Though a UN ceasefire agreement was made, Israeli troops don't plan to leave the area they have occuppied in Lebanon until Monday (if I heard correclty). Nasrallah mentioned that as long as Israel stays in Lebanon, Hezbollah will continue attacking the Israeli troops (though they wont be advancing). The second this happens, the ceasefire "agreement" will be flushed down the toilet.
While the Israeli military is much superior in tactics and weapons to the Hezbollah guerilla fighters, in hand-to-hand face-to-face firefights in urban areas, Hezbollah is gaining the upper hand on Israel. There are constantly stalemates that last for days, and i believe yesterday, 19 Israeli soldiers were killed (the most in one day, during this war). Recently, hundreds of helicopters deployed thousands of more troops in the area. The problem that Israel faces is: 1. does it carpet bomb all of Lebanon and level it to the ground, risking minimal troop deaths, or 2. does it send in ground forces to take out hezbollah soldeirs who are hiding behind civilians, and risk many troop deaths.
If Israel acts in accordance with number 1, then it is likely that Iran, Syria, Jordan, and multitudes of other arabic nations (which are on the fence about joining in on this war against Israel already) will attack Israel- and they'll have a bigger problem.
If Israel does number 2, then they will drag this war on for years, losing many people, Hezbollah rockets will continue to attack Israeli cities (they are now hitting Haifa- a range that no one thought they could reach 2 weeks ago). The UN will continue to condemn Israel, and the US will have to help out Israel- thus exasuting more of our troops and extending our war on terror.
Koffi 'the scourge of the UN' Annan want to have a ceasefire, but as I always say: "There is no avoiding war, only putting it off to the advantage of others" (i believe it was originally Napolean's). Just as Hezbollah spent 7 years to build up the area just to the North of Israel in preparation for a war, if the ceasefire is legitimate and no one keeps a keen eye on Lebanon, they will build up again, and they, like a virus, will be more difficult to defeat the second time.
I think Europe and the UN need to realize that negotiations are not possible in the middle east area. This is because the arabs in the area want nothing short of Israel disappearing- this is not compromisable. Though arabic governments may say "we condemn the acts of terrorists, in our countries, towards israel" they still do nothing to prevent these attacks- and thus are just as guilty. Israel needs to finish the middle east war as soon as possible before the nuclear capabilities of Iran will prevent it from protecting itself from militant islam in neighboring countries.
