The Great Hurricane Drought of 2025

[Sunsettommy]

Another failed warmest/alarmist failure as the Hurricanes are poor this year and few tropical development, the water temperature isn't problem at all which more than warm enough.

==============

Irrational Fear

The Great Hurricane Drought of 2025​

Exposing the Gap Between "Supercharged" Predictions and a Hurricane Season That Never Peaked​

Dr. Matthew Wielicki
Sep 16, 2025

Paid

Excerpt:

Free section (public)​

I’ve been monitoring the Colorado State University (CSU) real-time hurricane dashboard for weeks now: tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic. Scroll down to the storm-by-storm table and the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) plot; they tell a story that's far from the "supercharged" nightmare we've been sold.

Don't just take my word for it. Pull up the official 2025 storm list, then eye the ACE curve. ACE, accumulated cyclone energy, measures the total strength and duration of storms; it's like a season's energy scorecard. When no named storms form, the energy flatlines. On CSU's graph, you'll see that the stall is clear as day, especially through the peak around September 10th. The data? It's not matching the dire predictions.

Meanwhile, the media machine churns out alarmist headlines (while never mentioning the hurricane drought):

LINK

 

[excalibur]

We may get one within the next week.

But this has been the quietest in the satellite era, the quietest since 1939 in fact.

 

[PeterPilot]

Another failed warmest/alarmist failure as the Hurricanes are poor this year and few tropical development, the water temperature isn't problem at all which more than warm enough.

==============

Irrational Fear

The Great Hurricane Drought of 2025​

Exposing the Gap Between "Supercharged" Predictions and a Hurricane Season That Never Peaked​

Dr. Matthew Wielicki
Sep 16, 2025

Paid

Excerpt:

Free section (public)​

I’ve been monitoring the Colorado State University (CSU) real-time hurricane dashboard for weeks now: tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic. Scroll down to the storm-by-storm table and the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) plot; they tell a story that's far from the "supercharged" nightmare we've been sold.

Don't just take my word for it. Pull up the official 2025 storm list, then eye the ACE curve. ACE, accumulated cyclone energy, measures the total strength and duration of storms; it's like a season's energy scorecard. When no named storms form, the energy flatlines. On CSU's graph, you'll see that the stall is clear as day, especially through the peak around September 10th. The data? It's not matching the dire predictions.

Meanwhile, the media machine churns out alarmist headlines (while never mentioning the hurricane drought):

LINK

As one who has been living through hurricanes in Florida since 1950, the season ain't over yet honey!

 

[1srelluc]

It's not for lack of trying.

List of Florida beaches where people told to stay out of the water​

MSN

Hundreds of thousands of people along Florida's eastern coast were urged to stay out of the water on Tuesday amid dangerous rip currents.

"The winds are pretty calm, so it's not driven by winds blowing directly at the coast," National Weather Service (NWS) meteorologist Donal Harrigan, who works at the Miami office, told Newsweek. "It's swell from the low-pressure area in the western Atlantic. There are waves being generated far off near that low pressure and then funneled down the Eastern Seaboard. Those increased wave heights, when they reach the coast, churn up the surf and end up causing some increased rip [currents]."

Well no shit!

 

[White 6]

We may get one within the next week.

But this has been the quietest in the satellite era, the quietest since 1939 in fact.

I, for one, am glad. Maybe lumber and plywood prices will not spike, since it cannot be said, the supply is being diverted to the coast for hurricane damage.

 

[Polishprince]

Is a paucity of hurricane action a sure sign of Climate Change?

Quite a change for the climate scientists who used to say that climate change would mean lots more hurricanes?

 

[fncceo]

More hurricanes or fewer hurricanes are both equally convincing indicators of climate change.

A sunny day or a cloudy day are equivalent harbingers of doom.

Like any religious fundamentalist can tell you, every incident or lack of any incidents are all proof of his diety’s guiding hand.

 

[marvin martian]

Another failed warmest/alarmist failure as the Hurricanes are poor this year and few tropical development, the water temperature isn't problem at all which more than warm enough.

==============

Irrational Fear

The Great Hurricane Drought of 2025​

Exposing the Gap Between "Supercharged" Predictions and a Hurricane Season That Never Peaked​

Dr. Matthew Wielicki
Sep 16, 2025

Paid

Excerpt:

Free section (public)​

I’ve been monitoring the Colorado State University (CSU) real-time hurricane dashboard for weeks now: tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic. Scroll down to the storm-by-storm table and the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) plot; they tell a story that's far from the "supercharged" nightmare we've been sold.

Don't just take my word for it. Pull up the official 2025 storm list, then eye the ACE curve. ACE, accumulated cyclone energy, measures the total strength and duration of storms; it's like a season's energy scorecard. When no named storms form, the energy flatlines. On CSU's graph, you'll see that the stall is clear as day, especially through the peak around September 10th. The data? It's not matching the dire predictions.

Meanwhile, the media machine churns out alarmist headlines (while never mentioning the hurricane drought):

LINK

The demand for "global warming" is definitely much higher than the supply.

 

[ThunderKiss1965]

Another failed warmest/alarmist failure as the Hurricanes are poor this year and few tropical development, the water temperature isn't problem at all which more than warm enough.

==============

Irrational Fear

The Great Hurricane Drought of 2025​

Exposing the Gap Between "Supercharged" Predictions and a Hurricane Season That Never Peaked​

Dr. Matthew Wielicki
Sep 16, 2025

Paid

Excerpt:

Free section (public)​

I’ve been monitoring the Colorado State University (CSU) real-time hurricane dashboard for weeks now: tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic. Scroll down to the storm-by-storm table and the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) plot; they tell a story that's far from the "supercharged" nightmare we've been sold.

Don't just take my word for it. Pull up the official 2025 storm list, then eye the ACE curve. ACE, accumulated cyclone energy, measures the total strength and duration of storms; it's like a season's energy scorecard. When no named storms form, the energy flatlines. On CSU's graph, you'll see that the stall is clear as day, especially through the peak around September 10th. The data? It's not matching the dire predictions.

Meanwhile, the media machine churns out alarmist headlines (while never mentioning the hurricane drought):

LINK

They will use this. When there is a normal hurricane season the headlines will be screaming Worse than x number of seasons. If it is slightly more active than normal then it will be the 7 trumpets of the apocalypse.

 

[Sunsettommy]

As one who has been living through hurricanes in Florida since 1950, the season ain't over yet honey!

LOL, you didn't read the post which showed how unusually low it is this year and WHY it was that way which hasn't changed much with just one Tropical development ongoing in the Atlantic.

It is now down to 64% of the average for the date.

LINK

 

[EMH]

There is no evidence of a breakout in canes.

Strongest decade 1940s, second place 1890s...

U.S. Hurricane Strikes by Decade

but 9/16 is way to early to declare victory over a hurricane season...

 

[ding]

There is no evidence of a breakout in canes.

Strongest decade 1940s, second place 1890s...

U.S. Hurricane Strikes by Decade

but 9/16 is way to early to declare victory over a hurricane season...

You need to breakout your cane, old man.

 

[ReinyDays]

Don't hold your breath ...

We had a really bad drought here starting in September, so by December an emergency was declared ... the soonest local and state officials could get together was early February ... except we had massive rainfall through January, washed out roads type of deluge ... meeting canceled ... drought over ...

That's how weather works ...

 

[PeterPilot]

LOL, you didn't read the post which showed how unusually low it is this year and WHY it was that way which hasn't changed much with just one Tropical development ongoing in the Atlantic.

It is now down to 64% of the average for the date.

LINK

I don't doubt that because it's happened before. Nothing new under the sun sir.

 

[ding]

I don't doubt that because it's happened before. Nothing new under the sun sir.

Do you believe in catastrophic climate change due to an incremental 120 ppm of atmospheric CO2?

 

[Zincwarrior]

We may get one within the next week.

But this has been the quietest in the satellite era, the quietest since 1939 in fact.

Thread is stupid.
Gabrielle formed this morning. There is another forming on the Pacific side of Mexico also.

 

[Sunsettommy]

Thread is stupid.
Gabrielle formed this morning. There is another forming on the Pacific side of Mexico also.

Yet even in the Pacific side is below average for the date.

No, the thread is instructive in how few have formed to this date and now as we are a week past the peak of the average season still well below average even with a new storm it is only one in the Atlantic and it is a slow growing storm as it is predicted to take 4 days to reach hurricane strength but not predicted to make any landfall.

The prediction back in the spring was above average season but it is instead well below average.

 

[Zincwarrior]

Yet even in the Pacific side is below average for the date.

Below average to date. The season is getting longer.

EDIT: looks like another storm is potentially forming right behind Gabrielle.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

More hurricanes or fewer hurricanes are both equally convincing indicators of climate change.

A sunny day or a cloudy day are equivalent harbingers of doom.

Like any religious fundamentalist can tell you, every incident or lack of any incidents are all proof of his diety’s guiding hand.

Cosmic visitor 3I/Atlas is 85% CO2, surely a sign from the cosmos itself

 

[Sunsettommy]

Below average to date. The season is getting longer.

EDIT: looks like another storm is potentially forming right behind Gabrielle.

LOL, I am well aware of it as I have my own forum that helps track it.

Even with Gabrielle become a hurricane the season is still well below average and the season on average is winding down as the chart I posted shows it declines quite rapidly and the unfavorable conditions still persists which is why only one is making it and the other one a low chance.

Go see this link,

tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic