FOX news. obama 45-romney 40

[JakeStarkey]

Not as hopeful as some to the left of center think.

The % is 46. Truman, Eisenhower, and Clinton in re-election years where they got their asses kicked in the previous off-year for Congress all had 46%. No one has ever won with 45% in a two-man race.

 

[JoeB131]

Wow suddenly Obama supporters like Fox if the poll numbers said Romney 45 Obama 40 I wonder what they would be saying. Actually I don't we all know.

I think they'd be asking sensible questions like "Why does every other poll on the RCP average show Obama with a lead and this one shows Romney with one? What are they doing differently?"

That's what I'd ask.

I'm not sure if these polls mean anything because they all still show that anywhere from 7 - 15% of the electorate hasn't made up their minds yet.

At the end of the day, you'll have about 45% who will vote for the Republican and 48% who will vote for the Democrat, because without a third party in there, neither party really has gone below those numbers in the last four elections.

And then you will have that 7% or so who will vote on who they'd like to go have a beer with.

And that guy is not Willard Mitt Romney.

Really they would ask sensible questions I remember very recently someone posted the Bloomberg poll that showed Obama up by 13 points no other poll in RCP average shows anything even close to that and there were no sensible questions being asked about that poll. I think the more likely responses you would have gotten is Fox is biased it's a arm of the Republican party the standard talking points not sensible questions.

I've said several times that I think the Bloomberg Poll is an outlier or had some issues with the sample. I'd like it to be true, but I don't think it is.

 

[JoeB131]

Given it's fox, the real numbers are likely +15, in line with Bloomberg's latest poll

Uh no. It's more realistic that Romney wins by a comfortable margin. O hasn't done anything to deserve re-election.

And if there were a referendum, you'd have a point.

But it's a choice.

If you asked me to vote on the topic "Does Barack Obama merit a second term?", I'd definitely vote "no".

But you are asking me, "Do you want to turn America over to Wall Street Bloodsuckers and the Evil Mormon Cult?", and I'm not going along with that one, either.

 

[Capstone]

On a related note:

Matching Obama against Romney in each of these key states - no one has won the White House since 1960 without taking at least two of them - shows:

Florida: Obama edges Romney 45 - 41 percent;
Ohio: Obama over Romney 47 - 38 percent;
Pennsylvania: Obama tops Romney 45 - 39 percent.

"President Barack Obama has decent margins over Gov. Mitt Romney in Ohio and Pennsylvania and a smaller advantage in Florida. If he can keep those leads in all three of these key swing states through election day he would be virtually assured of re-election," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Granted, these numbers are nearly 24 hours old...

 

[candycorn]

Wow suddenly Obama supporters like Fox if the poll numbers said Romney 45 Obama 40 I wonder what they would be saying. Actually I don't we all know.

Good point. I think it is too close to call.

Didn't you just side with "The T" when he called people Idiots for making predictions?

 

[JoeB131]

On a related note:

Matching Obama against Romney in each of these key states - no one has won the White House since 1960 without taking at least two of them - shows:

Florida: Obama edges Romney 45 - 41 percent;
Ohio: Obama over Romney 47 - 38 percent;
Pennsylvania: Obama tops Romney 45 - 39 percent.

"President Barack Obama has decent margins over Gov. Mitt Romney in Ohio and Pennsylvania and a smaller advantage in Florida. If he can keep those leads in all three of these key swing states through election day he would be virtually assured of re-election," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Granted, these numbers are nearly 24 hours old...

Right now, the RCP average has Obama leading in every swing state except Arizona, Missouri and North Carolina.

 

[Capstone]

Right now, the RCP average has Obama leading in every swing state except Arizona, Missouri and North Carolina.

But the full weight of the super-pack-hammer is yet to fall.

 

[JoeB131]

Right now, the RCP average has Obama leading in every swing state except Arizona, Missouri and North Carolina.

But the full weight of the super-pack-hammer is yet to fall.

I think the "Super-Pac" hammer is overrated. Romney enjoyed a huge Super-Pac advantage over the Not-Romneys in the primaries, but he struggled against them pretty much the whole way.

Here's a telling stat.

In the 2008 primary cycle John McCain's final tally in the Primaries was 9.9 million out of 20.8 million votes cast.

In the 2012 primary cycle, Willard's final tally was 9.8 million out of 18.4 million votes cast for Republican candidates.

What we are not seeing here is a huge surve of Democrats who voted for Obama or Hillary going to the GOP side this time in the primaries. If anything, there was less enthusiasm for Republicans this time.

Yeah, so a SuperPac might be great at flinging mud on someone like Gingrich or crushing a non-entity like Santorum, but against an incumbant president that a lot of people already like as a person... meh, not so much.

 

[skookerasbil]

Hey......who knows........perhaps America has come to a time where they embrace an economic depression. Anything is possible I guess.

But if history is any indication, incumbents owning an economic disaster get schooled in any general election. And I am still going on the fact that John McCain, a political bozo and veritable fossil missed winning several key swing states by less than a handful of points at the time of economic collapse. Been riding that fact for 2 years.Indepednets dont like being bamboozeled s0ns. THey decided the election in 2008. They'll decide it again.

 

[JoeB131]

Hey......who knows........perhaps America has come to a time where they embrace an economic depression. Anything is possible I guess.

But if history is any indication, incumbents owning an economic disaster get schooled in any general election.

Not so much...

Most people still think that Bush caused this disaster, not Obama. They all are fair enough to realize that he was dealt a bad hand.

The point is, if there was an anti-Obama backlash, there would be a huge desire to participate in the GOP selection process. There really wasn't. Romney got less votes than McCain did, and Republicans overall got less votes in 2012 than they did in 2008. That doesn't bode well for November.

 

[Capstone]

[...] Romney enjoyed a huge Super-Pac advantage over the Not-Romneys in the primaries, but he struggled against them pretty much the whole way.

That he prevailed as a Mormon in the party of fundies and evangelicals ...is a testament to the power of big money influence.

The same dynamic that spared Walker's ass in Wiscy (I.E. the 7-1 disparity in spending) will ultimately make the presidential race far closer than it should be.

 

[skookerasbil]

Hey......who knows........perhaps America has come to a time where they embrace an economic depression. Anything is possible I guess.

But if history is any indication, incumbents owning an economic disaster get schooled in any general election.

Not so much...

Most people still think that Bush caused this disaster, not Obama. They all are fair enough to realize that he was dealt a bad hand.

The point is, if there was an anti-Obama backlash, there would be a huge desire to participate in the GOP selection process. There really wasn't. Romney got less votes than McCain did, and Republicans overall got less votes in 2012 than they did in 2008. That doesn't bode well for November.

meh.......thats the line you hear 24/7 over at MSNBC.........nowhere else. What Obama wont be able to overcome is the passion level. He rode it in 2008, but now, the passion is to get this bozo out. Every single swinging dick this side of the center will be heading to the polls come November, even if Boob McNut was running for the GOP.

 

[WillowTree]

it was tied 3 weeks ago 43-43. just saw this on fox news. romney is simply not giving anyone a reason to vote FOR him.

obama is the reason I'm voting for him idiot.

 

[Zxereus]

it was tied 3 weeks ago 43-43. just saw this on fox news. romney is simply not giving anyone a reason to vote FOR him.

Romney hasn't even announced his running mate yet, where he'll likely get a bump unless he screws up the pick.
Give it time Sarah.

So tell me Sarah, you've already announced you wont be voting for Romney, if the SCOTUS upholds Obamacare today, and you have Romney saying he'll work to overturn it if elected, will that change your mind ?

 

[Zxereus]

it was tied 3 weeks ago 43-43. just saw this on fox news. romney is simply not giving anyone a reason to vote FOR him.

obama is the reason I'm voting for him idiot.

EXACTLY, and thank you !!

If you're a moderate, or a conservative, Obama being on the ballot should be the only motivation you need.

 

[JoeB131]

[...] Romney enjoyed a huge Super-Pac advantage over the Not-Romneys in the primaries, but he struggled against them pretty much the whole way.

That he prevailed as a Mormon in the party of fundies and evangelicals ...is a testament to the power of big money influence.

The same dynamic that spared Walker's ass in Wiscy (I.E. the 7-1 disparity in spending) will ultimately make the presidential race far closer than it should be.

Actually, if the GOP didn't have it's head so far up its ass, they'd be beating Obama by double digits.

Obama is in Carter/Bush-41 territory. Fair or not, these are not the kind of stats that get people re-elected.

Its only because the GOP has become so radical and Romney is such an awful person (and a Mormon) that this is competitive.

And I don't think Superpac money is going to change that dynamic.

In Wisconsin, Walker won because the unions were abusing the purpose of Recall. Recall should be there if you find out the Governor is burying dead hookers out behind the mansion. It shouldn't be there because, "He did things I didn't like after running on saying he'd do those things". It's not a "do-over" election.

 

[Leweman]

Too bad that the election isn't today and that polls aren't votes. Romney does need to speak up on these issues. I think once the olympics are over the political season will heat up and Romney will either make or break himself.

 

[JoeB131]

Too bad that the election isn't today and that polls aren't votes. Romney does need to speak up on these issues. I think once the olympics are over the political season will heat up and Romney will either make or break himself.

Why does he have to wait for the Olympics to be over?

Does anyone even still care about the Olympics?

 

[Black_Label]

[...] Romney enjoyed a huge Super-Pac advantage over the Not-Romneys in the primaries, but he struggled against them pretty much the whole way.

That he prevailed as a Mormon in the party of fundies and evangelicals ...is a testament to the power of big money influence.

The same dynamic that spared Walker's ass in Wiscy (I.E. the 7-1 disparity in spending) will ultimately make the presidential race far closer than it should be.

Actually, if the GOP didn't have it's head so far up its ass, they'd be beating Obama by double digits.

Obama is in Carter/Bush-41 territory. Fair or not, these are not the kind of stats that get people re-elected.

Its only because the GOP has become so radical and Romney is such an awful person (and a Mormon) that this is competitive.

And I don't think Superpac money is going to change that dynamic.

True, if Huntsman was the nomination, it would be game over Obama by a longshot, but luckily the GOP isn't smart enough to elect the best candidate

In Wisconsin, Walker won because the unions were abusing the purpose of Recall. Recall should be there if you find out the Governor is burying dead hookers out behind the mansion. It shouldn't be there because, "He did things I didn't like after running on saying he'd do those things". It's not a "do-over" election.

Walker won because the GOP does what it does best by resorting to dirty tricks, voter fraud, suppression, and million and millions of out of state, right wing funds from Walker's masters like the Koch's.

 

[Leweman]

Too bad that the election isn't today and that polls aren't votes. Romney does need to speak up on these issues. I think once the olympics are over the political season will heat up and Romney will either make or break himself.

Why does he have to wait for the Olympics to be over?

Does anyone even still care about the Olympics?

He doesn't have to wait but I think it's about strategically spending money and resources. In my opinion the guy has had many of opportunity to at least speak up on these issues of amnesty and Supreme court rulings and hasn't taken advantage. Yeah people still care about the Olympics for some reason.