That original post was excellent reading material, Ekram! Thanks a lot. I could definitely see the evolution of such a scenario occurring in the fossil-starved world of tomorrow, though I would not foresee the degeneration to be so great and so fast as to engender open war in Europe. Let's be clear, if push REALLY comes to shove it's not totally unimaginable, but a sort of imperial military "duel" between France and Germany will be unlikely for the simple reason that, even with nuclear deterrence gone, anything of the sort would bury Europe forever. That's the whole point of the European project, which I think this guy and many if not most other analysts are too quick to write off. Just this year we saw the German and other European leaderships approve over a trillion dollar rescue package despite huge opposition from the public; the Spanish parliament and the Greek government imposed harsh austerity measures to counteract the confidence crisis and close the deficit despite the fact that it will cost them many allies and the enormous public outcry. I'm not saying these measures may be effective or that they make good economic sense, but from a purely political standpoint it is undeniable that the European elite is still committed to holding the Union together at huge political and economic cost. This latest crisis will pale in comparison to the demographic-energy crises of the future, but it is nevertheless important to keep in mind that there is certainly space for cooperation and clear will to do so transnationally in Europe.
Nevertheless, this kind of doom-and-gloom scenario theorizing in the OP is extremely helpful precisely in order to understand the kind of future Europe and the world should work NOW to avoid.
Before I moved permanently to Turkey, I was born and lived in Germany.
It was in the Federal State of Baden-Württemberg, the most South-Western State in Germany.
I lived exactly between the cities of Karlsruhe and Stuttgart, the city was called Pforzheim.
The lengthiest distance from 2 of the 3 cities is 70 KM (43 Miles). Within these 43 Miles companies like Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, Bosch and several others were historcially founded. In a globalized world you cant say anymore that they have their "headquarters" in this region, as they produce in whole world.
The slogan of the Federal State is: "We can everything except speaking High German dialect".
It is also one of the most Christian conservative states in Germany, yet, people are nice and if you do not do any harm to them, they wont to you. Police is omnipresent, not because there was much crime, but showing presence.
In Germany there is something they call "Federal State finance equalization". Rich Federal States transfer money to Federal States which have budget deficits.
A similiar system we have in Turkey.
Since the equalization payments were introduced in Germany, Baden-Württemberg never received any money from others, but alway payed out:
Länderfinanzausgleich ? Wikipedia
What I want to say is, that there are some regions in Germany that are very productive, cutting-edge in innovation and competitive on global scale. Baden-Württemberg is not the only region. As long as those regions remain in German Federal System, the German government even with sinking population trend will always have a role to play, but the German people of today are more pacifist leaning. Afghanistan issue is very controversive in Germany, and something like the Bush-Government "let's go to war"-adventure will not happen with German population. Independent from which government (conservative / social) rules in Germany, about 50-60 % of population votes for socials, leftist and greens in every election. The rest votes for Christian conservatives and Market Liberalists.
The German Christian Conservatives are also not American-type, plane they are a mixture of secular and conservative values.
There is no thing like "We have to defend Christian values in the world" type of adventure population, Germany's support for Israel is also very controverse. Government supports Israel because of Adolf-Pharao, but German population swaps over to the feeling of having "payed" and "apologized" enough to be held guilty in present days, the youngest generation leading the way.
According to polls (3% error margin), 49% of Germans say Israekl is agressive. 59% say Israel does not respect human rights, 13 % say Israel has no existence right,
and 70% of young Germans think, there is no special historical bondage (Adolf Hitler) to be respected between todays German government and Israel.
Umfrage: Jeder zweite Deutsche hält Israel für aggressiv - Nahost - FOCUS Online
Like Shimon Peres talking with German media about shifting generations in German-Israeli relations, he complains and is anxious that they younger generation of Germans see Israel more a threat then Iran:
Im Gespräch mit Israels Präsident Peres: „Mit Fanatikern sind Kompromisse nicht möglich“ - Hintergründe - Politik - FAZ.NET
Before the Afghanistan participation of German Army, the Bundeswehr was a pacifist army. In German constitution it says, the Bundeswehr is not allowed to engage in offensive war.
The Afhanistan particpation under ISAF was sold as humanitarian engagement and alliance-commitments.
Only in first quarter of 2010, when increasingly German soldiers died in Afghanistan the politicans talked of war to legitimize shifting heavy war gear to Afghanistan.
There were some sideline effects like court-rulings of which jurisprudence and authority is to be applied for wrongdoings of German soldiers under war-engagement on foreign territory.
Somehow the Germany, unlike the Japanese, have made the shift from pacifist and guilty Army-Status into normal status. Still, many do not agree and most Germans (62%) want their troops immediately return home.
Konflikte: Umfrage: 62 Prozent für Afghanistan-Abzug - dpa-Ticker - Politik - Handelsblatt.com
As I still travel to Germany due to work very often in a month, I would say there is resignation that there is no other option besides supporting the troops. People want their troops return but not demoralize them.
Only 21% of Germans say, that if they could turn back time to 2001, they would again support sending "Humanitarian Mission (Bundeswehr)" to Afghanistan:
