. The CCP's long-standing subversion, infiltration, sabotage, intellectual property theft, and drug export that harms American society are undeniable facts and constitute China's Cold War tactics against the United States. The reason people haven't clearly felt a Cold War between the US and China over the past thirty years is because the Western democratic camp, led by the United States, implemented a strategy of using economic integration to facilitate China's political transformation. However, this strategy has clearly failed, but this absolutely does not mean that there was no Cold War between the US and China.
Second, the United States has long formed political alliances with other Western democracies, such as NATO, the US-Japan-South Korea alliance, and alliances between the United States and other Asia-Pacific countries, such as the US-New Zealand-Ottoman alliance, the US-Philippines alliance, and the US-Taiwan alliance. These military and political alliances are based on political systems and ideologies and will not change due to changes in any specific policy.
Third, due to the failure of its strategy to facilitate China's political transformation through economic integration, the United States has recently readjusted its strategy towards China, designating China as its biggest strategic competitor and adopting a new strategy of deterrence, containment, restriction, and countermeasures. One can examine the series of bills targeting China passed by the US Senate and House of Representatives in the past two years:
* Taiwan Assurance Implementation Act
* Strategic Territorial Intelligence and Law Enforcement to Counter the CCP Act
Technology Transfer Controls with China Act of 2025
U.S.-China Artificial Intelligence Capabilities Decoupling Act
Protecting U.S. Innovation and Economic Security from the CCP Act of 2024
Countering the CCP's Drones Act
Ending China's Dominance in U.S. Electric Vehicles Act
Helping to Frustrate China Through Foreign Investment Assurance Act
U.S. Artificial Intelligence and China Decoupling Act
These bills, which are clearly aimed at, prevent, and counter the Chinese Communist Party regime, constitute the United States' Cold War against China.
Fourth, especially in its policy toward China, the strengthening of strategic competition, the safeguarding of core U.S. interests, the containment of the CCP's expansion, and the view of China as the U.S.'s biggest competitor and the greatest challenge and threat to the U.S. have become a broad consensus across the U.S. government and both parties. This demonstrates that a Cold War between the U.S. and China has become a broad consensus across the U.S. government and both parties, and it is not something that any individual can influence or change.
Fifth, the US-China trade war has far exceeded the scope of the two countries and has become an international economic war to contain China. Currently, all trade agreements signed by the US government with various countries include poison pill clauses to prevent the re-export of Chinese products and the laundering of country of origin. This means that all countries maintaining normal trade relations with the US have formed a united front to jointly prevent and contain China in international trade. What else is this but the Cold War?!
Sixth, just as I was preparing to write this article, the United States released the 2025 National Security Strategy report. The National Security Strategy report clearly states that the United States is focusing on the Western Hemisphere, which is considered to be a core area of U.S. interests, as well as the Indo-Pacific region, especially the Taiwan issue.
Regarding China and Taiwan, the 2025 National Security Strategy criticizes successive U.S. administrations for attempting to integrate China into the rules-based international order. The new strategy identifies China as a major economic and technological competitor and a potential military challenger, demanding that allies increase their investment and actively participate in collective defense, focusing their efforts on countering China's "predatory economic behavior" and avoiding direct military conflict through deterrence. This is tantamount to the U.S. openly declaring a new Cold War against the CCP regime!
Professor Wu Guoguang reached the above conclusion primarily because, based on the interview, he misunderstood some of the Trump administration's foreign policy and measures, overlooking the fact that the US government operates on a separation of powers. It should be pointed out that the Cold War was not initiated by anyone, but rather an inevitable consequence of two diametrically opposed ideologies and political systems being unable to coexist peacefully while simultaneously trying to avoid hot war.
Once the CCP's party-state system was established, it meant that the CCP had chosen to oppose human civilization, and it also meant the beginning of a cold war with the civilized world. However, due to strategic needs of both sides during a certain period of history, and the CCP's forced choice to reform and open up and to bide its time, this ideological and political conflict was eased.
Without changes to China's political system, genuine friendship between the US and China is impossible. The 40 years of reform and opening up have come to an end, and the strategic needs of both sides have long since disappeared, making an open Cold War inevitable. The Cold War is not something declared by anyone; it is a reality, a real contest and game between two ideologies, two values, and two political systems. Today, the question is no longer whether a Cold War exists between the US and China, but whether it will escalate further, and what the ultimate outcome of this zero-sum game will be.
Lu Honglai,
