Current Presidential polling in Virginia

[Statistikhengst]

VIRGINIA

VIRGINIA, on the presidential level, has been a reliably GOP state since 1952. That changed in 2008/2012.

At the current time, Hillary Clinton is ahead of the entire GOP field in the Old Dominion, and excepting matchups against Chris Christie, she is considerably ahead, much farther ahead than President Obama ever was in 2012 and for most of 2008.

First, some background on VIRGINIA, over a number of helpful links.

All presidential election results for VIRGINIA since 1856:

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/compare.php?year=2012&fips=51&f=1&off=0&elect=0&type=state

A electoral "bio" of VIRGINIA, from the end of 2011:

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: Rank 25 / 27: Virginia

(There is a link to a massive 2009 analysis of Virginia within that above „bio“, worth looking at)

2008 polling from VIRGINIA:

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: FINAL POLL CONVERGENCE, No. 12

(There were 74 VIRGINIA polls Obama / McCain in 2008)

2012 polling from VIRGINIA:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...0U3aFBuT09zQ2xXQ29fTjlJRlE&usp=sharing#gid=92

(There were 94 VIRGINIA polls Obama/Romney in 2012)

There were NINE polls of VIRGINIA in 2013, from various pollsters:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...UJqa3MyUm5VUTg0dlRzaHZtaEE&usp=sharing#gid=47

In terms of 2016 presidential matchups, Virginia was the most polled state of 2013. From those nine polls, there were 21 matchups, of which Clinton won 20 and there was one tie.

In the last 3 days, two more polls of Virginia came in, from two other pollsters who had not polled there in 2013, bringing the total Virgina polls to 11. Those new polls were from Christopher Newport University and Roanoke polling. Now, there have been 29 matchups and Hillary has won 28 of them.

Since there's no way to make a proper comparison but it would be helpful to see all of the values at once, and since tables are hard to load here, here are screenshots of the results.

Hillary vs. Christie and Paul:​

Hillary vs. Ryan, Cruz and Jeb Bush:​

Hillary vs. Rubio and McDonnell:​

Hillary vs. Huckabee and Walker​

For three candidates, you can see average margins, those are only from the who were polled in both the two most recent polls, from 3 and 2 days ago.


Here is also the most recent Virginia polling data that you just saw in those four screenshots, as an excel table in GoogleDocs:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ao6IyAPQ8DmmdDBFYk13T0NZMXlpS3M3REYwNldMQUE&usp=sharing

All polls are linked.

Why is this important?​

Well, it's important because VIRGINIA used used be a RED state where the Republican was comfortably ahead. From 1952-2004, Virginia was a 13-for-14 GOP state, LBJ's 1964 landslide being the exception. Jimmy Carter, a Southern Democrat, won all of the South in 1976 EXCEPT Virginia. Bill Clinton, a Southern Democrat, was unable to carry Virginia either time.

In 2008, that all changed: Obama won Virginia with a +6.30% margin. His margin in Virginia was closest to his national margin of +7.26%. In 2012, Obama retained Virginia for the Democratic column, with +3.87% margin. He won nationally by +3.86%. Those are, for all intents and purposes, identical margins. In fact, this is the only time in history where a state's margin was this unbelievably close to the national margin.

Statistically, Virginia has not only become a batteground in electoral politics, it is becoming a bellwether as well. Before 2008, from 1960-2004, the Virginia margin tended to be not anywhere close to the national margin. The Republican has tended to do far better in Virginia than he did nationally.

Hillary Clinton is doing considerably better in Virginia polling against all GOP candidates than Obama did.

Until May of 2008, McCain was ahead in most all Virginia polling. But go take a look at the margins. All but five of them were middle to low single digit margins. Obama had 3 double digit margins, McCain had two, the highest margin being +12. Here, excepting the race against Christie, we have seen Hillary with mostly double digit margins, and as high as +19 (against Cruz)

In 2012, it was pretty much low single digits all the way.

With other states, one could make the argument that „well, it's one poll or a couple of polls“, but in Virginia, we have now see 11 polls from 6 independent-from-each-other pollsters, all showing the same thing.

Some things to take away from the current polling data:

1.) Bridegate or no Bridgegate, Christie is still running well in Virginia.
2.) Ryan does marginally better than Paul.
3.) I have never seen so much early polling for one specific state in my life. Alone, the amount of Virginia 2016 prez polling is probably a record in and of itself.

About the pollsters:​

Well, in 2012, Roanoke's final poll showed Romney +6, so Roanoke missed Virginia by almost 10 points to the RIGHT. It is hardly a left-leaning pollster.

CNU: there was only one CNU poll in 2012, released on 10/20, more than 2 weeks before the election, showing Romney +3. But that is not a final poll and there is nothing to compare it to.

The other pollsters, the ones from 2013 (PPP, Quinnipiac, Purple Strategies) all have track records, which have been analyzed here:

Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: The moment of truth: how did the pollsters do?

The only pollster I have not yet analyzed is Harper (R) polling, because it is very new and just started polling about 7 months ago.


FACIT: The GOP is in serious trouble in at least three of the key battlegrounds looking toward 2016: Florida, Ohio and Virginia. But the Virginia polling is the most extensive. Those are the current numbers for the Old Dominion.

BTW, in my 2009 analysis of Virginia from the 2008 election, I wrote the following:

...in VIRGINIA, there was real resistance to Obama, but in counties that are „emptying out“, so to speak. We see a large poli-demographic shift in VA, with the north and the SE gaining greatly in political strength for the Democratic party. Here there were obviously far fewer GOP defections, if at all (McCain scored more raw votes in VA than Bush from 2004), but far more newly registered and Democratic dedicated voters. This poses a far larger problem for the GOP than either Indiana or Ohio, for Obama's +1.03% margin in Indiana can be overcome and Ohio is expected to be a battleground state is virtually every cycle, but the addition of more then 500,000 voters to the democratic rolls in just one cycle is much harder for the opposition to overcome. The best case scenario for the GOP is that Virginia becomes a bitter battleground state. However, +6.30% is hardly a battleground margin. It is a better margin that Obama scored in OHIO, FLORIDA, INDIANA and NORTH CAROLINA. It is a lean winning margin, but a comfortable one and will require a minimum 12.60% shift back in order for the GOP to regain the state, and I doubt that this shift will come from those 500,000 new voters. The worst case scenario for the GOP is that Obama cements Virginia into the democratic column in his first term, adding the state to core democratic territory and thus making the electoral math for the GOP more difficult.

Coming up next: Analysis of Rasmussen as a pollster, and Rasmussen's track record.

Spoiler: Today's mention list.

@cereal_killer [MENTION=18645]Sarah G[/MENTION] . [MENTION=45104]WelfareQueen[/MENTION] [MENTION=20412]JakeStarkey[/MENTION] [MENTION=20321]rightwinger[/MENTION] [MENTION=42916]Derideo_Te[/MENTION] [MENTION=41527]Pogo[/MENTION] [MENTION=40845]Jeremiah[/MENTION] [MENTION=11278]editec[/MENTION] [MENTION=3135]jillian[/MENTION] [MENTION=43625]Mertex[/MENTION] [MENTION=20704]Nosmo King[/MENTION] [MENTION=39530]AceRothstein[/MENTION] [MENTION=45104]WelfareQueen[/MENTION] [MENTION=25283]Sallow[/MENTION] [MENTION=40845]Jeremiah[/MENTION] [MENTION=45739]Jughead[/MENTION] [MENTION=20614]candycorn[/MENTION] [MENTION=21665]Dont Taz Me Bro[/MENTION] Grandma [MENTION=32163]Listening[/MENTION] [MENTION=40540]Connery[/MENTION]

A short list of people I thought would enjoy reading this data...

 

[HelenaHandbag]

The only numbers that interest me in this given topic are the ones I see on the calendar.

Today: March 6, 2014.

Election day: November 8, 2016.

978 days.

At this point, cramming numbers about who is going to win the 2016 World Series makes about as much sense.

 

[jillian]

The only numbers that interest me in this given topic are the ones I see on the calendar.

Today: March 6, 2014.

Election day: November 8, 2016.

978 days.

At this point, cramming numbers about who is going to win the 2016 World Series makes about as much sense.

this is a bit different since everyone knows the players and they don't get a win/loss record.

while it's only a snapshot, it does show that the GOP can't win with a wingnut field and should be very concerned about who it puts out there.

the right forgets they aren't representative of the country.

 

[martybegan]

The only numbers that interest me in this given topic are the ones I see on the calendar.

Today: March 6, 2014.

Election day: November 8, 2016.

978 days.

At this point, cramming numbers about who is going to win the 2016 World Series makes about as much sense.

this is a bit different since everyone knows the players and they don't get a win/loss record.

while it's only a snapshot, it does show that the GOP can't win with a wingnut field and should be very concerned about who it puts out there.

the right forgets they aren't representative of the country.

A hollow statement, a standard weasel phrase spouted by the left.

Try an excursion outside of the coasts and visit flyover country sometime.

 

[jillian]

The only numbers that interest me in this given topic are the ones I see on the calendar.

Today: March 6, 2014.

Election day: November 8, 2016.

978 days.

At this point, cramming numbers about who is going to win the 2016 World Series makes about as much sense.

this is a bit different since everyone knows the players and they don't get a win/loss record.

while it's only a snapshot, it does show that the GOP can't win with a wingnut field and should be very concerned about who it puts out there.

the right forgets they aren't representative of the country.

A hollow statement, a standard weasel phrase spouted by the left.

Try an excursion outside of the coasts and visit flyover country sometime.

thanks for the rightwing talking points.

if what you were spouting was true, you wouldn't keep losing national elections.

but please, put up a wingnut

we welcome it.... so we can laugh at you

and please, feel free to point out exactly what part of my statement was either "hollow" or not accurate.

 

[martybegan]

this is a bit different since everyone knows the players and they don't get a win/loss record.

while it's only a snapshot, it does show that the GOP can't win with a wingnut field and should be very concerned about who it puts out there.

the right forgets they aren't representative of the country.

A hollow statement, a standard weasel phrase spouted by the left.

Try an excursion outside of the coasts and visit flyover country sometime.

thanks for the rightwing talking points.

if what you were spouting was true, you wouldn't keep losing national elections.

but please, put up a wingnut

we welcome it.... so we can laugh at you

and please, feel free to point out exactly what part of my statement was either "hollow" or not accurate.

We keep losing elections because people are gullible enough to believe the progressives "something for nothing" and "hopey-changey" crap year after year.

It sucks being the adults of the political world, because people don't like to hear you can't get something from nothing, and government CANT give you everything it promises.

It also doesn't help you people lie all the fucking time, i.e "If you like your plan, you can keep your plan, period"

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Virginia is a competitive state now because the massive expansion of the federal government has brought more government employees into northern Virginia.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

this is a bit different since everyone knows the players and they don't get a win/loss record.

while it's only a snapshot, it does show that the GOP can't win with a wingnut field and should be very concerned about who it puts out there.

It doesn't show anything. We don't know who the players are right now all of this is based solely on name recognition. There is no way to predict what the mood of the electorate will be in 2016.

the right forgets they aren't representative of the country.

Jillian, none of you on the right or the left are representative of this country.

 

[martybegan]

Virginia is a competitive state now because the massive expansion of the federal government has brought more government employees into northern Virginia.

This is an impact as well. All those progressive twats would have to head back to flyover country if the Dems get thrown out of power.

 

[Statistikhengst]

The only numbers that interest me in this given topic are the ones I see on the calendar.

Today: March 6, 2014.

Election day: November 8, 2016.

978 days.

At this point, cramming numbers about who is going to win the 2016 World Series makes about as much sense.

this is a bit different since everyone knows the players and they don't get a win/loss record.

while it's only a snapshot, it does show that the GOP can't win with a wingnut field and should be very concerned about who it puts out there.

the right forgets they aren't representative of the country.

Not only that, as I have already written no a great number of polling threads, this now establishes a baseline with which to compare over the next 2 1/2 years.

Data is data and numbers tell their own story, completely independent of our ideological leanings.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Virginia is a competitive state now because the massive expansion of the federal government has brought more government employees into northern Virginia.

This is an impact as well. All those progressive twats would have to head back to flyover country if the Dems get thrown out of power.

Highly unlikely since the Republicans won't roll back any of the government growth. They love big government as much as the Dems as long as they get to control it.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Virginia is a competitive state now because the massive expansion of the federal government has brought more government employees into northern Virginia.

Yes, Taz, NOVA has grown extensively, this is true.

But it's not all just government jobs. Universities are growing in Nova, new industries are settling in VA, etc.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Virginia is a competitive state now because the massive expansion of the federal government has brought more government employees into northern Virginia.

This is an impact as well. All those progressive twats would have to head back to flyover country if the Dems get thrown out of power.

But the actual data in the OP, you cannot contest that data, now can you?

Believe me, GOP statisticians are looking at this data with the same watchful eyes as I am.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Hillary "Not Getting the Nomination" Clinton

 

[Statistikhengst]

The only numbers that interest me in this given topic are the ones I see on the calendar.

Today: March 6, 2014.

Election day: November 8, 2016.

978 days.

At this point, cramming numbers about who is going to win the 2016 World Series makes about as much sense.

That's your sentiment and I respect that.

But the fact remains that is is more than likely that Hillary Clinton is going to be the DEM nominee, and early polling is showing the numbers I have reported.

 

[HelenaHandbag]

Hillary "Not Getting the Nomination" Clinton

Hilary "What difference does it make?" Clinton.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Hillary "Not Getting the Nomination" Clinton

Hilary "What difference does it make?" Clinton.

Our top story tonight, Hillary Clinton will not get the Democrat Nomination

 

[Statistikhengst]

Chuckle, chuckle.

But that actual data in the OP you cannot contest.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Chuckle, chuckle.

But that actual data in the OP you cannot contest.

Sho'nuff and if I thought it was relevant I'd be concerned

 

[AceRothstein]

Virginia is a competitive state now because the massive expansion of the federal government has brought more government employees into northern Virginia.

Ummm, no.

https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-ove...ables/total-government-employment-since-1962/