Report shows hiring at lowest since 2009 as economists turn to alternative data during shutdown blackout

[Zincwarrior]

Fed Hiring report came out since Gov shut down. Unemployment stable but new hiring is the lowest since 2009. Probably will provide impetus for another rate cut.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/02/report-shows-hiring-at-lowest-since-2009-as-economists-turn-to-alternative-data-during-shutdown-blackout.html

• Unemployment changed little in September, while layoff and hiring rates both slowed, according to separate labor market reports Thursday.
• The reports, from the Chicago Fed and Challenger, Gray & Christmas, substitute for data that normally comes from the government but won’t this week because of the shutdown.

Unemployment changed little in September, while layoff and hiring rates both slowed, according to separate labor market reports Thursday.

The jobless level barely moved at 4.34%, according to a relatively new set of data indicators compiled by the Chicago Federal Reserve. That represented little change from August, though was just 0.01 percentage point away from moving up to 4.4%, the highest level since October 2021.


In September, the central bank district announced it would be releasing its own dashboard of labor market indicators that also includes the layoff rate, which was little changed monthly at 2.1%, and the hiring rate, which moved lower to 45.2%, down 0.4 percentage point from August.

Elsewhere in the labor market, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that layoff announcements declined 37% in September and were down 26% from the same month a year ago.

However, the year-to-date level of planning furloughs is the highest since 2020, the year of the Covid pandemic. Challenger said announced cuts have totaled 946,426 through the first three quarters. The figure already is 24% higher than all of 2024.
At the same time, the firm said hiring plans have receded sharply.

New hirings totaled just 204,939 so far in 2025, off 58% from the same period a year ago and the lowest level since 2009, when the U.S. economy was still in the throes of the financial crisis.


“Previous periods with this many job cuts occurred either during recessions or, as was the case in 2005 and 2006, during the first wave of automations that cost jobs in manufacturing and technology,” said Andy Challenger, the firm’s senior vice president and labor expert.

 

[sealybobo]

Fed Hiring report came out since Gov shut down. Unemployment stable but new hiring is the lowest since 2009. Probably will provide impetus for another rate cut.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/02/report-shows-hiring-at-lowest-since-2009-as-economists-turn-to-alternative-data-during-shutdown-blackout.html

• Unemployment changed little in September, while layoff and hiring rates both slowed, according to separate labor market reports Thursday.
• The reports, from the Chicago Fed and Challenger, Gray & Christmas, substitute for data that normally comes from the government but won’t this week because of the shutdown.

Unemployment changed little in September, while layoff and hiring rates both slowed, according to separate labor market reports Thursday.

The jobless level barely moved at 4.34%, according to a relatively new set of data indicators compiled by the Chicago Federal Reserve. That represented little change from August, though was just 0.01 percentage point away from moving up to 4.4%, the highest level since October 2021.


In September, the central bank district announced it would be releasing its own dashboard of labor market indicators that also includes the layoff rate, which was little changed monthly at 2.1%, and the hiring rate, which moved lower to 45.2%, down 0.4 percentage point from August.

Elsewhere in the labor market, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that layoff announcements declined 37% in September and were down 26% from the same month a year ago.

However, the year-to-date level of planning furloughs is the highest since 2020, the year of the Covid pandemic. Challenger said announced cuts have totaled 946,426 through the first three quarters. The figure already is 24% higher than all of 2024.
At the same time, the firm said hiring plans have receded sharply.

New hirings totaled just 204,939 so far in 2025, off 58% from the same period a year ago and the lowest level since 2009, when the U.S. economy was still in the throes of the financial crisis.


“Previous periods with this many job cuts occurred either during recessions or, as was the case in 2005 and 2006, during the first wave of automations that cost jobs in manufacturing and technology,” said Andy Challenger, the firm’s senior vice president and labor expert.

Republicans swear the economy is good.

When the economy is good, people job hop. When things are bad like they are now, they hug.​

• Fewer Americans are quitting their jobs, and hiring has slowed, creating a frozen labor market with limited mobility.
• Economic uncertainty is causing workers to stay put despite growing dissatisfaction.
• “Job hugging” is masking widespread disengagement, costing employers billions and weakening productivity, innovation and future workforce development.
• The quits rate, once a key marker of worker confidence, has fallen to around 2%, a level not regularly seen since early 2016.
• “A few years ago, [during] the great resignation, people were quitting in large numbers for bigger pay bumps,” said Matt Bohn, a senior client partner at Korn Ferry. “I think wage growth has cooled, job-switching premiums have shrunk, and a lot of workers worry that their pay won’t keep up with rising costs. So I think they’re clinging to stability in a time of uncertainty.”

People complain about the Biden years but they were great. With all the people who retired early, anyone who went and looked for a better job could find one. A better paying job that more than made up for the inflation Covid caused.

 

[odanny]

By all accounts I'm reading employers have halted the hiring process. It was not that long ago that job hopping was commonplace, and anyone could get hired, yet forecasts must be troubling for employers to go on lockdown.

 

[1srelluc]

I bet all those pipeline workers are glad they did not "learn to code" as the vile dems suggested.

 

[initforme]

Job hoppers are what emoyers want nowadays. High turnover helps.

 

[sealybobo]

By all accounts I'm reading employers have halted the hiring process. It was not that long ago that job hopping was commonplace, and anyone could get hired, yet forecasts must be troubling for employers to go on lockdown.

But ask a Republican here they'll say unemployment is still low, inflation is under control, trump's tariffs haven't raised prices that much, YET. And we are still adding jobs. A recession is 2 consecutive quarters of bad. We aren't doing that bad yet.

But Republicans are flat out lying. Or cherry picking. They say food and gas prices are down. How is that when beef's at an all time high? And if gas is down, it ain't down by much.

All I know, is this is not a good economy. The last time this happened was the Bush years. They SWORE the fundamentals of the economy were strong all the way until the Great Recession. Then we all lost our jobs and homes and life savings. But weeks before that they were telling us to give Republicans another 4 years. This time instead of Bush, vote for McCain.

Even today Republicans admit that guy is a piece of shit. But back then, they loved him. Before him it was Mitt Romney. Another guy they threw under the bus when they found their new shiny toy or cult of personality.