Statistikhengst
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Kansas
KANSAS, on the presidential level, has been a extremely reliable GOP state for most all of it's electoral history.
At the current time, the GOP field is ahead of Hillary Clinton, but not by much (between +7 and +9).
First, some background on KANSAS, over a number of helpful links.
All presidential election results for KANSAS since 1864:
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/compare.php?year=2012&fips=20&f=1&off=0&elect=0&type=state
A electoral "bio" of KANSAS, from the end of 2011:
Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: Rank 40 / 11: Kansas
2008 polling from KANSAS:
Statistikhengst's ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond: FINAL POLL CONVERGENCE, No. 12
(There were 24 Kansas polls Obama / McCain in 2008)
2012 polling from KANSAS:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...0U3aFBuT09zQ2xXQ29fTjlJRlE&usp=sharing#gid=32
(There was only one poll of Kansas in the year 2012)
There was only one poll of Kansas in 2013, from PPP (D):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...UJqa3MyUm5VUTg0dlRzaHZtaEE&usp=sharing#gid=17
Last week, on February 24th, a second PPP (D) poll of Kansas came out. The two Kansas polls are almost a year apart from each other, nonetheless, I will put the older values in parentheses. You will notice that there is no overlap between these two polls:
Clinton N/A (42)
Rubio N/A (47)
Margin: N/A (Rubio +5)
Clinton 39 (N/A)
Christie 46 (N/A)
Margin: Christie +7 (N/A)
Clinton 41 (N/A)
Paul 48 (N/A)
Margin: Paul +7 (N/A)
Clinton N/A (43)
Ryan N/A (50)
Margin: N/A (Ryan +7)
Clinton 42 (N/A)
Huckabee 49 (N/A)
Margin: Huckabee +7 (N/A)
Clinton 41 (N/A)
Bush, J. 50 (N/A)
Margin: Bush, J. +9 (N/A)
Since there is no overlap between the 2014 and the 2013 poll, there is no reason to compare margins between the old poll and the new one, and granted, a lot of time has passed, but we see a common margin of +7 for a GOP candidate alot: for Christie, Paul, Ryan and Huckabee.
As happened in Louisiana, it appears that Jeb Bush is profiting from Chris Christie's fall since Bridgegate.
Just to compare, Clinton was polled against the Republican field in Kansas in late 2007, before the DEM primaries of 2008:
Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #13105
In that poll, McCain beat her by 23, Huckabee beat her by 14, Giuliani beat her by 11, Romney beat her by 7. In that poll, Obama performed similarly, but did much better against Romney.
Why is that important?
Well, it's important because Kansas is supposed be a R +20 state AT LEAST, and I can prove it.
Here the Kansas margins in the last 12 cycles where the Republican won the national election as well:
1968: Nixon +20.13% (he won nationally by only +0.70%). His Kansas margin was 19.43% OVER his national margin.
1972: Nixon +38.15% (he won nationally by +23.15%). His Kansas margin was 15.00% OVER his national margin.
1980: Reagan +24.56% (he won nationally by +9.74%). His Kansas margin was 14.82% OVER his national margin.
1984: Reagan +33.67% (he won nationally by +18.22%). His Kansas margin was +15.45% OVER his national margin.
1988: Bush 41 +13.23% (he won nationally by +7.73%). His Kansas margin was 5.50% OVER his national margin.
2000: Bush 43 +20.80% (Gore won nationally by +0.52%). Bush 43's Kansas margin was 21.32% better than HIS national average.
2004: Bush 43 +25.38% (he won nationally by +2.46%). His Kansas margin 22.92% OVER his national margin.
In 6 of these seven elections, the Republican won Kansas with +20 or more.
WE also see that, on the average, a Republican who has won the White House has generally done between 15-20 points better in Kansas than nationally. This is how secure that state is. It is an absolute GOP bastion. The only Republican who won the national election in the last 46 years who won Kansas with less than +20 was Bush 41, but an unknown secret of that election is that Dukakis (D), though he lost in grand fashion, performed in the Breadbasket far better than one expected.
Now, let's see how KANSAS performed when a Democrat has won nationally:
1976: Ford +7.55% (and that was with Bob Dole of Kansas on the ticket - while Carter won nationally by +2.06%). Ford's Kansas margin was 9.61% better than HIS national margin.
1992: Bush 41 +5.14% (Clinton won nationally by +5.56%). Bush 41's Kansas margin was 10.70% better than HIS national margin.
1996: Dole +18.21% (Clinton won nationally by +8.52%). Dole's Kansas margin was 26.73% better than HIS national margin.
2008: McCain +14.92% (Obama won nationally by +7.26%). McCain's Kansas margin was 22.18% better than HIS national average.
2012: Romney +21.61% (Obama won nationally by +3.86%). Romney's Kansas margin was 25.47% better than HIS national average. Kansas pulled especially strongly for Romney in 2012.
So, we see that in 4 of 5 elections where the Democrat won nationally, the Republican won Kansas with less than +20. This is all part of the principle of "a rising tide lifts all boats".
So, for Hillary Clinton to be at only -6 to -9 against prospective GOP candidates is a bad sign for the GOP.
Do I think Hillary can win Kansas? No. Whoever is the GOP nominee is going to win this state.
The last time a Democrat won here was LBJ, in 1964, and in order to pull Kansas +9.01% across the line into the Democratic column, it took a +22.58% national win to do it. Extrapolating that out, knowing that this state can go as far as 25 points against a Democratic national margin (see above), just to really have a shot that this state, Hillary would have to be at or above +18 in national polling, and that is not going to happen.
But again, if these kind of margins hold in Kansas, then that is bad news for the GOP. Caveat: these are only two polls and we have a long way to go.
Looking back at 2008 again, of those 24 Obama Kansas polls, he was behind McCain in single digits in only three of those 24, and that was early on. In most of the polls, McCain was ahead by between +17 and +20. So, it is very likely that the GOP margins here will increase. In fact, I am expecting that they will. But Hillary should never be at +6 behind ANY Republican in Kansas, ever.
There is one more reason why I like to take the pulse of Kansas. When SUSA (SurveyUSA) does national polling on hot-button issues, it usually polls three specific states, one Liberal, one Conservative and one that is very "tossupy": California, Kansas and Florida.
FACIT: it's just a couple of polls thus far, but a baseline is now established. The GOP is going to win this state in 2016, but the margins (as in Louisiana, as in Kentucky) will surely be indicative of who is winning on the national front. Electoral history proves this immediately.
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