Justified confidence without absolute certainty

[GuyOnInternet]

We are willing to fly on airplanes even though we do not have absolute certainty that the flight will not crash. We have justified confidence in the fact that in the last couple years, only 1 in 16.7 million flights crashed. The odds are even less for domestic flights that do not travel as far or across the ocean. Is it rational to believe that it is highly unlikely that an individual flight will crash? Is my prediction that the flight will land safely a random guess or an informed decision based on a statistical analysis of past results?

We are willing to trust science when we fly on planes, drive in cars, and go to the doctor. Again, we do this even though we do not have absolute certainty that it will turn out well. We have justified confidence in many of the results of scientific progress. What we really trust is applied science in the form of technology. This would not be the case if the theories and facts it is based on were not extrememly likely to be at least approximately true.

I believe we should hold attempts at social engineering based on social science to the same level of empirical testing, precision, lack of ambiguity and confidence levels as the most well established mechanical engineering before we trust them to be implemented.

 

[1srelluc]

LOL.....Like what passes for "science" from the climate change weenies.

Just look at their main spokesman.

 

[Hellokitty]

I believe we should hold attempts at social engineering based on social science to the same level of empirical testing, precision, lack of ambiguity and confidence levels as the most well established mechanical engineering before we trust them to be implemented.

Right now social engineering is being used to redefine applied science.

 

[Libby von H]

We are willing to fly on airplanes even though we do not have absolute certainty that the flight will not crash. We have justified confidence in the fact that in the last couple years, only 1 in 16.7 million flights crashed. The odds are even less for domestic flights that do not travel as far or across the ocean. Is it rational to believe that it is highly unlikely that an individual flight will crash? Is my prediction that the flight will land safely a random guess or an informed decision based on a statistical analysis of past results?

We are willing to trust science when we fly on planes, drive in cars, and go to the doctor. Again, we do this even though we do not have absolute certainty that it will turn out well. We have justified confidence in many of the results of scientific progress. What we really trust is applied science in the form of technology. This would not be the case if the theories and facts it is based on were not extrememly likely to be at least approximately true.

I believe we should hold attempts at social engineering based on social science to the same level of empirical testing, precision, lack of ambiguity and confidence levels as the most well established mechanical engineering before we trust them to be implemented.

I have to go after your lack of logic. You have no certainty about what won't happen if you DON'T take the flight. And even your add-on thoughts are off. Maybe you will die in a crash but the alternative was you didn't yet lived 30 more years in a paralyzed state somewhere in general bad health --- and that is doing better ??????

Maybe the safe and quick ariline got you to where you are going just in time to die in a car crash or be shot by a robber.
We should have NO trust in any social project until the morality and constitutionality passes. Your view enabled the EXPERTOCRACY of that mindless intransigent Woodrow Wilson.

There are social projects that would pass all your 'tests' that I still would not want. Passing doesn't bypass the electorate or our Founding values. Biden has used your reasoning for the stupidest most wasteful godawful exceses ever. EVs Wind farms in the ocean. hydrogen hubs, his disastrous billions for road infrastructure. The student loan debacle that punished those who saved and paid and followed the rules.

Absouter certainty about a plane tells you ZERO about whether your taking that plane is a good or bad thing.