There is increasing urgency for a stronger focus on adapting agriculture to future climate change. There are many potential adaptation options available at the management level, often variations of existing climate risk management. However, there are as yet relatively few studies that assess both the likely effectiveness and adoption rates of possible response strategies. A synthesis of studies for cropping systems indicates first that the potential benefits of adaptation in temperate and tropical wheat-growing systems are similar and substantial (averaging 18%), even though the likely adoption rates may differ; and second, that most of the benefits of marginal adaptations within existing systems accrue with moderate climate change, and there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation, including livelihood diversification, need to be considered. We argue that increased adaptation action will require integration of climate change risk with a more inclusive risk management framework, taking into account climate variability, market dynamics, and specific policy domains. Many barriers to adaptation exist; overcoming them will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach, covering a range of scales and issues, from individual farmer awareness to the establishment of more efficient markets. A crucial part of this approach is an adaptation assessment framework that can equitably engage farmers, agribusiness, and policymakers, leveraging off the substantial collective knowledge of agricultural systems, yet focusing on values of importance to stakeholders. To be effective, science must adapt, too, by continuing to review research needs and enhancing the central core integrative science in the communication and management tools developed with decision makers.
