Shots Fired At DMZ Korea Today: Analysis

Annie

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Jong-Il is unpredictable, I'm more of the mindset that he really believes he can blackmail the sanctions away:

http://www.captainsquartersblog.com/mt/archives/008231.php

October 07, 2006
DMZ Tensions Escalate

With Kim Jong-Il threatening a nuclear test and his neighbors demanding that he stop the preparations for it, tensions have mounted at the DMZ separating North and South Korea. This morning, an incursion by a handful of DPRK soldiers resulted in warning shots by South Korean troops:

On the frontier between North and South Korea, South Korean soldiers fired warning shots after five North Korean soldiers crossed a boundary in the Demilitarized Zone separating the countries' forces, South Korean military officials said.

It was unclear whether the North Korean advance, which happened shortly before noon local time, was intended as a provocation, an official at South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said on condition of anonymity, citing official policy. No one was hurt, and the North Koreans retreated.

"It's not clear whether it was intentional or whether it was to catch fish," he said, adding four North Koreans were unarmed and the fifth carried a rifle.

They advanced about 30 yards past the Military Demarcation Line separating the two armies before retreating after South Korean forces fired about 40 warning shots, the official said.
Things fall apart, the center does not hold, as Yeats wrote, and the world has no more visible center than the Korean DMZ. It has remained in force for a surprising amount of time, given the fundamental differences between North and South Korea. Fifty-three years have passed since the end of formal warfare on the Korean Peninsula, but the Korean War has never ended. It seems as though Kim Jong-Il wants to either restart it or end it completely on his own terms, and that time may be running out for any rational conclusion to the conflict.

His neighbors apparently have the same analysis.
Almost all of them warned Pyongyang that a nuclear test would fundamentally alter their approach to security in the Pacific Rim. Japan announced that it would seek immediate and significant sanctions against North Korea if Kim carries out his nuclear test, and given the direction of the new government, they may start remilitarizing to meet the threat. Japan's UN ambassador even hinted at military action. Philippines President Gloria Arroyo warned Kim about Asian security. Even South Korea fired off a rare diplomatic warning shot, announcing that North Korea would bear responsibility for the consequences of a nuclear test.

China remained officially mum about such consequences, but told the press that only the removal of recent American sanctions would convince Kim to skip the test. These sanctions, CQ readers will recall, got imposed because of Kim's massive counterfeiting operation that targets the US. We cut out Kim's banking front from the international financial community, making it difficult for him to flood the market with the phony currency. The Chinese and the DPRK can forget about us making Pyongyang an unofficial new mint for the US, so the Chinese had better come up with Plan B.

Just like with Iran, the applications of sanctions would probably do some good in giving a cold slap of reality to a regime that believes its own press too much. Just like Iran, Russia and China seem unwilling to move towards that step. One has to wonder when -- or if -- both nations will acknowledge the danger from Kim's nuclear arrogance, or whether the other Asian nations will have to act on their own to counter it.

UPDATE: Yeats, not Eliot, wrote "the center does not hold". Yikes! It's been far too long since my English-lit class in high school. Thanks to Vasily in the comments for making the correction.
Posted by Captain Ed at 07:17 AM
 

akiboy

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Lets just bomb the shit outta Kim and his nukes. If he wants war why not give it to him???? Even Japan is hinting towards military action. And if China interferes we tell it to shut up and sit back. Its always sanction,sanctions,sanctions.. It doesn't have any effect on N.Korea.
That nation survives just because of its military might.

I say forward my friends , forward :dev1:



Akshay
 

Gunny

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yup----even China cant do anything about it I'm afraid
To put it in context, the situation is just more under the microscope right now. There have ALWAYS been "shots being fired" across the DMZ. Probably one of the first warnings you get anytime you are going anywhere near it.
 

USMCDevilDog

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We keep anticipating this war (ww3, war with Iran, war with N. Korea, whatever) and it seems like it's just being pushed aside over and over again by the UN and these fucking countries that don't want a war and it's just gonna get worse until the enemy countries just go at it and start a war...wtf is going on man.
 
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Annie

Annie

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We keep anticipating this war (ww3, war with Iran, war with N. Korea, whatever) and it seems like it's just being pushed aside over and over again by the UN and these fucking countries that don't want a war and it's just gonna get worse until the enemy countries just go at it and start a war...wtf is going on man.
On that we agree. GW's initial reactions usually seem good to me, they he tries to act like we'll get 'help' if we do the UN/diplomacy things right. Well, fool me once, fool me twice, fool me how many times? :shocked:
 

dilloduck

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We keep anticipating this war (ww3, war with Iran, war with N. Korea, whatever) and it seems like it's just being pushed aside over and over again by the UN and these fucking countries that don't want a war and it's just gonna get worse until the enemy countries just go at it and start a war...wtf is going on man.
All coming down to brinksmanship-----who can afford to blink and who can't
 

Gunny

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We keep anticipating this war (ww3, war with Iran, war with N. Korea, whatever) and it seems like it's just being pushed aside over and over again by the UN and these fucking countries that don't want a war and it's just gonna get worse until the enemy countries just go at it and start a war...wtf is going on man.
That's where history comes in. Hitler had engulfed most of Europe and the Japanese most of the Far East and it STILL took them destroying our Pacific Fleet to galvanize the lead-bottom ostriches.

It's just that mentality .... it doesn't matter if you complete raze the rest of the wrold as long as you aren't standing 3 feet from me with a baseball bat, you aren't a threat to my own little world.
 

USMCDevilDog

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That's where history comes in. Hitler had engulfed most of Europe and the Japanese most of the Far East and it STILL took them destroying our Pacific Fleet to galvanize the lead-bottom ostriches.

It's just that mentality .... it doesn't matter if you complete raze the rest of the wrold as long as you aren't standing 3 feet from me with a baseball bat, you aren't a threat to my own little world.
Good way of putting it...I just wish we could take care of this while I'm alive so my children don't have to worry about this shit. I'll be in the Marines in less then a year, so let's get this shit rolling and take care of it before my sons and daughters don't have to.
 

Gunny

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Good way of putting it...I just wish we could take care of this while I'm alive so my children don't have to worry about this shit. I'll be in the Marines in less then a year, so let's get this shit rolling and take care of it before my sons and daughters don't have to.
Thinking in a little more stategic terms, we need to take care of it while we are capable of taking care of it. Once Iran announces they have a nuke with an operational delivery system, the ante goes WAY up. N Korea however, is a joke. That little faggot is pushing for concessions. It's how he does business. Problem with his strategy is, he has to up the ante each time. He's too stupid to realize he's going to reach the point where somebody calls "bullshit" and considers him a real threat and he'll get his ass waxed quick.

And China isn't stupid. They realize they can't control Kim. So why not sit back and let us do their dirty work? They may piss and moan in the UN and the media publicly just because both Russia and China feel obligated to publicly denounce us, but they'll sit back and watch.
 

Hamiltonian

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Lets just bomb the shit outta Kim and his nukes. If he wants war why not give it to him???? Even Japan is hinting towards military action. And if China interferes we tell it to shut up and sit back. Its always sanction,sanctions,sanctions.. It doesn't have any effect on N.Korea.
That nation survives just because of its military might.

I say forward my friends , forward :dev1:



Akshay

Japan is more than hinting at military action. The trouble with just going in and attacking North Korea is that they can destroy the Asian economy (and world) economy fairly quickly if they want to. North Korea is a joke offensively, and aren't very threatening. It is highly unlikely that they will initiate a war, so that's why we're letting it be.

The food sanctions are pretty stupid. All of the people we're trying to punish, like Kim Jong Il, don't see much of the food shortage. Only the people too unfortunate to be living in his country do.


GunnyL said:
Thinking in a little more stategic terms, we need to take care of it while we are capable of taking care of it. Once Iran announces they have a nuke with an operational delivery system, the ante goes WAY up. N Korea however, is a joke. That little faggot is pushing for concessions. It's how he does business. Problem with his strategy is, he has to up the ante each time. He's too stupid to realize he's going to reach the point where somebody calls "bullshit" and considers him a real threat and he'll get his ass waxed quick.
I agree that North Korea is a joke. However, Kim Jong Il is doing missile and nuclear testing more from pressure inside his country than him trying to gain international concessions. Kim Jong Il sits at the head of the military, and he has to keep those under him happy by weapons testing if he wants to keep his position.
 

Gunny

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Japan is more than hinting at military action. The trouble with just going in and attacking North Korea is that they can destroy the Asian economy (and world) economy fairly quickly if they want to. North Korea is a joke offensively, and aren't very threatening. It is highly unlikely that they will initiate a war, so that's why we're letting it be.

The food sanctions are pretty stupid. All of the people we're trying to punish, like Kim Jong Il, don't see much of the food shortage. Only the people too unfortunate to be living in his country do.




I agree that North Korea is a joke. However, Kim Jong Il is doing missile and nuclear testing more from pressure inside his country than him trying to gain international concessions. Kim Jong Il sits at the head of the military, and he has to keep those under him happy by weapons testing if he wants to keep his position.
Could be. The ultimate goal however, is to get some freebies from the US. I really don't see the point to N Korea needing nukes. It's based on an imagined threat of US invasion. Nukes or not, if we decided to invade, there would be little they coul do to stop us. Their having nukes just simplifies the choice of weapons and tactics.

What really kills me is these guys like Kim Jong il, Saddam, and Iran play the game ass-backward. All they'd really have to do is make some political concessions towards democracy and and start calling themselves reformists and ask for our help and we'd give them bazillions of dollars while they pretty much carried on business as usual with Jimmy Carter holding the banner, arms wide open on the welcome wagon.

Look at Khadaffi .... terrorist supporting scumbag one day -- reformist buddy to the US the next just by saying he won't support terrorism anymore; which, is akin to Saudi Arabia not supporting terrorism.

If you're going to play the game, at least be smart enough to play ti without getting your clock cleaned.
 
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Annie

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Some analysis:

http://www.austinbay.net/blog/index.php?p=1469

10/8/2006
Meanwhile, at the Chinese-North Korean border…
Filed under:

* General

— site admin @ 9:59 am

StrategyPage and others have written about China’s border troubles with North Korea. Today the London Times publishes an informative and at times utterly graphic article. The article indicates China has deployed new military units in the border region.

Here’s the lede, and part of the more graphic description:

THE North Korean refugee had one request for her captors before the young Chinese soldiers led her back across the steel-girdered bridge on the Yalu River that divides two “socialist allies”.

“She asked for a comb and some water because she said that if she was going to die she could not face going to heaven looking as dirty and dishevelled as this,” recounted a relative of one soldier who was there.


What happened next is testimony to the rising disgust in Chinese military ranks as Beijing posts more troops to the border amid a crisis with North Korea over its regime’s plan to stage a nuclear test.

The soldiers, who later told family members of the incident, marched the woman, who was about 30, to the mid-point of the bridge. North Korean guards were waiting. They signed papers for receipt of the woman, who kept her dignity until that moment. Then, in front of the Chinese troops, one seized her and another speared her hand — the soft part between thumb and forefinger — with the point of a sharpened steel cable, which he twisted into a leash.

“She screamed just like a pig when we kill it at home in the village,” the soldier later told his relative. “Then they dragged her away.”

Such stories are circulating widely among Chinese on the border, where wild rumours of an American attack on nuclear test sites have spread fears of a Chernobyl-type cloud of radiation and sparked indignation at the North Koreans. “I’ve heard it a hundred times over that when we send back a group they stab each one with steel cable, loop it under the collarbone and out again, and yoke them together like animals,” said an army veteran with relatives in service.


China has allowed Western reporters to visit the border area, but this is a particularly graphic report. I suspect China is letting reporters operate on a longer leash– hence the access to troops in the border region. This sends a message to Pyongyang.

The Chinese are worried about a potential influx of North Korean refugees. They are also vexed with counterfeit US currency coming from North Korea and (quote) “…vast quantities of fake Viagra from North Korea.”

Fake cash and fake drugs — the exports of a failed state seeking nuclear weapons.

Note the article’s last line — South Korea fears that –in the midst of a Chinese-North Korean military confrontation– China may take a slice of Korean territory. It’s happened before.

The sense that Kim’s regime is losing control lies behind the Chinese military buildup. But some South Korean MPs fear China could grab territory from the north in the event of a collapse.


Read the entire article.

I just heard a television report that North Korea is “reconsidering” its threat to test a nuclear weapon. Pyongyang wants face to face negotiations with the US in return for no detonation. This is an NoKo old demand, and a gimmick. The propaganda gimmick: if the US declines face to face negotiations then the NoKo test is the result of the US refusal. If the US agrees then Kim’s regime touts it as a huge dimplomatic victory, won by threatening nuclear war. In six or eight months, Pyongyang will pull the same extortion gambit once again.

Pyongyang has a lot to reconsider. China and Japan are holding very serious talks in Beijing, talks the Chinese had called “a turning point” in Chinese-Japanese relations.

From the Bloomberg report:

Japan and China agreed to improve frayed relations and said North Korea must not test a nuclear weapon in newly elected Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s first visit to Beijing.

China’s President Hu Jintao and Abe agreed that North Korea must return to six-party talks aimed at aimed at dismantling the country’s arms program, a Japanese government official said. North Korea on Oct. 3 said it would test a nuclear bomb, prompting a unanimous United Nations Security Council resolution urging Kim Jong Il’s government to abandon its plan…​

Note China and Japan are insisting that North Korea return to the six party talks– in other words, they oppose North Korea’s demand for one on one talks with the US.
Which is really serious, since they recognize the US will not do face-to-face, which was called for not that long ago.
 
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Annie

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I see a regime change in the works for N. Korea. I'm really happy China is talking with Japan again and agrees on N. Korea..good shit.
Yeah, now if one can stop the backstabbing of the other, we may get somewhere...
 

Hamiltonian

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Could be. The ultimate goal however, is to get some freebies from the US. I really don't see the point to N Korea needing nukes. It's based on an imagined threat of US invasion. Nukes or not, if we decided to invade, there would be little they coul do to stop us. Their having nukes just simplifies the choice of weapons and tactics.

What really kills me is these guys like Kim Jong il, Saddam, and Iran play the game ass-backward. All they'd really have to do is make some political concessions towards democracy and and start calling themselves reformists and ask for our help and we'd give them bazillions of dollars while they pretty much carried on business as usual with Jimmy Carter holding the banner, arms wide open on the welcome wagon.

Look at Khadaffi .... terrorist supporting scumbag one day -- reformist buddy to the US the next just by saying he won't support terrorism anymore; which, is akin to Saudi Arabia not supporting terrorism.

If you're going to play the game, at least be smart enough to play ti without getting your clock cleaned.
North Korea's ultimate goal, I believe, is to reunite with South Korea. I know that is what SK would like, and NK claims it would also like that. The NK population would generally like this as well, as a good number of families were split up in the two countries. The population sees the US forces in SK as a barrier to the integration, partially because it does delay the integration (although I'm not saying we should remove our forces, they're just going to have to deal with it), and partially through years of government brainwashing. I don't think the population would be for their government playing the game with the rest of the US. Political forces in NK can use public opinion to their advantage to take control, without using a Democratic process.

North Korea doesn't need nukes, but the military always wants bigger and better weapons, which you are probably familiar with. Kim Jong Il really has to keep the military happy if he wants control. Now there's no question that we could easily take NK in a war, but if attacked they can do a lot of damage to Seoul and Japan, two large centers of the Asian economy. Ruining the Asian and World economy would definately make things more miserable for the US, so it's one way North Korea hopes to achieve MAD, or at least make things bad for the US if we attack. Kim Jong Il is betting this is how he can keep playing a game without getting his clock cleaned.
 

Gunny

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North Korea's ultimate goal, I believe, is to reunite with South Korea. I know that is what SK would like, and NK claims it would also like that. The NK population would generally like this as well, as a good number of families were split up in the two countries. The population sees the US forces in SK as a barrier to the integration, partially because it does delay the integration (although I'm not saying we should remove our forces, they're just going to have to deal with it), and partially through years of government brainwashing. I don't think the population would be for their government playing the game with the rest of the US. Political forces in NK can use public opinion to their advantage to take control, without using a Democratic process.

I don't think SKorea wants reunification under the political ideiology of the North. And like the US allegedly "losing in Iraq," that S Koreans want us gone is a grossly exaggerated event. Perhaps the liberals in the city do becuase liberals usually haven't got a good grasp on reality, but the people I met in S Korea were all damned glad we were there.

North Korea doesn't need nukes, but the military always wants bigger and better weapons, which you are probably familiar with. Kim Jong Il really has to keep the military happy if he wants control. Now there's no question that we could easily take NK in a war, but if attacked they can do a lot of damage to Seoul and Japan, two large centers of the Asian economy. Ruining the Asian and World economy would definately make things more miserable for the US, so it's one way North Korea hopes to achieve MAD, or at least make things bad for the US if we attack. Kim Jong Il is betting this is how he can keep playing a game without getting his clock cleaned.
That's a damned good argument for a preemptive strike. I like it.:clap:
 

Hamiltonian

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I don't think SKorea wants reunification under the political ideiology of the North. And like the US allegedly "losing in Iraq," that S Koreans want us gone is a grossly exaggerated event. Perhaps the liberals in the city do becuase liberals usually haven't got a good grasp on reality, but the people I met in S Korea were all damned glad we were there.

That's a damned good argument for a preemptive strike. I like it.:clap:
No, but NK is much more likely to reunify under the ideology of SK, because South Korea has been much more diplomatically and economically successful. Also, I don't think that the military is too happy with Kim Jong Il, which is why he has to do all of this testing to retain support. The South Korean political system is much more stable, although it has its corruption.

The South Koreans don't really want us gone, it's the North Koreans. While the South Koreans don't really want us gone, the the majority of South Koreans I know, which is not a small amount, don't look favorably upon the US troops. They see the bad apples, the occasional US serviceman who gets drunk and goes driving and runs over a South Korean, and the image of all of our good troops suffers because of those few bad ones. The liberals of the city do want the US troops gone altogether though, but I have to say I found this viewpoint much more often in the countryside around the DMZ than I found it in Seoul. I have seen a number of shirts that say "Return to America" or the equivalent during my time in South Korea.

They can still wreck a large part of the Asian economy without nukes. Seoul and Western Japan, maybe even Tokyo, are well within their range. I can only see North Korea attacking these countries in retaliation to a preemptive strike, as they've had the ability to do this to the economy for a long time, and wrecking these cities doesn't help them, it just hurts them.
 

Gunny

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No, but NK is much more likely to reunify under the ideology of SK, because South Korea has been much more diplomatically and economically successful. Also, I don't think that the military is too happy with Kim Jong Il, which is why he has to do all of this testing to retain support. The South Korean political system is much more stable, although it has its corruption.

As long as the military controls N Korea, there will not be reunification under S Korean ideology.

The South Koreans don't really want us gone, it's the North Koreans. While the South Koreans don't really want us gone, the the majority of South Koreans I know, which is not a small amount, don't look favorably upon the US troops. They see the bad apples, the occasional US serviceman who gets drunk and goes driving and runs over a South Korean, and the image of all of our good troops suffers because of those few bad ones. The liberals of the city do want the US troops gone altogether though, but I have to say I found this viewpoint much more often in the countryside around the DMZ than I found it in Seoul. I have seen a number of shirts that say "Return to America" or the equivalent during my time in South Korea.

I guess my next question would have to be "when" were you last in S Korea? I haven't been there since 1984. I was near the DMZ, and didn't notice the "Yankee Go Home" attitudes.

They can still wreck a large part of the Asian economy without nukes. Seoul and Western Japan, maybe even Tokyo, are well within their range. I can only see North Korea attacking these countries in retaliation to a preemptive strike, as they've had the ability to do this to the economy for a long time, and wrecking these cities doesn't help them, it just hurts them.
My idea of preemptive strike precludes the ability to retaliate.;)
 

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