The reason for the switch from coal and gas generation to renewables is purely economic. Even with energy storage backup, renewables are far less costly than coal or gas, and very much less costly than nuclear.
- U.S. coal generating capacity finished 2023 at 195,000 MW, down 4.6%
- U.S. coal power generating capacity has declined by 4.3% per year on average over the last decade
- 2023 U.S. coal generation came in at 676 GWh, down 19% versus 2022
- Declining coal generation is a two-part story - capacity is being retired and capacity factors for the remaining operating fleet are being pressured
- U.S. aggregate coal capacity factors were 38.7% in 2023, down from 44.6% in 2022
- EnerWrap expects U.S. coal capacity factors to take out all-time lows (38.0% in 2020 during COVID) in the near future, but also expect capacity factor declines to moderate, limiting coal-to-gas switching compared to prior years
Pressurized Coal
From over 300,000 MW of generating capacity in 2021, U.S. coal generating capacity is expected to decline to 140,000 MW by 2040 based on announced retirements.
ENERWRAP SPECIAL REPORT
www.enerwrap.com
Global coal use has declined slightly in the first half of 2025, despite a 16% increase since 2020. Much of this is due to less use by China and India as solar and wind are taking the place of coal.
"In the first half of 2025, global coal demand is estimated to have decreased slightly, by less than 1%, amid fluctuating trends across different regions. In China, weaker electricity demand growth and a surge in power output from renewables caused a decline in coal power generation. The small decline in China’s overall coal demand came despite growth in some sectors like chemicals. In India, expansion of wind and solar and an early monsoon resulting in stronger electricity generation from hydropower, and weaker electricity demand growth in the first half of 2025, pushed coal power generation – and overall coal demand – into decline from the high consumption levels seen in the same period a year earlier. By contrast, coal demand in the United States is estimated to have increased by 10% in the first half of 2025, driven by strong electricity demand and higher natural gas prices, which prompted some electricity generation to shift from gas to coal. In the European Union, coal demand grew in the first half of 2025 driven by the electricity sector, as a result of low wind and hydro output and higher gas prices."
Coal Mid-Year Update 2025 - Analysis and key findings. A report by the International Energy Agency.
www.iea.org