IF Computers/AI are so smart, why are weather predictions not getting more accurate?

[1srelluc]

Some of the most difficult non-linear chaotic systems observable are your local weather.

Predicting the WEATHER has historically been a 50% proposition, and by my observations, the weather-guessers get it right about half the time.

With the advent of Super-Computers working over climate data back in the late 1980s it was still 50% guesswork going by the results.

Now we have all this AI and the weather prediction still seems like a 50/50 proposition.

Either the computers aren't any smarter, or we are feeding them faulty "climate change" data.

Back in the early 80s Willard Scott (a weather presenter) told me that any weather prediction past 36 hours out is pure guess work and only for TV ratings. He could do just as well reading off the Farmer's Almanac.

Was he right?

 

[ozro]

There would be a big improvement in weather forecast if they would just install windows in the studios that weathermen broadcast from.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Some of the most difficult non-linear chaotic systems observable are your local weather.

Predicting the WEATHER has historically been a 50% proposition, and by my observations, the weather-guessers get it right about half the time.

With the advent of Super-Computers working over climate data back in the late 1980s it was still 50% guesswork going by the results.

Now we have all this AI and the weather prediction still seems like a 50/50 proposition.

Either the computers aren't any smarter, or we are feeding them faulty "climate change" data.

Back in the early 80s Willard Scott (a weather presenter) told me that any weather prediction past 36 hours out is pure guess work and only for TV ratings. He could do just as well reading off the Farmer's Almanac.

Was he right?

Yes

 

[rightwinger]

I find them very accurate

When it says it will rain in 45 minutes, it usually does
They are very accurate on what the temperature will be tomorrow

 

[Winston]

There would be a big improvement in weather forecast if they would just install windows in the studios that weathermen broadcast from.

LOL. Years ago the late night weatherman, at eleven, would broadcast from outside, a patio or something. One night several high school kids snuck in, hid in the bushes, and then, when the weatherman was on camera and live, they drenched him with water guns. It was hilarious, but the damn station wanted to make a big deal out of it. And of course, no more outside broadcasts.

 

[Meister]

I find them very accurate

When it says it will rain in 45 minutes, it usually does
They are very accurate on what the temperature will be tomorrow

Thank you Einstein, 45 mins. out is a win for you? How about a week out,
or even 72 hours out?

 

[Winston]

Thank you Einstein, 45 mins. out is a win for you? How about a week out,
or even 72 hours out?

What kind of notice do you need? As I always say, want to know the weather, open the damn back door. Step out on the porch. There, weather. And no, you can feel it, you can smell it. When it comes to snow, you can hear it. Damn, the cows know. If they are on the ground, rain is coming, and the fish ain't biting.

 

[Meister]

What kind of notice do you need? As I always say, want to know the weather, open the damn back door. Step out on the porch. There, weather. And no, you can feel it, you can smell it. When it comes to snow, you can hear it. Damn, the cows know. If they are on the ground, rain is coming, and the fish ain't biting.

Not all plans are made at the moment. Some have to be planned.

 

[1srelluc]

I find them very accurate

When it says it will rain in 45 minutes, it usually does
They are very accurate on what the temperature will be tomorrow

Sorta proves Willard's point.

Ever notice that weather forecasts usually stopped at 36 hours out, then when TV started doing it for ratings it went to 4-day, then 5-day....Then they totally jumped the shark to 10-day?

Now all the rage seems to be made-up wither storm names and the various "models", plus the "hair on fire" BS for the MSM.

Take today for example....Both taken from a MSN feed:

Meteorologist says 'a train of winter storms is set to dump snow across much of the US over the next seven days' as this winter takes a strange turn​

Rare severe thunderstorm warning issued for California amid tornado threat​

 

[Darkwind]

I find them very accurate

When it says it will rain in 45 minutes, it usually does
They are very accurate on what the temperature will be tomorrow

Stop that!

I agree.

 

[JGalt]

Some of the most difficult non-linear chaotic systems observable are your local weather.

Predicting the WEATHER has historically been a 50% proposition, and by my observations, the weather-guessers get it right about half the time.

With the advent of Super-Computers working over climate data back in the late 1980s it was still 50% guesswork going by the results.

Now we have all this AI and the weather prediction still seems like a 50/50 proposition.

Either the computers aren't any smarter, or we are feeding them faulty "climate change" data.

Back in the early 80s Willard Scott (a weather presenter) told me that any weather prediction past 36 hours out is pure guess work and only for TV ratings. He could do just as well reading off the Farmer's Almanac.

Was he right?

Because the weather has no logic or reason. It just says "screw you" and does what it damned well pleases.

 

[1srelluc]

Because the weather has no logic or reason. It just says "screw you" and does what it damned well pleases.

Pretty much.....Mother Nature is a harsh mistress.

 

[MarathonMike]

I find them very accurate

When it says it will rain in 45 minutes, it usually does
They are very accurate on what the temperature will be tomorrow

I can predict rain within 45 minutes by watching clouds.

 

[Admiral Rockwell Tory]

I find them very accurate

When it says it will rain in 45 minutes, it usually does
They are very accurate on what the temperature will be tomorrow

I recall a day earlier this week where the predicted high was near 60. It barely made it out of the 40s. Why? The forecast did not account for ice and snow already on the ground colling everything off as it melted. Another day last week, the high was forecast in the low 50s and the high was actually 70 degrees and broke the record. The reason? The clouds dissipated far more than was forecast.

Rain is a function of radar. My local radar is physically off by about 10 miles. The radar will show it clear as a bell and it's raining cats and dogs!

 

[braalian]

I know that in my neck of the woods, lake effect snow can bury one side of town while leaving the other side of town relatively untouched.

Seems it'd be impossible to pinpoint the forecast to that degree