Political Expert Larry Sabato. The Dems will get Shellacked in 2014.

[WelfareQueen]

Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia, is one of the most renowned political experts in the Country...accurately predicting Obama would win in 2012, and accurately predicting every Presidential election over the last 30 years. His record regarding mid-term elections is among the best of anyone in the Nation. Here is what he says about the upcoming mid-term election in 2014.


"You look at the 17 days of the shutdown and compare that to how many days we’re gonna be watching these critical ObamCare rollout stories -- something tells me the critical stories about ObamaCare rollout are going to last a lot longer than 17 days," University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato said.

He said 2014 will be worse for Democrats and the administration. "That sixth-year election tends to unite the opposition because there are so many vulnerable spots for the incumbent president’s party, that's what brings them back together. There's nothing like the smell of victory in a lot of different places to pull a coalition together," Sabato said.


Larry also predicted Obama would win Virginia in 2012, which was one of the closest races in the Country. He is not an overt partisan. If I were a Dem, I would take what he says very seriously.

 

[Nyvin]

"pull a coalition together"

Hmm...I wouldn't be too sure of that, at this rate I doubt ANYTHING could pull the GOP together.

Plus a dumb broken website is not going to costs the democrats the election, that's just crazy.

 

[Katzndogz]

It isn't the website that is so bad even though the website is an in your face exhibit of government incompetence, it's what happens when people can finally get through and finds out that the only way they can pay their premiums is to not eat two weeks out of every month.

 

[Derideo_Te]

Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia, is one of the most renowned political experts in the Country...accurately predicting Obama would win in 2012, and accurately predicting every Presidential election over the last 30 years. His record regarding mid-term elections is among the best of anyone in the Nation. Here is what he says about the upcoming mid-term election in 2014.


"You look at the 17 days of the shutdown and compare that to how many days we’re gonna be watching these critical ObamCare rollout stories -- something tells me the critical stories about ObamaCare rollout are going to last a lot longer than 17 days," University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato said.

He said 2014 will be worse for Democrats and the administration. "That sixth-year election tends to unite the opposition because there are so many vulnerable spots for the incumbent president’s party, that's what brings them back together. There's nothing like the smell of victory in a lot of different places to pull a coalition together," Sabato said.


Larry also predicted Obama would win Virginia in 2012, which was one of the closest races in the Country. He is not an overt partisan. If I were a Dem, I would take what he says very seriously.

Basing this upon historical precedent is fine as long as he takes into account that things are not the same as they were previously. The gerrymandered districts don't have large winning margins and it is possible that corporate America would prefer to have a more stable group of Republicans in congress. If that occurs then it opens the door for both Dems and Independents. Secondly the democraphic shift is still happening and it doesn't rely upon the MSM as it's primary source of news. That means that there is a wild card factor at play. If Sabato has factored all of these variables in and he is still out of sync where most of the pundits are today I would seriously like to know his reasons for discounting them.

 

[JakeStarkey]

The underlying premises of Sabato are false or hopeful without reason.

 

[WelfareQueen]

The underlying premises of Sabato are false or hopeful without reason.

In your opinion...and it is strictly opinion. Larry is a registered Democrat, for the record, and worked on Democrats campaigns while in grad school. I don't think there is any wishful thinking on his part.

 

[Soggy in NOLA]

"pull a coalition together"

Hmm...I wouldn't be too sure of that, at this rate I doubt ANYTHING could pull the GOP together.

Plus a dumb broken website is not going to costs the democrats the election, that's just crazy.

Yeah? A fucked up $6,000,000,000 one that took three years to make and doesn't work, coupled with insurance rates skyrocketing and people not all getting in on this sure will though...

 

[WelfareQueen]

"pull a coalition together"

Hmm...I wouldn't be too sure of that, at this rate I doubt ANYTHING could pull the GOP together.

Plus a dumb broken website is not going to costs the democrats the election, that's just crazy.

You may be right. Of course, I thought Nate Silver was crazy the last election cycle, and I had to end up eating my words. Sabato is usually right on the money. I would not discount him out of hand.

 

[Pennywise]

The underlying premises of Sabato are false or hopeful without reason.

In your opinion...and it is strictly opinion. Larry is a registered Democrat, for the record, and worked on Democrats campaigns while in grad school. I don't think there is any wishful thinking on his part.

Sabato knows his business and he gets nowhere by hoodwinking the rubes like that fat fuck Rove does.

I knew when I went to the polls last November that Virginia was a toss up. The blacks were in packs.

 

[birddog]

The underlying premises of Sabato are false or hopeful without reason.

In your opinion...and it is strictly opinion. Larry is a registered Democrat, for the record, and worked on Democrats campaigns while in grad school. I don't think there is any wishful thinking on his part.

I agree. I have listened to him for years, and he is usually correct.

I still love your avatar by the way.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia, is one of the most renowned political experts in the Country...accurately predicting Obama would win in 2012, and accurately predicting every Presidential election over the last 30 years. His record regarding mid-term elections is among the best of anyone in the Nation. Here is what he says about the upcoming mid-term election in 2014.


"You look at the 17 days of the shutdown and compare that to how many days we’re gonna be watching these critical ObamCare rollout stories -- something tells me the critical stories about ObamaCare rollout are going to last a lot longer than 17 days," University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato said.

He said 2014 will be worse for Democrats and the administration. "That sixth-year election tends to unite the opposition because there are so many vulnerable spots for the incumbent president’s party, that's what brings them back together. There's nothing like the smell of victory in a lot of different places to pull a coalition together," Sabato said.


Larry also predicted Obama would win Virginia in 2012, which was one of the closest races in the Country. He is not an overt partisan. If I were a Dem, I would take what he says very seriously.

Gee, that's quite a post, since Sabato is listed as co-author of this article, dated YESTERDAY:

After the Shutdown, Republicans Sort Through the Wreckage

Democratic prospects improve in House and Senate

Excerpt:

If the numbers look similar close to Election Day next year, Democrats would be poised for significant gains in the House, and the generic ballot would also indirectly indicate a national sentiment for retained Democratic control of the Senate.

lolol

Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » AFTER THE SHUTDOWN, REPUBLICANS SORT THROUGH THE WRECKAGE

Someone doesn't know shellac from shinola.

 

[WelfareQueen]

The underlying premises of Sabato are false or hopeful without reason.

In your opinion...and it is strictly opinion. Larry is a registered Democrat, for the record, and worked on Democrats campaigns while in grad school. I don't think there is any wishful thinking on his part.

Sabato knows his business and he gets nowhere by hoodwinking the rubes like that fat fuck Rove does.

I knew when I went to the polls last November that Virginia was a toss up. The blacks were in packs.

I live in Virginia as well. Everyone in this State knows who Sabato is. I agree with your statement above...he knows his business and he does not play to either side of the political fence.

 

[WelfareQueen]

Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia, is one of the most renowned political experts in the Country...accurately predicting Obama would win in 2012, and accurately predicting every Presidential election over the last 30 years. His record regarding mid-term elections is among the best of anyone in the Nation. Here is what he says about the upcoming mid-term election in 2014.


"You look at the 17 days of the shutdown and compare that to how many days we’re gonna be watching these critical ObamCare rollout stories -- something tells me the critical stories about ObamaCare rollout are going to last a lot longer than 17 days," University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato said.

He said 2014 will be worse for Democrats and the administration. "That sixth-year election tends to unite the opposition because there are so many vulnerable spots for the incumbent president’s party, that's what brings them back together. There's nothing like the smell of victory in a lot of different places to pull a coalition together," Sabato said.


Larry also predicted Obama would win Virginia in 2012, which was one of the closest races in the Country. He is not an overt partisan. If I were a Dem, I would take what he says very seriously.

Gee, that's quite a post, since Sabato is listed as co-author of this article, dated YESTERDAY:

After the Shutdown, Republicans Sort Through the Wreckage

Democratic prospects improve in House and Senate

Excerpt:

If the numbers look similar close to Election Day next year, Democrats would be poised for significant gains in the House, and the generic ballot would also indirectly indicate a national sentiment for retained Democratic control of the Senate.

lolol

Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » AFTER THE SHUTDOWN, REPUBLICANS SORT THROUGH THE WRECKAGE

Someone doesn't know shellac from shinola.

Funny, you pull out one quote to support your argument, but fail to tell the real story. Kinda like what Obama always does. This is the key fact from the post you cite.

Per Mr. Sabato, The Republicans have 230 seats in the House that are Republican or lean Republican versus only 197 for Dems. Numbers don't lie, do they? I guess only if your Obama

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

The underlying premises of Sabato are false or hopeful without reason.

Cuz your record of predictions is so much better, Jake.

 

[rdean]

Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia, is one of the most renowned political experts in the Country...accurately predicting Obama would win in 2012, and accurately predicting every Presidential election over the last 30 years. His record regarding mid-term elections is among the best of anyone in the Nation. Here is what he says about the upcoming mid-term election in 2014.


"You look at the 17 days of the shutdown and compare that to how many days we’re gonna be watching these critical ObamCare rollout stories -- something tells me the critical stories about ObamaCare rollout are going to last a lot longer than 17 days," University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato said.

He said 2014 will be worse for Democrats and the administration. "That sixth-year election tends to unite the opposition because there are so many vulnerable spots for the incumbent president’s party, that's what brings them back together. There's nothing like the smell of victory in a lot of different places to pull a coalition together," Sabato said.


Larry also predicted Obama would win Virginia in 2012, which was one of the closest races in the Country. He is not an overt partisan. If I were a Dem, I would take what he says very seriously.

I'm curious. Republicans are 90% white. Where is the "coalition"?

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

"You look at the 17 days of the shutdown and compare that to how many days we’re gonna be watching these critical ObamCare rollout stories -- something tells me the critical stories about ObamaCare rollout are going to last a lot longer than 17 days," University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato said.

This is exactly what I've been saying for the past month. Nobody is going to give a shit about the shutdown this time next year when they've got ObamaCare destroying their lives. Why else do you think six red state / swing state Democrat Senators up for reelection next year are now in agreement for delaying the mandate? They aren't stupid.

 

[rdean]

"You look at the 17 days of the shutdown and compare that to how many days we’re gonna be watching these critical ObamCare rollout stories -- something tells me the critical stories about ObamaCare rollout are going to last a lot longer than 17 days," University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato said.

This is exactly what I've been saying for the past month. Nobody is going to give a shit about the shutdown this time next year when they've got ObamaCare destroying their lives. Why else do you think six red state / swing state Democrat Senators up for reelection next year are now in agreement for delaying the mandate? They aren't stupid.

Guv's former spokeswoman censures Utah's Mike Lee over Obamacare | The Salt Lake Tribune

A cancer survivor and long-time member of the working class, Welling’s mom, Beckie Clarkson, has been uninsured off and on over the past 16 years, because her cancer, or pre-existing condition, has prevented her from obtaining comprehensive coverage.

"About once a week, Mom wakes up in the middle of the night, choking and gagging. She usually spends the rest of the night vomiting, and the entire next day recuperating. She thinks she has something called a hiatal hernia, but isn’t sure because the diagnostic tests are too expensive," wrote Welling, previously a reporter for the LDS-Church-owned Deseret News and a registered Republican.

"Today, God willing, Mom will sign up for health insurance on the federal health exchange. She will finally have coverage.

---------------------------------------------

Perhaps you could write to this woman and tell her you hope her mother dies. Perhaps even add in a "bitch"? As in "Die bitch". I suspect it would make you feel awfully "good".

 

[Zander]

With all due respect to Mr Sabato- it is WAY too early to predict an outcome. We don't even have the individual candidates names yet!

I do believe that there is an underlying discontent in the country- historically that does favor the minority party. But that doesn't mean squat at this juncture. Plus, the GOP has an uncanny ability to shoot itself in the foot.....legitimate rape anyone?

 

[WelfareQueen]

Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia, is one of the most renowned political experts in the Country...accurately predicting Obama would win in 2012, and accurately predicting every Presidential election over the last 30 years. His record regarding mid-term elections is among the best of anyone in the Nation. Here is what he says about the upcoming mid-term election in 2014.


"You look at the 17 days of the shutdown and compare that to how many days we’re gonna be watching these critical ObamCare rollout stories -- something tells me the critical stories about ObamaCare rollout are going to last a lot longer than 17 days," University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato said.

He said 2014 will be worse for Democrats and the administration. "That sixth-year election tends to unite the opposition because there are so many vulnerable spots for the incumbent president’s party, that's what brings them back together. There's nothing like the smell of victory in a lot of different places to pull a coalition together," Sabato said.


Larry also predicted Obama would win Virginia in 2012, which was one of the closest races in the Country. He is not an overt partisan. If I were a Dem, I would take what he says very seriously.

I'm curious. Republicans are 90% white. Where is the "coalition"?

Why are you so racist? Does it trouble you that 95% of black voters vote Democrat?

 

[WelfareQueen]

"You look at the 17 days of the shutdown and compare that to how many days we’re gonna be watching these critical ObamCare rollout stories -- something tells me the critical stories about ObamaCare rollout are going to last a lot longer than 17 days," University of Virginia Professor Larry Sabato said.

This is exactly what I've been saying for the past month. Nobody is going to give a shit about the shutdown this time next year when they've got ObamaCare destroying their lives. Why else do you think six red state / swing state Democrat Senators up for reelection next year are now in agreement for delaying the mandate? They aren't stupid.

Guv's former spokeswoman censures Utah's Mike Lee over Obamacare | The Salt Lake Tribune


A cancer survivor and long-time member of the working class, Welling’s mom, Beckie Clarkson, has been uninsured off and on over the past 16 years, because her cancer, or pre-existing condition, has prevented her from obtaining comprehensive coverage.

"About once a week, Mom wakes up in the middle of the night, choking and gagging. She usually spends the rest of the night vomiting, and the entire next day recuperating. She thinks she has something called a hiatal hernia, but isn’t sure because the diagnostic tests are too expensive," wrote Welling, previously a reporter for the LDS-Church-owned Deseret News and a registered Republican.

"Today, God willing, Mom will sign up for health insurance on the federal health exchange. She will finally have coverage.

---------------------------------------------

Perhaps you could write to this woman and tell her you hope her mother dies. Perhaps even add in a "bitch"? As in "Die bitch". I suspect it would make you feel awfully "good".

That's a nice story. Who will pay for her coverage...you? These are the only people signing up for Obamacare, the incredibly old and sick, which means it will not be financially viable and will fail. Health insurance is not a Constitutional Right, and Obamacare is not a viable solution. Next.