Advantage Bush
New ABC Poll Shows Bush in Lead
Analysis by Gary Langer
Sept. 9, 2004— The 2004 campaign enters its decisive phase with the advantage to President Bush, who has reasserted his personal and professional credentials, effectively driven up John Kerry's negatives and broken through to a lead in likely voters' preferences.
According to a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, registered voters by a 27-point margin now say Bush has taken a clearer stand than Kerry on the issues, by 27 points call Bush the stronger leader and by 19 points say he would make the country safer. Bush also has a 22-point advantage in trust to handle terrorism, a 16-point lead on Iraq and perhaps a slight edge even on the lukewarm economy.
Sampling, data collection and tabulation for this poll were done by TNS.
These and other ratings have either reversed or eroded Kerry's position. After the Democratic convention Kerry had a six-point lead as more honest; now it's Bush +13. Kerry had a 13-point lead on a "vision for the future"; now it's Bush +9. Kerry had a 14-point lead on understanding people's problems; now they're essentially even (Bush +1).
Moving these underlying views has enabled Bush to break out of the virtual dead heat that's defined the contest: Among likely voters in this ABC News/Washington Post survey, Bush has 52 percent support, Kerry 43 percent, Ralph Nader 2 percent. It's Bush's first lead beyond the margin of sampling error in any ABC/Post poll since Kerry seized his party's nomination in March. The race is 50-44-2 percent among all registered voters.
The contest is far from over: This poll follows Bush's convention, a week in which he held center stage in public attention, and his convention "bounce" — an insignificant +5 points among registered voters — is an anemic one, on par with Kerry's +8 and below the average, +14, in polls since 1968. One difference is that Kerry left his convention in a dead heat among likely voters, while Bush leaves his with a lead.