So you were changing the subject. Got it.
Frankly, I don’t think it matters who is elected this year. Ten seconds after they’re sworn in, they are Lame Ducks. The battles begin to become the next nominee. The campaign for 28 begins January 21 2025. Honestly, best case scenario for Trump is that he gets one or two seats in the Senate as the Majority. Possibly five or ten seats in the House. In other words, the Republicans will have to march in Lock Step to get Trump any legislation. That’s not going to happen. He’s already made too many enemies.
So Trump gets elected, half of the appointments don’t get acted on, he gets no legislative action, and all he can do is rant and rave about Biden, who is out of office in Delaware. Of course, the great thing is going to be watching the same Republicans who swear that going after a Former President is just wrong, will be after Biden. I’ll be laughing, because I don’t care if Biden is gone after.
Additionally Trump is 77 years old, and the odds that he survives the entire term is about a coin toss. He’s already showing cognitive decline that you guys are quick to point out in Biden and ignore in Trump. That’s why I don’t take you all too seriously, you aren’t issue driven, or core belief driven. You’re just driven by hatred.
Now, back to Kari Lake. Your buddy was quick to point out Rasmussen polls, none of which have been conducted since February.
Those had one more than a thousand people, and apparently were the gold standard of polls. Or something.
ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.
projects.fivethirtyeight.com
Don’t like that link? Ok. Let’s get you another.
2024 Arizona Senate - Lake vs. Gallego | RealClearPolling
www.realclearpolling.com
I don’t normally link to RCP because they don’t include Rasmussen after Rasmussen couldn’t or wouldn’t explain their methodology to RCP. But whatever.
The question in Arizona is important because it concerns control of the Senate. Right now, the Republicans are looking at controlling 50 seats. That with the VP will let them, if they walk in lock step, pass legislation and confirm judges. But, if the Democrats pick up the three remaining seats, the toss ups, the Republicans will be stuck with fifty seats and the VP as the tie breaker.
That limits what Trump can do. And Lake is one of those three. The other two are Montana, and Ohio. In both of those the Democrat is holding a slim lead.
The House is similarly close in control in polling. It is probable that the Republicans will have another round of slim majority without the ability to really ram through any legislation, and if tradition holds, the Party in the White House loses seats in the midterms. That means Trump would only have two years to get legislation through he wanted.
At the same time, Trump would have the same economic problems as Biden, Inflation as one example. Trump would argue another tax cut for the Rich would be good, but would it pass a close Congress? Republicans up to defend their seats would be hesitant to do so. Especially with big deficits in the future. Or Trump could call for tax increases, which the Republicans would never pass, as a way to address the deficit.
And let’s talk about Foreign Policy. Trump would want to give what the Russians control to them in Ukraine. That would be unpopular.
More Americans now say the U.S. is not doing enough to assist Ukraine in its war with Russia, while a majority still favor helping Ukraine reclaim its territory.
news.gallup.com
Roughly speaking 55% of the people support Ukraine. So Trump can piss off his base by continuing to support Ukraine, or cut support and piss off the majority he needs to try and maintain control of Congress. Not exactly a good position to be in.
The same is true of Israel, and Taiwan. The isolationists who make up a goodly portion of Trump’s base will balk at further support, and the majority will object to cutting support.
So the Economy won’t help him, and the Border would be worse.
Drugs will continue to flow, and Trump has said he would be open to military action in Mexico. The first time that happened, the Government of Mexico has said they would pull back from the border and let the Migrants and Cartels have free access. Getting sucked into a quagmire in Mexico, would be idiotic.
I watched a video of this scenario, and the military minded fellow claimed we could wipe out the Cartels with ease. We would be getting shot at by every idiot with a gun from every window. Everything would be booby trapped. The locals may not like the Cartels, but they are not going to like a foreign military parading down the street either.
Trump would have a choice. He could do something militarily, or get blasted by his own side for not doing it. You guys won’t listen that it is a bad idea.
So what can Trump do? Deploy the National Guard in every time a protest gets fired up? Sure. And then he can try and look strong while public opinion turns against him.
Trump will need Congress, and with razor thin majorities he won’t get anything through that you guys want. So the question about Lake, and the Senate really matter. Got that yet?
