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4/20: Campaign 2012: Obama’s Re-election Chances
April 20, 2011 by Marist Poll
Filed under Featured, National, National Poll Archive, Politics
President Barack Obama has officially announced that he will seek re-election next year, but he faces an electorate that still needs convincing. According to this McClatchy-Marist Poll, a plurality of registered voters nationwide — 44% — say they definitely plan to vote against Mr. Obama in 2012. 37% report they definitely plan to vote for him, and 18% are unsure.
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Despite the president’s transition into campaign mode, little has changed on this question since McClatchy-Marist last asked it in November. At that time, 48% of voters said they will not support the president in his re-election bid while 36% thought they would. 16%, at the time, were unsure.
“The president is hoping lightning strikes in the same place twice,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “If there is a silver lining for his re-election, it’s the lack of clarity in the GOP field.”
The president continues to struggle with those all-important independent voters. 47% of these voters say they don’t plan on casting their ballot for Obama while 32% do. 21% are unsure. In the fall, half — 50% — believed they would back another candidate while three in ten — 30% — reported they would support the incumbent president. 20% were unsure.
Table: Definitely Vote For or Against President Obama in 2012
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How do some of the most talked about potential GOP candidates fare against the president? When given the choice between former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and the president, voters divide. 46% of registered voters say they would back the president while 45% say they would cast their ballot for Romney. Nine percent are undecided.
When McClatchy-Marist last reported this question in January, Mr. Obama had a 13 percentage point lead over Romney. At that time, a slim majority — 51% — said they would vote for the president while 38% thought they would back Romney. 11% were undecided.
The president has lost ground among independent voters. Currently a plurality — 45% — back Romney while 42% support Obama. 13% are undecided. Previously, the president held a 10 percentage point lead over Romney.
When paired with former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, President Obama has a slight lead. 48% of voters say they would support the president in this hypothetical contest while 43% believe they would back Huckabee. Nine percent are undecided. However, Huckabee has narrowed the gap. In McClatchy-Marist’s previous survey, 12 percentage points separated the two. In January, half of voters — 50% — said Obama was their candidate while 38% said the same about Huckabee. 12% were undecided.