There is where you are making the mistake.
People who play football and do not wear helmets are more likely to be injured than those who do not. If you watched the video you should have heard him say that the incidence of injuries went up when helmet use increased, even though the number of bike riders remained the same.
That is enough statistical evidence alone to challenge any logic or common sense that argues that wearing a helmet decreases brain injuries. If brain injuries wen up when helmet use and bicycle riding went up it might need more analysis, but that is not what happened.
All things being equal, wearing a helmet is not statistically likely to prevent brain injuries. If you are worried about getting some scrapes on your head, wear one. If you are worried about serious injury and seriously want to protect yourself, get something else. I would suggest a BMX style helmet since those are actually designed to take impacts from multiple directions at real speeds.
I'm not sure what other way I can come at this. Simply put, correlation does not equal causation - and despite your denial, the argument rests entirely on a correlation. I wouldn't keep bringing it up, but it's bad science to draw conclusions about specific factors from statistical correlations. The text books are full of such fallacies. Did you know that there is rock-solid statistical evidence showing a correlation between crime and ice-cream consumption? It's true. Decades of statistics support it. When ice-cream consumption peaks, so do crime rates.
The reason this particular fallacy annoys me so much is, as I mentioned, it's usually used by the other 'side' in these public safety debates. And it's bullshit then too. (eg. if the statistics indicated the opposite, that injuries went down as helmet usage went up, it still wouldn't prove anything about the effectiveness of a helmet in a given accident).
The point I'd like to make here (again) is that we're dealing with two distinct questions: whether a blanket policy of encouraging helmet use is a good idea, and whether helmets are effective at preventing injury. They're both important questions, but the evidence supporting one doesnt' necessarily apply to the other. It's important to distinguish the two because the goals are different. The point of encouraging helmet use, I assume, is to reduce overall injury statistics. Such a campaign may, or may not, produce those results. But that gives no direct evidence on the effectiveness of wearing a helmet for a person in an accident.
Abuse of statistical arguments like this are widespread and we need to start recognizing them for what they are. All too often we accept them at face value when they don't prove anything useful.
I am not making a statistical correlation. I pointed out that brain injuries increased when helmet use went up, and I commented that this might be because people took more risks. It certainly was not because more people were riding bikes. That was simply a guess.
I then argued, separately, that, if helmets are effective at preventing up to 85% of brain injuries, as one study claimed, helmet use should cause brain injuries to go down. For some reason you want to combine the two different statements into one.
I am not arguing that helmets are unsafe, I am arguing that they are ineffective. I then point to statistical evidence that supports that argument.
You seem to be focused on me using the statistics to prove that helmets are bad policy. I am not, I am pointing to statistics to show that helmets are useless.
Is there a chance that wearing a helmet will prevent some brain injuries? Of course there is. Longer hair prevents some brain injuries. Anything you can do to cushion your head might make things better, but bicycle helmets are the least effective method of protecting yourself against most brain injuries.
The CPSC standards for helmets actually make things worse. Couple that with the fact that helmets are designed to look good and to ventilate the rider and things get worse.
The marketing of helmets is driven by one key design concept: vents. Vents are the holes in the helmet. The vents in helmets have increased dramatically in number and size over the past ten years. The vents create an aerodynamic appearance and also allow air ventilation to the cyclist’s head. The vents also make the helmet look “cool” based
upon marketing studies conducted by manufacturers. Manufacturers know that the vents provide no aerodynamic advantage to individuals other than professional cyclists.
Manufacturers also know that the thinner the helmet is and the more vent space there is – the more dense the foam has to be to manage any energy from an impact.
PDF
Manufacturers use hard foam, and that actually reduces the safety factor. You are better off building a helmet out of cardboard yourself, it will cushion your head better.
Guess what? The government knows this, and does not care.
CPSC statistics show that since 1991 the number of head injuries in bicycle accidents has increased 10 percent, even though helmet use has risen significantly. Safety experts concur that while helmets do not always prevent injury, they are very effective at reducing head injury
severity when accidents do occur. Therefore, this data is puzzling to many safetyengineers. Numerous explanations have been posed, but a solution to the problem can only result from the implementation of more stringent safety standards which require manufacturers to place more focus on safety design with little room for marketing driven concepts.
If you read the PDF you will see that helmets are designed not to crack under an impact of less than 20 mph directly on the top of the helmet. They are not designed not to pass the force of that impact on to the wearer. They do not protect the weakest bones in the skull, nor do they protect the face or jaw. Try falling off a bike and landing on the top of your head sometime.
Helmets are many things. They look good, they do not overheat your head, and they make you look like you are a professional rider. They are designed to do all of that.
They are also designed to make manufacturers money.
What they are not designed to do is keep your brain safe.
That is what this thread is about. That is what the video was about, and the culture of fear that helps to sell a product that is effectively useless.
This is not a statistical correlation, it is a fact that I used statistics to help demonstrate. The fact that you got distracted by one of your pet peeves, which I actually understand, does not make my argument wrong. It does, however, mean I could have presented it better.