Flash-Polling software "Voter Gravity" has Fiorina ahead in NH, but it's the methodology....

[Statistikhengst]

oreo was kind enough to already start a thread on the results, which you can see graphically here:

Margin: Fiorina +3

Thanks for making the thread, Oreo!

The poll, produced using Voter Gravity's software, claims that it reached 2,389 Republican RVs from New Hampshire who responded. That is a very large polling group, which I can only find good. It's the methodology that is new and interesting. Notice that I didn't write "good" or "bad", but rather, interesting.

From the actual polling write-up:

In Voter Gravity’s latest presidential flash poll through touchtone phone responses, we surveyed 2,839 New Hampshire Republican Primary Voters the day after the CNN Debate, and they put Carly Fiorina in the top spot at 22%.

Consistent with our usual targets for polling, everyone in the poll had voted in the last 3 Republican Primary and General Elections in addition to the 2008 and 2012 Presidential Primary.

The trick is: how do they get so many to respond so quickly?

Well, you can find out about that here:

About - Voter Gravity

First, Voter Gravity self-identifies itself as a Conservative organization that provides smartphone-ready polling software. You can see that at the link.

Here is the first helpful bit of information:

Voter Gravity is a map and mobile-based voter contact platform with an integrated suite of tools. We place powerful data and user-friendly technology into the hands of political campaigns and groups of every size. Voter Gravity is the first integrated database platform on the center-right. Our tools are battle-tested and ready to enable candidates and activists to get the right message to the right people as efficiently as possible this year and beyond.

Second, it uses a telephone app to locate people it wants to poll, based on their demographics:

Features - Voter Gravity

The touchtone flash-poll CAN mean that a simple question is flashed across the telephone of a person who has the app installed, for instance: "who would you vote for in the New Hampshire Republican primary? 1= Donald Trump, 2=Carly Fiorina"...etc.... and a person who has the app installed can immediately, per one touch, send in an answer. But it doesn't look as if Voter Gravity reduces itself to just Smartphones. It's says "touchtone phones", which means that a certain percentage of people in the target group will be reached by landline as well.

The website for Voter Gravity refers more than once to its importance to campaigns, which is usually an indicator of a private, internal pollster, so I bet that VG is being used by a number of Republican campaigns internally. A number of campaigns bought and used Rasmussen's lighter version of software, called "Pulse", in 2012.

Now, I find nothing in the world wrong with this and the openness of the polling firm I find to be quite refreshing.

Voter Gravity also has a youtube presence, where the use of its software is explained in a number of videos:

Voter Gravity

For instance, about getting started once you have bought the software:



Or, about making and using the phone database:




Voter Gravity is based in Virginia. It was started sometime in 2013 and received with 2 Million in Venture Capital on November 26th, 2013.

https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/voter-gravity

Voter Gravity's CEO is Ned Ryun, who graduated from the University of Kansas and is the son of former HOR Representative Jim Ryun (R-KS-02, 1995-2007). He is also president of "American Majority", which is essentially a Right-Wing training-camp for data-geeks, the Right's answer to the data-geekiness on the Left. He was also a speech-write for President George W. Bush (43).

Here is Ryun's bio in the American Conservative:

Ned Ryun

He did a big write-up in the American Spectator in May 2013 about closing the digital divide with the Left vis-a-vis electioneering. It is a very well-written and enlightening work from a very smart man on the Right, imo:

The (Real) Great Divide

...Apart from the relatively close nature of the race, one of the great advantages that Obama’s team had was time. They spent six years perfecting their data analytics. Then 18 months before the 2012 election, they began investing heavily in technology. By the time all was said and done, Obama had more than 300 engineers and digital staff on his team. They built tools like a computer program called Narwhal and an accessible organizing network called Dashboard. And, of course, they did some serious data crunching. Romney’s campaign really only began investing heavily in data and technology in the late spring of 2012.

In addition, there is no doubt that Obama’s team was far superior to Romney’s in terms of sheer talent and experience. For instance, Harper Reed, the chief technical officer of the Obama campaign, was the CTO of the online T-shirt company Threadless for nearly five years, and he had significant experience and success in crowd-sourcing and cloud computing in the private sector.

Despite these disadvantages, the GOP can make up the data and technology gap in a relatively short time. There are naysayers, but I believe that with the right investment, the hole could be closed in less than a year. There is real talent on the right that can build the necessary tools. The fundamental question is whether conservative leaders will truly commit not only to gathering the data and building the tools, but to actually implementing them on a wide enough scale to make an impact. The best technology in the world means nothing until it can be placed in the hands of tens of thousands of grassroots activists.

Technology is important. But being there is far more important. And by “there,” I mean in local communities every day, for years.

Those on the left were in communities, developing personal relationships, giving a face and a human touch to everything they were working on, and quite frankly, showing that they care (the cynic would say their caring has ulterior motives, but at least they’re doing something). This last lesson is critical to understand: While we do live in the 21st century, with all its amazing technology, we are still social creatures who crave personal relationships, desire special attention, and want to know that we are unique. All the tools in the world won’t ever change this fundamental part of the human equation—though data, information, and technology can certainly reinforce it when applied properly.

What is also important about permanently having organizers in local communities is that, as a rule, unless there is someone on the ground making something happen, nothing typically happens.

You can also find voter gravity on Facebook:

Voter Gravity

VG was also active in CPAC 2014 and 2015.

Ned Ryun self-identifies as a Christian Conservative, according to his twitter-feed:

Actually, considering his bio, I would not be surprised if Ned Ryun runs for political office in the near future.


VG's logo is also very interesting and sends some subliminal messages:

Or, in its larger form:

First, in both cases, the backgrounds are red, from light to very deep dark red. No real blue to be found in the logo itself. It shows the bottom half of the capital letter "G", with an arrow attached to the bottom curvature of the G. Perhaps it indicates that Gravity is only half-way there and the only way is up?? LOL. Either way, I think it is a very effective logo.

Facit I: the New Hampshire poll is interesting not only for the results, but the methodology used and for the fact that this pollster is actually a software provider for campaigns, which means that at least one campaign must have done the survey. This all points very strongly to "internal" pollster and not to "public" pollster. At the twitter feed for Gravity, some are already asking whether or not RealClearPolitics will include this poll in its aggregate. Well, RCP has a policy of almost never allowing polling from internal pollsters, so wait and see what happens. Finally, the poll itself lists no MoE (Margin of Error), but usually for such a large group, the MoE (say, for Quinnipiac) is about +/-2.5. This would probably mean that Fiorina's lean lead over Trump is probably just a tick outside the MoE.

Facit II: such pollsters must, imo, be very careful about polling "inbreeding". This kind of detailed demographic work within just one political group may work if you only want to poll within your own party, but could lead to very stray results when dealing with General Election polling, as we very clearly saw in 2012.

Again, I find it very refreshing when a Conservative polling organization makes no bones about its political bent and doesn't try to pass itself off as neutral or non-partisan, a Gravis (R) desperately tries to do. And yet, this much attention to detail is the key to success for any organization.

-Stat

 

[Luddly Neddite]

Good grief but you've been busy! Thank you very much, Stat.

Watching the polls, its funny to see that none of the "races" are going the way the RWs here said they would.

 

[Luddly Neddite]

Just heard a funny line ...

Dead Man Walkering

 

[rightwinger]

I was impressed by Fiorina she stood out in a big field

But I suspect she is more form than substance. Rubio seemed to have a much better understanding of the issues. Unlike his mentor Jeb, he seemed more dynamic and showed some personality

 

[Derideo_Te]

Good to know that someone on the right understands technology and how to exploit it.

Too bad he can't educate the extremist rightwing doofi on how emails work.

But I digress!

Yes, that poll is self serving in that the demographic that responded was biased by being "self selected" because they own the app.

But given that it was purely internal to the GOP that should not be a factor in the results for the primary. Be curious to see if he does a similar poll after the 1st Dem debate.

Not surprised to see Cruella Fiorina starting to move up since the bloom is fading from the T-Rump rose slightly and Carson "lacks energy". (Where have we heard that before? )