First-quarter GDP growth will be just 0.3% as tariffs stoke stagflation conditions, says CNBC survey

[Zincwarrior]

Consensus forecast for the 1st QTR of Trump's second administration is just .3%. The spectre of Cartesque stagflation is rearing its head.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/31/first-quarter-gdp-growth-will-be-just-0point3percent-as-tariffs-stoke-stagflation-conditions-says-cnbc-survey.html

• Economic growth in the first quarter was just 0.3%, according to CNBC’s Rapid Update which tallied the forecasts of 14 economists.
• The survey also shows Core PCE inflation will remain stuck at around 2.9% for most of the year.
• The dour new forecasts come as the decline in consumer and business sentiment from the emerging trade war is showing up in real economic activity.

Policy uncertainty and new sweeping tariffs from the Trump administration are combining to create a stagflationary outlook for the U.S. economy in the latest CNBC Rapid Update.

The Rapid Update, averaging forecasts from 14 economists for GDP and inflation, sees first quarter growth registering an anemic 0.3% compared with the 2.3% reported in the fourth quarter of 2024. It would be the weakest growth since 2022 as the economy emerged from the pandemic.

Core PCE inflation, meanwhile, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, will remain stuck at around 2.9% for most of the year before resuming its decline in the fourth quarter.

Behind the dour GDP forecasts is new evidence that the decline in consumer and business sentiment is showing up in real economic activity. The Commerce Department on Friday reported that real, or inflation-adjusted consumer spending in February rose just 0.1%, after a decline of -0.6% in January. Action Economics dropped its outlook for spending growth to just 0.2% in this quarter from 4% in the fourth quarter.

 

[theHawk]

“Tallied the forecasts of 14 economists” LMAO.


Yea, I’m sure this will be accurate.

 

[Zincwarrior]

“Tallied the forecasts of 14 economists” LMAO.


Yea, I’m sure this will be accurate.

I am thinking its high.

 

[1srelluc]

Wait, I thought the dems were predicting negative growth....OP moving the goalposts again?

 

[shockedcanadian]

Consensus forecast for the 1st QTR of Trump's second administration is just .3%. The spectre of Cartesque stagflation is rearing its head.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/31/first-quarter-gdp-growth-will-be-just-0point3percent-as-tariffs-stoke-stagflation-conditions-says-cnbc-survey.html

• Economic growth in the first quarter was just 0.3%, according to CNBC’s Rapid Update which tallied the forecasts of 14 economists.
• The survey also shows Core PCE inflation will remain stuck at around 2.9% for most of the year.
• The dour new forecasts come as the decline in consumer and business sentiment from the emerging trade war is showing up in real economic activity.

Policy uncertainty and new sweeping tariffs from the Trump administration are combining to create a stagflationary outlook for the U.S. economy in the latest CNBC Rapid Update.

The Rapid Update, averaging forecasts from 14 economists for GDP and inflation, sees first quarter growth registering an anemic 0.3% compared with the 2.3% reported in the fourth quarter of 2024. It would be the weakest growth since 2022 as the economy emerged from the pandemic.

Core PCE inflation, meanwhile, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, will remain stuck at around 2.9% for most of the year before resuming its decline in the fourth quarter.

Behind the dour GDP forecasts is new evidence that the decline in consumer and business sentiment is showing up in real economic activity. The Commerce Department on Friday reported that real, or inflation-adjusted consumer spending in February rose just 0.1%, after a decline of -0.6% in January. Action Economics dropped its outlook for spending growth to just 0.2% in this quarter from 4% in the fourth quarter.

Trump inherited the mass debt and the economy was a mirage, based on government spending and "creating" government jobs.

Tariffs have nothing to do with the economy he inherited, it was always going to be the convenient excuse though. Did any of these experts blame Bidens IRA and massive spending campaigns for the poor economy and inflation?

 

[rightwinger]

.3 percent?

I think that by the time the report comes out, we will have negative GDP

First negative quarter of a recession

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

Consensus forecast for the 1st QTR of Trump's second administration is just .3%. The spectre of Cartesque stagflation is rearing its head.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/31/first-quarter-gdp-growth-will-be-just-0point3percent-as-tariffs-stoke-stagflation-conditions-says-cnbc-survey.html

• Economic growth in the first quarter was just 0.3%, according to CNBC’s Rapid Update which tallied the forecasts of 14 economists.
• The survey also shows Core PCE inflation will remain stuck at around 2.9% for most of the year.
• The dour new forecasts come as the decline in consumer and business sentiment from the emerging trade war is showing up in real economic activity.

Policy uncertainty and new sweeping tariffs from the Trump administration are combining to create a stagflationary outlook for the U.S. economy in the latest CNBC Rapid Update.

The Rapid Update, averaging forecasts from 14 economists for GDP and inflation, sees first quarter growth registering an anemic 0.3% compared with the 2.3% reported in the fourth quarter of 2024. It would be the weakest growth since 2022 as the economy emerged from the pandemic.

Core PCE inflation, meanwhile, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, will remain stuck at around 2.9% for most of the year before resuming its decline in the fourth quarter.

Behind the dour GDP forecasts is new evidence that the decline in consumer and business sentiment is showing up in real economic activity. The Commerce Department on Friday reported that real, or inflation-adjusted consumer spending in February rose just 0.1%, after a decline of -0.6% in January. Action Economics dropped its outlook for spending growth to just 0.2% in this quarter from 4% in the fourth quarter.

For a second time Trump will destroy a Democratic president’s strong economy – remarkable.

Voting for a Republican for president is the definition of insanity.

 

[Zincwarrior]

For a second time Trump will destroy a Democratic president’s strong economy – remarkable.

Voting for a Republican for president is the definition of insanity.

Trump is not a Republican.

 

[SmokeALib]

Consensus forecast for the 1st QTR of Trump's second administration is just .3%. The spectre of Cartesque stagflation is rearing its head.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/31/first-quarter-gdp-growth-will-be-just-0point3percent-as-tariffs-stoke-stagflation-conditions-says-cnbc-survey.html

• Economic growth in the first quarter was just 0.3%, according to CNBC’s Rapid Update which tallied the forecasts of 14 economists.
• The survey also shows Core PCE inflation will remain stuck at around 2.9% for most of the year.
• The dour new forecasts come as the decline in consumer and business sentiment from the emerging trade war is showing up in real economic activity.

Policy uncertainty and new sweeping tariffs from the Trump administration are combining to create a stagflationary outlook for the U.S. economy in the latest CNBC Rapid Update.

The Rapid Update, averaging forecasts from 14 economists for GDP and inflation, sees first quarter growth registering an anemic 0.3% compared with the 2.3% reported in the fourth quarter of 2024. It would be the weakest growth since 2022 as the economy emerged from the pandemic.

Core PCE inflation, meanwhile, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, will remain stuck at around 2.9% for most of the year before resuming its decline in the fourth quarter.

Behind the dour GDP forecasts is new evidence that the decline in consumer and business sentiment is showing up in real economic activity. The Commerce Department on Friday reported that real, or inflation-adjusted consumer spending in February rose just 0.1%, after a decline of -0.6% in January. Action Economics dropped its outlook for spending growth to just 0.2% in this quarter from 4% in the fourth quarter.

CNBC lol IS fake news.

 

[theHawk]

I am thinking its high.

Of course you hope for less.

 

[leftwinger]

Stopping Trillions of GOVT dollars flooded out may cause short term pause in GDP. Long term it will be a positive. But the Anti American commmee Stain, they know this.

 

[sealybobo]

Trump inherited the mass debt and the economy was a mirage, based on government spending and "creating" government jobs.

Tariffs have nothing to do with the economy he inherited, it was always going to be the convenient excuse though. Did any of these experts blame Bidens IRA and massive spending campaigns for the poor economy and inflation?

But everything was fine! What wasn't fine, Trump isn't fixing. Boy you sure are dumb.

I think you are confused. Trump inherited debt and inflation. But inflation was coming down and I don't see the debt lowering even with all his cuts. So these cuts are all going to go to corporate tax breaks. Do you understand that? Got it?

So Trump inherited an economy where we were adding 200,000 jobs a months. How's he doing? GDP was 2.5%? How's he doing? How's the stock market doing?

Do you realize if he did tariff the right way it would be one thing but on again off again causing confusion and chaos? Are you not paying attention?

 

[sealybobo]

Stopping Trillions of GOVT dollars flooded out may cause short term pause in GDP. Long term it will be a positive. But the Anti American commmee Stain, they know this.

That's what they say. But first it was "i'm going to bring prices down on day one". Now it's "yea my policies are going to increase inflation but just wait 2 years"

I thought kicking illegals out was part B of his plan to help the only people hurting, blue collar uneducated dopes? Now we see Florida is introducing a bill to allow 14 year olds to work 10pm to 6pm on school nights. Boy, they'll do everything they can before the raise wages huh?

You're being duped. The question is, do you care?

Trump likes to compare himself with Reagan? His results are a lot more like Jimmy Carter's

Jim Cramer Blasts Trump Over The Stock Market — And Made This Shocking Comparison

The president wants to be remembered like Ronald Reagan, but Jim Cramer found Trump’s actual match.

www.huffpost.com

 

[tyroneweaver]

Consensus forecast for the 1st QTR of Trump's second administration is just .3%. The spectre of Cartesque stagflation is rearing its head.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/31/first-quarter-gdp-growth-will-be-just-0point3percent-as-tariffs-stoke-stagflation-conditions-says-cnbc-survey.html

• Economic growth in the first quarter was just 0.3%, according to CNBC’s Rapid Update which tallied the forecasts of 14 economists.
• The survey also shows Core PCE inflation will remain stuck at around 2.9% for most of the year.
• The dour new forecasts come as the decline in consumer and business sentiment from the emerging trade war is showing up in real economic activity.

Policy uncertainty and new sweeping tariffs from the Trump administration are combining to create a stagflationary outlook for the U.S. economy in the latest CNBC Rapid Update.

The Rapid Update, averaging forecasts from 14 economists for GDP and inflation, sees first quarter growth registering an anemic 0.3% compared with the 2.3% reported in the fourth quarter of 2024. It would be the weakest growth since 2022 as the economy emerged from the pandemic.

Core PCE inflation, meanwhile, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, will remain stuck at around 2.9% for most of the year before resuming its decline in the fourth quarter.

Behind the dour GDP forecasts is new evidence that the decline in consumer and business sentiment is showing up in real economic activity. The Commerce Department on Friday reported that real, or inflation-adjusted consumer spending in February rose just 0.1%, after a decline of -0.6% in January. Action Economics dropped its outlook for spending growth to just 0.2% in this quarter from 4% in the fourth quarter.

at least it will be created by non government entities that will create a tax base

 

[sealybobo]

.3 percent?

I think that by the time the report comes out, we will have negative GDP

First negative quarter of a recession

President Donald Trump has dubbed April 2 “Liberation Day,” promising to unveil a new round of aggressive tariffs on Wednesday, which he claims will free the U.S. from its reliance on foreign goods and bring hundreds of billions of dollars to the government.
But many congressional Republicans aren’t feeling very excited about being liberated. Like most economists, they worry about the negative effects of imposing across-the-board taxes on imports from other countries, fearing they will hike prices for their constituents and wreck the economy.

“Probably not,” Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said when asked if he’ll be joining in Trump’s celebrations. “It’s a high-risk move on his part. I don’t know what his strategy is, but look at what the market’s reaction is. I have a similar reaction. I’m concerned.”

Two of the three major U.S. markets closed out their worst quarter in March since 2022, back when Trump spent a large amount of his time blaming his predecessor, former President Joe Biden, anytime there was a selloff on Wall Street.
Even Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), a stalwart Trump ally, acknowledged that his constituents would feel pain if the president’s reciprocal tariffs are levied on nearly all American trading partners around the world.

“My people back in Alabama, you know, they’re all concerned about car tariffs, all those parts,” Tuberville said. “We have seven car manufacturers in our state, so you got parts that are coming in, it’s gonna raise prices. Prices are gonna come up.”
Trump defended his approach over the weekend, saying he “couldn’t care less” if his looming 25% tariffs raise the prices of foreign-made vehicles for Americans.
“I hope they raise their prices, because if they do, people are gonna buy American-made cars. We have plenty,” he told NBC News.

He doesn't understand most of those cars have parts that come from other countries!!!

No cars sold to American consumers are fully made in the U.S. Most vehicles are assembled with imported parts that cross the country’s borders, sometimes several times, particularly across the U.S.-Canada border.
Republicans will get an opportunity to rebuke Trump over his tariffs on Canada, a longtime U.S. ally the president has threatened to annex, on Tuesday. The Senate is set to vote on a privileged legislation offered by Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) that would block them from going into effect.
“President Trump’s taxes on Canadian goods have sent our economy into chaos, and Americans aren’t buying what he’s selling,” Kaine said in a statement ahead of the vote. “They know they will pay the price with higher costs for everyday items, and their confidence in the economy is the lowest it has been in recent years.”

The bill has no chance of making it to Trump’s desk even if it passes in the Senate, however. The GOP-controlled House changed its rules to disallow the possibility of taking up such a challenge to the president’s trade authorities in the government funding bill Congress passed last month.
Still, a few Republicans could join Democrats in voting against the Canada tariffs, including Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Susan Collins (R-Maine), and possibly others. If the measure does pass, it would mark the first time Congress has pushed back against the Trump administration’s policies, even if symbolically.

 

[Frankenstein]

Consensus forecast for the 1st QTR of Trump's second administration is just .3%. The spectre of Cartesque stagflation is rearing its head.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/31/first-quarter-gdp-growth-will-be-just-0point3percent-as-tariffs-stoke-stagflation-conditions-says-cnbc-survey.html

• Economic growth in the first quarter was just 0.3%, according to CNBC’s Rapid Update which tallied the forecasts of 14 economists.
• The survey also shows Core PCE inflation will remain stuck at around 2.9% for most of the year.
• The dour new forecasts come as the decline in consumer and business sentiment from the emerging trade war is showing up in real economic activity.

Policy uncertainty and new sweeping tariffs from the Trump administration are combining to create a stagflationary outlook for the U.S. economy in the latest CNBC Rapid Update.

The Rapid Update, averaging forecasts from 14 economists for GDP and inflation, sees first quarter growth registering an anemic 0.3% compared with the 2.3% reported in the fourth quarter of 2024. It would be the weakest growth since 2022 as the economy emerged from the pandemic.

Core PCE inflation, meanwhile, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator, will remain stuck at around 2.9% for most of the year before resuming its decline in the fourth quarter.

Behind the dour GDP forecasts is new evidence that the decline in consumer and business sentiment is showing up in real economic activity. The Commerce Department on Friday reported that real, or inflation-adjusted consumer spending in February rose just 0.1%, after a decline of -0.6% in January. Action Economics dropped its outlook for spending growth to just 0.2% in this quarter from 4% in the fourth quarter.

E.J. Antoni, Ph.D.

@RealEJAntoni
·
Follow
HOLD ONid no one else notice in today's GDP report that interest on the federal debt DECLINED for the 1st time since...checks notes...Trump was president in '19 and '20. This is incredible news!

 

[sealybobo]

E.J. Antoni, Ph.D.
@RealEJAntoni
·
Follow
HOLD ONid no one else notice in today's GDP report that interest on the federal debt DECLINED for the 1st time since...checks notes...Trump was president in '19 and '20. This is incredible news!

Ballotpedia confirmed Trump's claim. However, these are small and common fluctuations in the size of federal debt.

Yes. Total debt fell $12 billion over Trump's first month in office and grew $211 billion over former President Obama's first month. Total debt is approaching $20 trillion, and relatively small month-to-month fluctuations are common

Debt fluctuations​

Small fluctuations in government debt are a daily occurrence. Much like a business, the government's revenues and outlays change constantly: As explained by the Treasury Department: "[T]here are times when the Federal Government has more cash coming in than it needs to meet its obligations. During these times, the Federal Government invests some of this money and also does not need to do new borrowing to meet its obligations. Incoming revenue rises when individuals and businesses file and pay their federal taxes. When the rise in revenue exceeds what is needed to pay obligations, Treasury can pay down its debt by redeeming more securities than it issues."

Also, yesterday Republicans were saying we are still in Biden's economy. Even Trump said that. So, that means if the debt went down Trump's first month in office, that was Biden's doing.

 

[Frankenstein]

Ballotpedia confirmed Trump's claim. However, these are small and common fluctuations in the size of federal debt.

Yes. Total debt fell $12 billion over Trump's first month in office and grew $211 billion over former President Obama's first month. Total debt is approaching $20 trillion, and relatively small month-to-month fluctuations are common

Debt fluctuations​

Small fluctuations in government debt are a daily occurrence. Much like a business, the government's revenues and outlays change constantly: As explained by the Treasury Department: "[T]here are times when the Federal Government has more cash coming in than it needs to meet its obligations. During these times, the Federal Government invests some of this money and also does not need to do new borrowing to meet its obligations. Incoming revenue rises when individuals and businesses file and pay their federal taxes. When the rise in revenue exceeds what is needed to pay obligations, Treasury can pay down its debt by redeeming more securities than it issues."

Also, yesterday Republicans were saying we are still in Biden's economy. Even Trump said that. So, that means if the debt went down Trump's first month in office, that was Biden's doing.

In other news Trump cured cancer, Democrat lawmakers immediately rip him for causing job loss in the cancer research field

 

[JohnDB]

 

[Conservative from Georgia]

Wait, I thought the dems were predicting negative growth....OP moving the goalposts again?

Actually, you made up the claim the Democrats were expecting negative growth.