CDZ The Mortgage Deduction Cap, Migration and Natural Disasters

[william the wie]

Damage due to fires, snow, mudslides and other natural disasters may no longer be economically repairable within the blue wall because of SALT driving up the cost of living including home prices and construction costs. How fast will the tax base shrink in the mostly blue states, counties and municipalities where this is happening? And what will the response be, higher taxes, reduced services or both?

 

[mudwhistle]

Damage due to fires, snow, mudslides and other natural disasters may no longer be economically repairable within the blue wall because of SALT driving up the cost of living including home prices and construction costs. How fast will the tax base shrink in the mostly blue states, counties and municipalities where this is happening? And what will the response be, higher taxes, reduced services or both?

I guess the mismanagement by Democrats is about to bite them in the ass.

 

[william the wie]

Damage due to fires, snow, mudslides and other natural disasters may no longer be economically repairable within the blue wall because of SALT driving up the cost of living including home prices and construction costs. How fast will the tax base shrink in the mostly blue states, counties and municipalities where this is happening? And what will the response be, higher taxes, reduced services or both?

I guess the mismanagement by Democrats is about to bite them in the ass.

But what surprises me is that there are so few stories about this deduction compared to the Cap on SALT and nobody is talking about the consequences of the 20% tariffs included in the tax bill and what are the consequences of making them WTO compliant? This is the domestic political equivalent of total war. No wonder Pelosi is frothing at the mouth.

 

[Moonglow]

If you think only blue states are affected you better look at the red states that are treading water also....Trump and congress just introduced what we've not seen in a while, higher inflation..and you people praise them for this?

 

[task0778]

Damage due to fires, snow, mudslides and other natural disasters may no longer be economically repairable within the blue wall because of SALT driving up the cost of living including home prices and construction costs. How fast will the tax base shrink in the mostly blue states, counties and municipalities where this is happening? And what will the response be, higher taxes, reduced services or both?

I think you are significantly overestimating the negatives with respect to the new tax bill. First of all, the rich guys can still deduct up to 10 grand on the SALT plus the limit on the mortgage deduction, and if they're rich enough to pay for whatever is over and above that then they're rich enough not to really care. And they'll find ways to hide as much income as they can; some will leave, but maybe some will start to pressure lawmakers in their state to cut the state tax rates and property taxes, which is a good thing. I doubt the tax bill has much influence over how much you gotta pay for repairs.

As for the response, who knows? Those crazy liberals might raise taxes, and they're already cutting services. Some of those that can afford to leave are doing so, but they were already leaving before the tax bill was signed into law; I do agree that the shrinkage in the tax base is going to continue and it'll be interesting to see what happens in those blue wall states.

 

[task0778]

Damage due to fires, snow, mudslides and other natural disasters may no longer be economically repairable within the blue wall because of SALT driving up the cost of living including home prices and construction costs. How fast will the tax base shrink in the mostly blue states, counties and municipalities where this is happening? And what will the response be, higher taxes, reduced services or both?

I guess the mismanagement by Democrats is about to bite them in the ass.

But what surprises me is that there are so few stories about this deduction compared to the Cap on SALT and nobody is talking about the consequences of the 20% tariffs included in the tax bill and what are the consequences of making them WTO compliant? This is the domestic political equivalent of total war. No wonder Pelosi is frothing at the mouth.

What 20% tariff? I know of no such thing.

 

[Manonthestreet]

If you think only blue states are affected you better look at the red states that are treading water also....Trump and congress just introduced what we've not seen in a while, higher inflation..and you people praise them for this?

I didnt know we were in deflation.....that 4 buck gas and rising utility costs from Obama was great

 

[Moonglow]

If you think only blue states are affected you better look at the red states that are treading water also....Trump and congress just introduced what we've not seen in a while, higher inflation..and you people praise them for this?

I didnt know we were in deflation.....that 4 buck gas and rising utility costs from Obama was great

Dubya had some of that action also...I can't think of too many president's gas didn't fluctuate..

 

[Manonthestreet]

If you think only blue states are affected you better look at the red states that are treading water also....Trump and congress just introduced what we've not seen in a while, higher inflation..and you people praise them for this?

I didnt know we were in deflation.....that 4 buck gas and rising utility costs from Obama was great

Dubya had some of that action also...I can't think of too many president's gas didn't fluctuate..

but your utilities are never coming down........has food gone down....has housing....price of vehicles...case ya havent noticed significant inflation is all around

 

[task0778]

If you think only blue states are affected you better look at the red states that are treading water also....Trump and congress just introduced what we've not seen in a while, higher inflation..and you people praise them for this?

Yeah, we are, and why aren't you? Most middle and lower income taxpayers are going to pay less taxes, and we brought the US corporate tax rates down to be competitive with the rest of the world. Which means fewer US companies going offshore and more jobs created or saved here, and more economic growth than we got from Obama over his 8 years. Barely over 2% annually since the recession ended in June 2010, that doesn't cut it. A lot of experts are predicting economic growth to exceed 3% in 2018 with some estimates approaching 4% or higher, what's your problem with that?

 

[Moonglow]

If you think only blue states are affected you better look at the red states that are treading water also....Trump and congress just introduced what we've not seen in a while, higher inflation..and you people praise them for this?

I didnt know we were in deflation.....that 4 buck gas and rising utility costs from Obama was great

Dubya had some of that action also...I can't think of too many president's gas didn't fluctuate..

but your utilities are never coming down........has food gone down....has housing....price of vehicles...case ya havent noticed significant inflation is all around

In two years the results will be in...

 

[usmcstinger]

People are wising up and are leaving states like New York and California.

 

[william the wie]

Damage due to fires, snow, mudslides and other natural disasters may no longer be economically repairable within the blue wall because of SALT driving up the cost of living including home prices and construction costs. How fast will the tax base shrink in the mostly blue states, counties and municipalities where this is happening? And what will the response be, higher taxes, reduced services or both?

I guess the mismanagement by Democrats is about to bite them in the ass.

But what surprises me is that there are so few stories about this deduction compared to the Cap on SALT and nobody is talking about the consequences of the 20% tariffs included in the tax bill and what are the consequences of making them WTO compliant? This is the domestic political equivalent of total war. No wonder Pelosi is frothing at the mouth.

What 20% tariff? I know of no such thing.

It is not called a tariff, a final destination adjustment tax/adjustment to prevent outsourcing is part of the title. France called it a tariff and the WTO agreed. If you can find a readable source on the matter you are doing better than me. Like the fourth quarter start of the crash in Manhattan real estate this is something that gets reported in either bad nonsense or high policy wonk neither of which I am conversant in.

 

[task0778]

Damage due to fires, snow, mudslides and other natural disasters may no longer be economically repairable within the blue wall because of SALT driving up the cost of living including home prices and construction costs. How fast will the tax base shrink in the mostly blue states, counties and municipalities where this is happening? And what will the response be, higher taxes, reduced services or both?

I guess the mismanagement by Democrats is about to bite them in the ass.

But what surprises me is that there are so few stories about this deduction compared to the Cap on SALT and nobody is talking about the consequences of the 20% tariffs included in the tax bill and what are the consequences of making them WTO compliant? This is the domestic political equivalent of total war. No wonder Pelosi is frothing at the mouth.

What 20% tariff? I know of no such thing.

It is not called a tariff, a final destination adjustment tax/adjustment to prevent outsourcing is part of the title. France called it a tariff and the WTO agreed. If you can find a readable source on the matter you are doing better than me. Like the fourth quarter start of the crash in Manhattan real estate this is something that gets reported in either bad nonsense or high policy wonk neither of which I am conversant in.

You are I believe talking about the border adjustment tax what was bandied about when the tax bill was debated before it was passed. Far as I know, it's not in the final tax bill that was passed and signed into law.

 

[william the wie]

You are right that title is not in the final bill. But purportedly they just changed the title, slapped some cosmetic changes on in committee and buried it in arcane high Wonk. That is, last I heard, France's claim.

 

[william the wie]

While France may be wrong, when treasury needs more than a month to figure out withholding schedules I figure we got lots of surprises ahead and the French economic bureaucracies are quite fluent in high wonk so I suspect that they are right.

 

[mudwhistle]

Damage due to fires, snow, mudslides and other natural disasters may no longer be economically repairable within the blue wall because of SALT driving up the cost of living including home prices and construction costs. How fast will the tax base shrink in the mostly blue states, counties and municipalities where this is happening? And what will the response be, higher taxes, reduced services or both?

I guess the mismanagement by Democrats is about to bite them in the ass.

But what surprises me is that there are so few stories about this deduction compared to the Cap on SALT and nobody is talking about the consequences of the 20% tariffs included in the tax bill and what are the consequences of making them WTO compliant? This is the domestic political equivalent of total war. No wonder Pelosi is frothing at the mouth.

Democrats have been screwing over their voters for decades.....and then blaming it on the imaginary rich.
Now the fact that their states are living on the edge is going to become widely known.....they are using a fictional tell-all book as a launching point for bringing down Trump.
I don't think they realize they're playing with fire.....or maybe they're just crazy enough not to care.
This is what happens when you feel your media friends will let you get away with murder.

 

[william the wie]

Damage due to fires, snow, mudslides and other natural disasters may no longer be economically repairable within the blue wall because of SALT driving up the cost of living including home prices and construction costs. How fast will the tax base shrink in the mostly blue states, counties and municipalities where this is happening? And what will the response be, higher taxes, reduced services or both?

I guess the mismanagement by Democrats is about to bite them in the ass.

But what surprises me is that there are so few stories about this deduction compared to the Cap on SALT and nobody is talking about the consequences of the 20% tariffs included in the tax bill and what are the consequences of making them WTO compliant? This is the domestic political equivalent of total war. No wonder Pelosi is frothing at the mouth.

Democrats have been screwing over their voters for decades.....and then blaming it on the imaginary rich.
Now the fact that their states are living on the edge is going to become widely known.....they are using a fictional tell-all book as a launching point for bringing down Trump.
I don't think they realize they're playing with fire.....or maybe they're just crazy enough not to care.
This is what happens when you feel your media friends will let you get away with murder.

Damage due to fires, snow, mudslides and other natural disasters may no longer be economically repairable within the blue wall because of SALT driving up the cost of living including home prices and construction costs. How fast will the tax base shrink in the mostly blue states, counties and municipalities where this is happening? And what will the response be, higher taxes, reduced services or both?

I guess the mismanagement by Democrats is about to bite them in the ass.

But what surprises me is that there are so few stories about this deduction compared to the Cap on SALT and nobody is talking about the consequences of the 20% tariffs included in the tax bill and what are the consequences of making them WTO compliant? This is the domestic political equivalent of total war. No wonder Pelosi is frothing at the mouth.

Democrats have been screwing over their voters for decades.....and then blaming it on the imaginary rich.
Now the fact that their states are living on the edge is going to become widely known.....they are using a fictional tell-all book as a launching point for bringing down Trump.
I don't think they realize they're playing with fire.....or maybe they're just crazy enough not to care.
This is what happens when you feel your media friends will let you get away with murder.

True and their MSM fan base is mostly in LA, NY and DC, which is Ground zero when the Blue wall real estate crash hits.

My brother-in-Law who lives with his daughter in Albany NY has another daughter who lives in Oakland Hills CA they may all try to move in with us come 4/15/19. I don't think they will fit. Even with nine incomes including the granddaughters I suspect the nearest place they can afford to live in is WV or KY.

 

[task0778]

While France may be wrong, when treasury needs more than a month to figure out withholding schedules I figure we got lots of surprises ahead and the French economic bureaucracies are quite fluent in high wonk so I suspect that they are right.

I have yet to see any indication that the border adjustment tax by any name exists in the new tax bill. I know the French raised hell about it last spring, but I don't think it's in the final bill that was passed and signed. Gonna be a problem if is though, but nobody is talking about it and so I think it's dead.

About that SALT limit of 10 grand, just how big a deal are we talking about? Consider this, in 2014:

" About 10 percent of tax filers with incomes less than $50,000 claimed the SALT deduction in 2014, compared with about 81 percent of tax filers with incomes exceeding $100,000. The latter group, which made up about 16 percent of tax filers, accounted for about 75 percent of the total dollar amount of SALT deductions claimed. The average claim in this affluent group was of about $12,300. "

How does the deduction for state and local taxes work?

Sooo, the rich guys lose out on deducting an average of $2300 less on their federal taxes? Doesn't sound like a BFD to me.

 

[william the wie]

In red states like FL and TX I would agree but in states with major financial exchanges like NY and IL lack of SALT deductions could easily collapse not just the whole state but also adjoining states if the exchanges move to a lower SALT jurisdiction. That is why Cuomo is going to court over that deduction. Barring those two situations the Mortgage deduction cap is going to be the major motor of migration for the next few years.