Did the Almost 20% Decline Earlier this year Count as a Bear?

[william the wie]

Market responses right now are consistent with a market that has undergone a bear market so, what I am asking is there any way of looking at the market that can justify that assessment.

 

[Damian]

Market responses right now are consistent with a market that has undergone a bear market so, what I am asking is there any way of looking at the market that can justify that assessment.

Until Trump becomes officially POTUS, I believe the markets will remain in bear territory. It's just my guess. Since, it seems we are waiting for another Fed hike.

 

[william the wie]

you could well be right.

 

[yiostheoy]

Check this out and then think again:

Dow Jones YTD Performance

 

[yiostheoy]

The 2016 low points in the Dow were 2/11/2016, 6/27/2016, and ironically 11/4/2016.

Currently the Dow is skyrocketing as never before with new records every day just like back in the Daze Of Reagan.

 

[william the wie]

This is certainly strange.

 

[anotherlife]

The Reagan Daze? I still can't figure out what that kink in the Dow curve is in the 1980's, and that hasn't corrected itself yet. Is it linked to the 401k/IRA laws? If yes, then I would predict a longer bear market. Anyone with an idea?

 

[william the wie]

The Reagan Daze? I still can't figure out what that kink in the Dow curve is in the 1980's, and that hasn't corrected itself yet. Is it linked to the 401k/IRA laws? If yes, then I would predict a longer bear market. Anyone with an idea?

I think you are going to be surprised at my answer, if your location is accurate. As federal income taxes (regulations) go down and out-sourcing tariffs go up to offset those cuts, state/local taxes (regulations) become a bigger factor in where economic activity happens. So, current internal migration of jobs and people is likely to go off the charts. NY, IL, CA, MA and RI are likely to go into Chapter three and cut the pensions of their retirees. Since those retirees have disproportionately moved out of state so their pensions will go further that brings in another branch of the Federal courts and the fun will really begin. Then more high tax states will hit that same road block and have major problems.

Also there are @ 100 million discouraged workers in the US. Having that many workers trying to reenter the labor market could easily drive UE into the double digits fast.

Either or both of these promised outcomes could get the Dow doing loop de loops.