skews13
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- Mar 18, 2017
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To listen to market observers, the Federal Reserve is sleeping as the house burns down. After the week began with sharp falls in Asian stock markets, American analysts began calling for emergency interest rate cuts from the Fed. Otherwise, they say, falling stock prices risked turning into an outright crash.
Arguably, investors are mapping their own pain onto the economy as a whole. Despite Monday’s sell-off, the macro-data from the broader economy doesn’t quite paint the picture of collapse that they’re drawing, at least not yet.
High-frequency data, like air travel and flight bookings, still indicate a US economy which remains in pretty good shape. Although there’s little question the economy has cooled down, it bears repeating that it’s coming off a period of very hot growth. Overall, the picture is of a gradual softening, not an imminent collapse. Consumer spending is still up. The U.S., in short, is not Canada.
Ironically, therefore, the widespread expectation that interest rates will be cut sharply is a self-defeating sentiment. It has driven bond yields down a lot, lowering borrowing costs – the expectation of cuts may actually take the pressure off central banks to get more aggressive with cuts. That is a good thing.
But the markets are not the economy, and investors’ pain is only their own. With the markets running less hot, the economy will benefit since capital, including houses, will become more affordable.
apple.news
Arguably, investors are mapping their own pain onto the economy as a whole. Despite Monday’s sell-off, the macro-data from the broader economy doesn’t quite paint the picture of collapse that they’re drawing, at least not yet.
High-frequency data, like air travel and flight bookings, still indicate a US economy which remains in pretty good shape. Although there’s little question the economy has cooled down, it bears repeating that it’s coming off a period of very hot growth. Overall, the picture is of a gradual softening, not an imminent collapse. Consumer spending is still up. The U.S., in short, is not Canada.
Ironically, therefore, the widespread expectation that interest rates will be cut sharply is a self-defeating sentiment. It has driven bond yields down a lot, lowering borrowing costs – the expectation of cuts may actually take the pressure off central banks to get more aggressive with cuts. That is a good thing.
But the markets are not the economy, and investors’ pain is only their own. With the markets running less hot, the economy will benefit since capital, including houses, will become more affordable.
Opinion: Markets are down, but that doesn’t mean the economy is — The Globe and Mail
American markets opened on Monday deep in the red. But the truth is that share prices, while down a lot, didn’t quite collapse