GOVERNMENT IMAGINARY NUMBERS vs REALITY.

[Neubarth]

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending Dec. 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 452,000, a decrease of 28,000 from the previous week's unrevised figure of 480,000.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 561,902 in the week ending Dec. 19, an increase of 6,492 from the previous week.

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And the lies from the horribly corrupt Obama Administration continue without end. Lie after lie after lie after lie after lie after lie. When will we impeach this CLOWN???? Obama is in bed with the Big Bankers who want to fleece the investing public with all of this talk of RECOVERY, RECOVERY, RECOVERY.

THERE IS NO RECOVERY. The reality is that more and more people will be suckered into the stock market and then the Big Banks will take short positions on the stock market and bring it down again. The investors lose and the Big Bankers win. That is the new reality in the economic world.

 

[Neubarth]

Think of it as a new tax on those who can afford to lose their savings to the Big Banks who in turn reward the political party that allowed them to steal all of that money from the investing public. It is all about getting rich, and the Big Banks know how to make the most money off of the fools.

Consider, Ford has 3.34 Billion stock shares out. The company is technically bankrupt. They owe more money than they can pay out, but keep on selling shares in Ford to finance their corruption until somebody pulls the carpet out from under them. The only way they can avoid bankruptcy is to sell more stock shares so they can buy the bondholders out and remove all Bond debt. If they did so, and then declared BK, nobody would get a penny, but the Banks, hedge funds and few astute individuals who shorted the 3.34 billion or more shares.

FORD HAS BECOME A BIGGER PONZI SCHEME THAN MADOFF! OBAMA IS SUPPORTIVE OF THIS MASSIVE DECEPTION. If he were opposed to it, he would have stopped it a long time ago. The Big Bankers are foisting this kind of massive corruption on the nation, and Obama is fine with that.

 

[Neubarth]

DURABLE ORDERS are still in shitsville.
NOV 2009 +0.2%
OCT 2009 – 0.6%
SEP 2009 +1.0%
AUG 2009 -2.4%
JUL 2009 +4.8%
JUN 2009 -- 1.3%
MAY 2009 +1.3%
APR 2009 +1.9%
MAR 2009 -- 2.1%
FEB 2009 +3.4%
JAN 2009 – 5.2%
DEC2008 – 2.6%
NOV 2008 – 1.0 %
OCT 2008 – 8.4%
SEP 2008 –1.0%
AUG 2008 – 4.5%

JUN 2007 +1.4%
MAY 2007 – 2.8%
APR 2007 +0.6%
MAR 2007 +5.0%
FEB 2007 + 2.5
JAN 2007 - 9.3

DURABLE ORDERS ex Transport
NOV 2009 +2.0%
OCT 2009 – 1.3%
SEP 2009 +0.9%
AUG 2009 -0.0%
JUL 2009 +0.8%
JUN 2009 +2.5%
MAY 2009 +0.8%
APR 2009 +0.8
MAR 2009 - 2.7
FEB 2009 +3.4
JAN 2009 – 5.2%

 

[andy753]

Nuebarth, I'm not trying to stir the pot with you, but a lot of your posts seem to always say "people are reading false info", or something to that effect. Where do you get your info (links please), and how do you know it's the truth? How do you know your not reading the false info and disregarding the truth? I've done reports and made charts that look EXACTLY like the ones you read. I could change the numbers, post it to the web, and sure enough, some fool would read it and preach it to everyone. Again, not trying to start crap with you, but anytime we read charts, facts, and reports, they could be fake. ALL OF THEM.

 

[Toronado3800]

So in september the adjusted unemployment was higher but in december its lower than reality?

 

[RetiredGySgt]

When posting data one is required to post either a link or a citation for the source of that data. So where is the source?

 

[Neubarth]

When posting data one is required to post either a link or a citation for the source of that data. So where is the source?

Gunny, I have posted it hundreds of times. It is the Department of Labor. The DOL puts the actual data up at their site but releases totally false and horribly corrupt "Adjusted Numbers" to support the Obama administration's lies about the economy.

Here once again is a link:

ETA Press Release: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

Look at all of the weekly numbers and you will see the degree of massive deception that we have experienced in the News Releases for the past four months as Obama has been saying that we are experiencing a rebound in the economy. IT IS ALL LIES! HE NEEDS TO BE REMOVED FROM OFFICE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE, AND WE NEED TO PUT IN A LEADER WHO CREATES JOBS, NOT LIES.

 

[mudwhistle]

Yes....lies.

Some will tell you necessary lies.

 

[code1211]

When posting data one is required to post either a link or a citation for the source of that data. So where is the source?

Gunny, I have posted it hundreds of times. It is the Department of Labor. The DOL puts the actual data up at their site but releases totally false and horribly corrupt "Adjusted Numbers" to support the Obama administration's lies about the economy.

Here once again is a link:

ETA Press Release: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

Look at all of the weekly numbers and you will see the degree of massive deception that we have experienced in the News Releases for the past four months as Obama has been saying that we are experiencing a rebound in the economy. IT IS ALL LIES! HE NEEDS TO BE REMOVED FROM OFFICE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE, AND WE NEED TO PUT IN A LEADER WHO CREATES JOBS, NOT LIES.

Regardless of anything else, either number is horrible. If they started with the seasonally adjusted number and are sticking with it, then it is what it is.

I don't know how they adjust it, but retail workers unemployed in July vs. the same group in December would sem to have different numbers. Same with construction workers in the North in the two months showing.

It seems like seasonally adjusted numbers would be more meaningful if the adjustments are logical.

 

[Neubarth]

When posting data one is required to post either a link or a citation for the source of that data. So where is the source?

Gunny, I have posted it hundreds of times. It is the Department of Labor. The DOL puts the actual data up at their site but releases totally false and horribly corrupt "Adjusted Numbers" to support the Obama administration's lies about the economy.

Here once again is a link:

ETA Press Release: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

Look at all of the weekly numbers and you will see the degree of massive deception that we have experienced in the News Releases for the past four months as Obama has been saying that we are experiencing a rebound in the economy. IT IS ALL LIES! HE NEEDS TO BE REMOVED FROM OFFICE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE, AND WE NEED TO PUT IN A LEADER WHO CREATES JOBS, NOT LIES.

Regardless of anything else, either number is horrible. If they started with the seasonally adjusted number and are sticking with it, then it is what it is.

I don't know how they adjust it, but retail workers unemployed in July vs. the same group in December would sem to have different numbers. Same with construction workers in the North in the two months showing.

It seems like seasonally adjusted numbers would be more meaningful if the adjustments are logical.

The problem is that there is no logic to the adjustments. Some weeks they round up and the next wees they round down and then back up again and then down again and then up again and then down again. It is all corrupt as hell. The fact remains that there is no logical reason to adjust the numbers. All they need to do is report them as is.

We do not adjust the number of people killed in drunken traffic accidents. Could you imagine the Obama administration saying that too many drunks were killed in Accidents in December so we will report them as dead in February to even things out over time. Totally ludicrous like the Obama numbers that we see every week.

All we need is the raw data. If half a million people filed unemployment insurance claims last week, report that as is and don't fuck with it. It is a hard number of actual people who filed those claims. They are out of work after having worked a job for six or twelve months, depending upon the state laws in place and believe they are eligible for UI. Experience has shown that 98 percent of the claims are totally valid. About two percent or less are in error because people miscalculated how long they were working before being laid off. That is not a great degree of error and has been fairly consistent over the years.

 

[pinqy]

The problem is that there is no logic to the adjustments. Some weeks they round up and the next wees they round down and then back up again and then down again and then up again and then down again. It is all corrupt as hell. The fact remains that there is no logical reason to adjust the numbers. All they need to do is report them as is.

You've never taken a statistics class, have you? There is a lot of noise involved in looking at time series data and in order to look at the actual trend, you need to eliminate as much noise as possible. The labor market has predictable variations and noise depending on the time of year; yes, down to the very week for UI claims.

[qutoe]We do not adjust the number of people killed in drunken traffic accidents. [/quote]Because it's not generally reported as weekly or monthly data. Most health and accident data is reported yearly, so there's no need to seasonally adjust.

All we need is the raw data.

You are not an economist or a statistician. Please don't presume what they need. The raw data has too much noisy for proper time series analysis...when UI claims go up in January, how much of that is due to a general trend in the economy and how much is due to the fact that many business lay off a lot of people in January anyway? How on earth could you figure out the difference without seasonal adjustment.


Ok, finally realized I had a program I needed to add my own chart, based on UI initial claims (Neubarth already posted the DOL link). Choosing only a few months makes the changes look radical, but take a look at the trend from Jan 2008 to Dec 2009. Does it look like random illogical changes, or does it look like smoothing out of more radical changes?

 

[Toro]

We need data to be seasonally adjusted. Here is another example of the unemployment rate not seasonally adjusted.

Clearly, there is a lot of noise in the data. The rate bouncing up and down to the dynamics of the seasons doesn't tell us anything so we have to smooth out the data to understand the underlying dynamics of the economy.

But as you can see, if one wants to make the case that there is a lot of unemployment, the non-seasonally adjusted number does not hide that.

 

[Neubarth]

We need data to be seasonally adjusted. Here is another example of the unemployment rate not seasonally adjusted.

Clearly, there is a lot of noise in the data. The rate bouncing up and down to the dynamics of the seasons doesn't tell us anything so we have to smooth out the data to understand the underlying dynamics of the economy.

But as you can see, if one wants to make the case that there is a lot of unemployment, the non-seasonally adjusted number does not hide that.

Toro, This is all propaganda shit from the Obama administration.

We do not need the manipulation of the numbers. The criminally corrupt and totally insane Obama administration has started grossly manipulating the numbers to trick investors into putting their money into the stock market. All of the Thousands of lies that Obama and his minions hava made up are fully intended to deceive the middle class into losing their life savings so the Democratic Party can benefit from the generosity of the Big Banks in the coming elections

There is no formula for the weekly Unemployment insurance claims to be gerrymandered around by two hundred thousand people, up one week and down the next like a pogo stick, when the actual numbers show a fairly consistent increase in UI claims.

The manipulation is so very obvious if you put it on a chart and look at it. Obama needs to be removed from office. Never have we had this corrupt of a politician so openly flaunting his corruption and criminal behavior in full view of the public.