Kansas Independent Senate Candidate Polling at 20%

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

This is somewhat encouraging to see that amount of people pull themselves out of the herd, but what will it translate to on Election Day?

RealClearPolitics - Election 2014 - Kansas Senate - Roberts vs. Taylor vs. Orman

 

[Statistikhengst]

I have been watching the stats on Kansas, which are fascinating. And once again, we see proof that all politics is truly local.

In a year where many think, or at least hope, that a GOP wave will appear in the mid-terms, in the gubernatorial, Brownback (R) is losing. And in the senatorial, it's a single-point spread still favoring Roberts (R), but in a state that is normally a +20 or more state for the GOP.

And in polling looking toward 2016, there have already been three polls of Kansas, Hillary vs. assorted GOP contenders, making for 11 matchups. The GOP contenders have won all of the matchups, but by middle single digits, mostly between +4 and +7, again, in a state that is usually +20 for the GOP nationally and statewide.

Now, as to Orman, he is co-founder of the "Common Sense Coalition":

Greg Orman - The Centrist Project


And that fits in nicely to this thread I put out just today:

Were a Centrist 3rd party to form would you support it US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

 

[LiberalMedia]

By all indications in your source, the Wrongpublican will win.

Strangely, I noticed that the Democratic candidate's support doesn't vary much from poll to poll, but the numbers for Roberts and Orman do. It seems that even among voters, there is a sense of unshakeable unity among Democrats, whereas Wrongpublicans are more likely to rebel against what they view as "the establishment" and split the party.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Most Independent candidates tend to lose on support before election day.

See: Virginia Gubernatorial, November 2013.

Independent Robert Sarvis (a software developer) was getting between 9-12% in polling. On election night, he came in at 6.5 points, a little less than two thirds of his aggregate average.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Yeah, I think Roberts will ultimately win, but it sure would be nice to see Orman pull off an upset and send another independent to the Senate.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Yeah, I think Roberts will ultimately win, but it sure would be nice to see Orman pull off an upset and send another independent to the Senate.

That could be quite interesting.

 

[Shanty]

Yeah, I think Roberts will ultimately win, but it sure would be nice to see Orman pull off an upset and send another independent to the Senate.

If Orman wins, and caucuses with the GOP, he is a Republican. Nothing changes.

Third parties and dependents like Orman don't count on their own. They have no base of support for longevity. And they still have to vote for the leader of one of the two parties in the Senate, or House Speaker.