CDZ The GDP Number Today

[william the wie]

What's your guesstimate as to its size and effect on political elections, markets and the economy. I will go first:

4.X China will get very nervous about their chances of winning the trade war and that will have major effects in northeast Asia.

 

[candycorn]

What's your guesstimate as to its size and effect on political elections, markets and the economy. I will go first:

4.X China will get very nervous about their chances of winning the trade war and that will have major effects in northeast Asia.

One of the reasons the quarterly GDP numbers were so large was that there was a rush of purchasing prior to the tariffs went into effect——done in part by China. China isn’t nervous about a trade war. Wal Mart is nervous. We have something like a $350B deficit with China. Wal Mart Stores imports about $50B of that themselves; one dollar in seven of the deficit. Tariffs on imports are going to force them to either accept a smaller profit margin or raise their prices.

 

[Toronado3800]

What's your guesstimate as to its size and effect on political elections, markets and the economy. I will go first:

4.X China will get very nervous about their chances of winning the trade war and that will have major effects in northeast Asia.

This round of US elections is pretty close to the last one so I don't think we'll see any great change.

I think the plight of those "uneducated" masses or the labor vote is more important than that GDP number. Any GDP increase will provide a bit of a boost BUT, making Carl Icahn more money only gets Trump one or two votes. Making an assembly line of GM employees more money gets him quite a few.

If the trickle down effect is minimal and the masses are no better off the GOP can blame Obama for 2018 and say their policies will fix 2019.

If the effect is strong then the GOP and especially Trump will take full credit for them round things we are all driving on so to say

Is China central Asia? They'll care when it hurts their bottom line. Will their exports to Africa, Australia, and wherever offset any losses in the U.S.? Its a global economy.

Northeast Asia? Siberia or Korea? The North Koreans are gonna be happy with any easing of sanctions. That place is such an economic mess if the world went into the Great Depression II and they were allowed to enjoy it equally they'd think it was an improvement. South Korea....I dunno. Siberia, I guess we're still undermining the place trying to talk them into a capitalistic revolution?

 

[william the wie]

I think you are over-complicating things. Importing pipeline grade steel from the EU rather than China has huge knock on effects as in China, Russia and Iran will be paying a premium to get US beef while energy prices decline due to US exports to the EU. And pay-scales in the oil patch are major league big with huge knock on effects.

 

[2aguy]

What's your guesstimate as to its size and effect on political elections, markets and the economy. I will go first:

4.X China will get very nervous about their chances of winning the trade war and that will have major effects in northeast Asia.

One of the reasons the quarterly GDP numbers were so large was that there was a rush of purchasing prior to the tariffs went into effect——done in part by China. China isn’t nervous about a trade war. Wal Mart is nervous. We have something like a $350B deficit with China. Wal Mart Stores imports about $50B of that themselves; one dollar in seven of the deficit. Tariffs on imports are going to force them to either accept a smaller profit margin or raise their prices.

Yes....tell that to the E.U.......One expert I heard today pointed out that China is in a bad position, and they can't win a trade war with us......

 

[william the wie]

What's your guesstimate as to its size and effect on political elections, markets and the economy. I will go first:

4.X China will get very nervous about their chances of winning the trade war and that will have major effects in northeast Asia.

One of the reasons the quarterly GDP numbers were so large was that there was a rush of purchasing prior to the tariffs went into effect——done in part by China. China isn’t nervous about a trade war. Wal Mart is nervous. We have something like a $350B deficit with China. Wal Mart Stores imports about $50B of that themselves; one dollar in seven of the deficit. Tariffs on imports are going to force them to either accept a smaller profit margin or raise their prices.

Yes....tell that to the E.U.......One expert I heard today pointed out that China is in a bad position, and they can't win a trade war with us......

More importantly they can't win or even surrender fast enough to avoid massive market share losses.

 

[candycorn]

What's your guesstimate as to its size and effect on political elections, markets and the economy. I will go first:

4.X China will get very nervous about their chances of winning the trade war and that will have major effects in northeast Asia.

This round of US elections is pretty close to the last one so I don't think we'll see any great change.

I think the plight of those "uneducated" masses or the labor vote is more important than that GDP number. Any GDP increase will provide a bit of a boost BUT, making Carl Icahn more money only gets Trump one or two votes. Making an assembly line of GM employees more money gets him quite a few.

If the trickle down effect is minimal and the masses are no better off the GOP can blame Obama for 2018 and say their policies will fix 2019.

If the effect is strong then the GOP and especially Trump will take full credit for them round things we are all driving on so to say

Is China central Asia? They'll care when it hurts their bottom line. Will their exports to Africa, Australia, and wherever offset any losses in the U.S.? Its a global economy.

Northeast Asia? Siberia or Korea? The North Koreans are gonna be happy with any easing of sanctions. That place is such an economic mess if the world went into the Great Depression II and they were allowed to enjoy it equally they'd think it was an improvement. South Korea....I dunno. Siberia, I guess we're still undermining the place trying to talk them into a capitalistic revolution?

The WSJ reported that 800M was put into Indian stock markets. Not by other nations…by Indians themselves. If there ever was a time for foreign aid to generate sales for American products and services; it’s now.

India’s Insulated Stock Market Powers Ahead