Statistikhengst
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As an adjunct to this thread, but with separate data:
Nevada Polling Results One America News Network
is claiming a poll by Gravis Marketing (R), showing Trump almost 13 points above the next GOPer, Scott Walker, in NEVADA:
Rounded, that's:
Donald Trump 28%
unsure: 20%
Scott Walker 15%
Ben Carson 8%
Jeb Bush 7%
Marco Rubio 5%
Rand Paul 4%
Ted Cruz 4%
Rick Perry 3%
Bobby Jindal 2%
Mike HUckabee 2%
Chris Christie 2%
George Pataki 1%
Carly Fiorina <1%
Lindsey graham <1%
Rick Santorum <1%
Margin: Don Trump +13
Indeed, it looks like Trump is stealing voters from Cruz.
On the Democratic side:
Rounded, that's:
Hillary Clinton 55%
Bernie Sanders 18%
Unsure: 12%
Elizabeth Warren: 8&
Joe Biden: 6%
Lincoln Chafee: 1%
Jim Webb: 1%
Martin O'Malley 0%
Margin: Clinton +37
The presidential matchups are not yet there, but how much do you want to bet they will show Hillary continuing to lead in NV (the last poll was released by Gravis on 23 February, 2015, five months ago, and showed Hillary ahead of all the then-declared candidates by +6 to +13) and that Trump will be among those doing the very worst against her?
70% of the population of NV is in Clark County (Las Vegas), which has a huge Latino population.
In 2004, Bush 43 lost the Latino vote by 21 points in NV and still narrowly won the state:
CNN.com Election 2004
Latinos were 10% of the electorate in Nevada in 2004.
In 2008, McCain lost the Latino vote to Obama by 54 points (22 to 76) and Obama carried the state with a +15 landslide margin.
Local Exit Polls - Election Center 2008 - Elections Politics from CNN.com
Latinos were 15% of the electorate in Nevada in 2008.
In 2012, Romney lost the Latino vote to Obama by 47 points (24 to 71) and Obama won the state by 6 points.
Latinos were 19% of the electorate in Nevada in 2012.
This poll from Gravis (R) only shows them as 16% of the survey group. They are being underrepresented.
In the Latino survey from Univison, which I published yesterday:
The Trumpian Divide IV 1st Latino poll with Trump for 2016 US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum
Hillary is currently beating the GOP by the following margins in NV:
Clinton 67 / Bush 24, margin = Clinton +43
Clinton 70 / Walker 21, margin = Clinton +49
Clinton 63 / Paul 29, margin = Clinton +34
Clinton 71 / Cruz 21, margin = Clinton +50
Clinton 68 / Rubio 25, margin = Clinton +43
Clinton's current Latino margins are in line with Obama's 2012 statistic. Against Walker and Cruz, she is between Obama's 2012 and 2008 statistics.
No weakening of the Latino vote in NV for the Democratic Party.
And Latinos are likely to be at least 22-23% of the NV electorate in 2016.
None of the 2016 candidates are even remotely close to George W. Bush's 2004 electoral statistic in NV. In order to win the state for the GOP, accounting for growth in the Latino vote since 2004, a GOP must get to UNDER -20 in the Latino vote in order to win this state.
So, when the presidential matchups come out in the next days, remember, Trump is way on top in the GOP primary polling, and is very likely going to get crushed by Clinton in the GE polling.
Wait and see.
Caveat: this is not the original Gravis .pdf. The have probably embargoed it to put out the presidential GE matchups together with this stuff in one blog posting.
Nevada Polling Results One America News Network
is claiming a poll by Gravis Marketing (R), showing Trump almost 13 points above the next GOPer, Scott Walker, in NEVADA:
Rounded, that's:
Donald Trump 28%
unsure: 20%
Scott Walker 15%
Ben Carson 8%
Jeb Bush 7%
Marco Rubio 5%
Rand Paul 4%
Ted Cruz 4%
Rick Perry 3%
Bobby Jindal 2%
Mike HUckabee 2%
Chris Christie 2%
George Pataki 1%
Carly Fiorina <1%
Lindsey graham <1%
Rick Santorum <1%
Margin: Don Trump +13
Indeed, it looks like Trump is stealing voters from Cruz.
On the Democratic side:
Rounded, that's:
Hillary Clinton 55%
Bernie Sanders 18%
Unsure: 12%
Elizabeth Warren: 8&
Joe Biden: 6%
Lincoln Chafee: 1%
Jim Webb: 1%
Martin O'Malley 0%
Margin: Clinton +37
The presidential matchups are not yet there, but how much do you want to bet they will show Hillary continuing to lead in NV (the last poll was released by Gravis on 23 February, 2015, five months ago, and showed Hillary ahead of all the then-declared candidates by +6 to +13) and that Trump will be among those doing the very worst against her?
70% of the population of NV is in Clark County (Las Vegas), which has a huge Latino population.
In 2004, Bush 43 lost the Latino vote by 21 points in NV and still narrowly won the state:
CNN.com Election 2004
Latinos were 10% of the electorate in Nevada in 2004.
In 2008, McCain lost the Latino vote to Obama by 54 points (22 to 76) and Obama carried the state with a +15 landslide margin.
Local Exit Polls - Election Center 2008 - Elections Politics from CNN.com
Latinos were 15% of the electorate in Nevada in 2008.
In 2012, Romney lost the Latino vote to Obama by 47 points (24 to 71) and Obama won the state by 6 points.
Latinos were 19% of the electorate in Nevada in 2012.
This poll from Gravis (R) only shows them as 16% of the survey group. They are being underrepresented.
In the Latino survey from Univison, which I published yesterday:
The Trumpian Divide IV 1st Latino poll with Trump for 2016 US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum
Hillary is currently beating the GOP by the following margins in NV:
Clinton 67 / Bush 24, margin = Clinton +43
Clinton 70 / Walker 21, margin = Clinton +49
Clinton 63 / Paul 29, margin = Clinton +34
Clinton 71 / Cruz 21, margin = Clinton +50
Clinton 68 / Rubio 25, margin = Clinton +43
Clinton's current Latino margins are in line with Obama's 2012 statistic. Against Walker and Cruz, she is between Obama's 2012 and 2008 statistics.
No weakening of the Latino vote in NV for the Democratic Party.
And Latinos are likely to be at least 22-23% of the NV electorate in 2016.
None of the 2016 candidates are even remotely close to George W. Bush's 2004 electoral statistic in NV. In order to win the state for the GOP, accounting for growth in the Latino vote since 2004, a GOP must get to UNDER -20 in the Latino vote in order to win this state.
So, when the presidential matchups come out in the next days, remember, Trump is way on top in the GOP primary polling, and is very likely going to get crushed by Clinton in the GE polling.
Wait and see.
Caveat: this is not the original Gravis .pdf. The have probably embargoed it to put out the presidential GE matchups together with this stuff in one blog posting.
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