According to the Washington Post, 6 Oct 10, Mullah Omar, the Taliban leader, supports talks with the Karzai Government which is seeking an end to the war. The US also supports the parties efforts to engage. The US stated it won't participant directly in the talks.
This is a good sign. That's the way the Vietnam war was ended for us. We were able to leave and then North Vietnam invaded the south and won.
So it will be again, we will take the opportunity to leave and the taliban will proceed to overthrow the Afghan government.
However, the contrast between the North Vietnamese and the Taliban's approach to governing is polar opposite.
The NV embraced capitalism (of sorts), was tolerant of religion, and joined the world community as a responsible nation.
The Taliban is a different entity, melding a fundamentalist religion with it's heavy handed law in an age of tolerance, liberalism and equality (not absolute, but moving in that direction). They are not an industrialized nation but one of rural farmers, animal herders, and small shops.
I hope we don't make the mistake of trying to get involved in their internal affairs when this two step change occurs.