william the wie
Gold Member
- Nov 18, 2009
- 16,667
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The D wins in the House mid-terms exceeded the @ 40 R retirements but not by that much.and the Ds lost seats in the Senate. Special circumstances in the Senate: too many vulnerable D seats and crappy D candidates in too many cases but still an historic defeat. Given that the Ds are highly dependent on a relatively few well heeled contributors each of whom has their own agenda the Ds have major problems for 2020:
They are well on their way to a record number of candidates for a nomination. that can and probably will divide the party. It is impossible to know in advance how many contributors will either protest the nominee by withholding at least some of the contributions that would otherwise be available in a general election but it will likely be more than ever before. Much of that money will instead be spent on protestors to attempt to sway the nomination.
Then there is the proposed platform of higher taxes, increased regulation and sanctuary for illegal aliens. This agenda currently sells well in the big media markets but the jobs normally held by poor and poorly educated illegals are also the most easily automated jobs so that part of the platform will simply lead to good feelings on the left as self deportation cures the problem, increased regulation is a maybe, but higher taxes? On who, swing voters or the D contribution base?
By the way between USMC, Chinese and EU regulation a large fraction of the D contributor base is going to be highly irritated at the Ds.
With current tax laws and all non-suicidal proposed means of raising federal revenues will result in even more internal capital flight to impoverish Blue wall states.
Then there is the real possibility of D states going into default. The senate and White house have to be appeased in order to get relief and that will not be pretty. For example, once the insurance settlements are paid over one million people are expected to move from CA to another state and damage to the tax base will likely be worse in percentage terms.
Hopefully the D sugar high will still be growing come 2020.
They are well on their way to a record number of candidates for a nomination. that can and probably will divide the party. It is impossible to know in advance how many contributors will either protest the nominee by withholding at least some of the contributions that would otherwise be available in a general election but it will likely be more than ever before. Much of that money will instead be spent on protestors to attempt to sway the nomination.
Then there is the proposed platform of higher taxes, increased regulation and sanctuary for illegal aliens. This agenda currently sells well in the big media markets but the jobs normally held by poor and poorly educated illegals are also the most easily automated jobs so that part of the platform will simply lead to good feelings on the left as self deportation cures the problem, increased regulation is a maybe, but higher taxes? On who, swing voters or the D contribution base?
By the way between USMC, Chinese and EU regulation a large fraction of the D contributor base is going to be highly irritated at the Ds.
With current tax laws and all non-suicidal proposed means of raising federal revenues will result in even more internal capital flight to impoverish Blue wall states.
Then there is the real possibility of D states going into default. The senate and White house have to be appeased in order to get relief and that will not be pretty. For example, once the insurance settlements are paid over one million people are expected to move from CA to another state and damage to the tax base will likely be worse in percentage terms.
Hopefully the D sugar high will still be growing come 2020.
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