Balance of Powers?

[eagleseven]

Analyzing world international relations, it appears that several power blocs are forming. Here is my hypothesis of the international blocs that will dominate the international scene for next decade or so, in order of relative power.


Indian-American Alliance:
USA, India, South Korea, Japan, Iraq

Chinese Empire:
China, North Korea, Myanmar, Vietnam, Pakistan, and several African states

New Russian Federation:
Russia, Ukraine, Iran, Indonesia, and old soviet states

South Atlantic Treaty Organization:
Brazil, Venezuela, Libya, Nigeria, Egypt, South Africa, and several other African states


I leave out the European Union for two reasons; first, I strongly suspect that the European Union will not last for another decade, and second, the largest European powers are far too isolationist to be considered a bloc.

How have I settled upon these blocs? First, the first country in every bloc are currently producing aircraft carriers. Aircraft carriers have one purpose: force projection. Second, by military expenditures and relative sizes...this new world will be defined by hard power and hard negotiations. Third, each bloc will have advanced nuclear weapons capabilities by the end of decade.

Last, these alliances are based upon current treaties, armament sales/treaties, and the relations between individual nations. Of course, it is only a hypothesis.

 

[xotoxi]

What about Canada, eh?

 

[mal]

What about Canada, eh?

Those Flappy-Headed Sons-of-Bitches can Rot and Die!... Fuck 'em!



peace...

 

[Amzi]

Your SATO group just seems like the 'oddball' group is spelling class instead of a formal alliance. Also, I would be pretty surprised to see India formally ally itself with any group that is not its own.

 

[eagleseven]

Your SATO group just seems like the 'oddball' group is spelling class instead of a formal alliance. Also, I would be pretty surprised to see India formally ally itself with any group that is not its own.

Venezuela/iran: South Atlantic Treaty Organization | WAIS

Will it come together? Who knows...

 

[Amzi]

Pariah Alliance FTW! But seriously Egypt and South Africa would not risk their relations with the rest for a mutual defense treaty with Venezuela, Libya and other Pariahs.

 

[Modbert]

South America would be interesting if they had some sort of alliance but some of them are too different for it to stay together.

Same problem that is being posed now for the European Union.

 

[Amzi]

I think UNASUR, continental free trade and a common currency in the next 20 years will be as far as a South American alliance goes.

Exactly. If the EU can somehow (Though some countries don't even want to) project a single interest, specifically in the field of foreign policy, they would be very powerful.... but they can't.

 

[Baruch Menachem]

Aircraft carriers are only useful if you can leave the forces alone. For Russia and China, aircraft carriers will only be pretty toys that will be kept under very short leashes.

 

[Amzi]

I think China's carriers will be more influencial than Russia's- at least they could intervene in some African nations (ie. Sudan being the main one) Russia really has no where else to go... no stomping ground other than the CIS nations and Caucuses/Clack Sea for which you don't need a carrier to dominate.

 

[Baruch Menachem]

why would they bother?

 

[Amzi]

why would they bother?

I agree that China is much, much less interventionist than one would expect, but if they had the means (ie. A carrier battlegroup) why would they not use it on areas that are already their tradational stomping grounds? I am sure they wouldn't go out on risky ventures around places like Guam and the Gulf (Perhaps...) but I think they would inforce already established spheres of influence.

Fun fact, China actually did buy an old Soviet carrier..... but turned it into a floating casino. But I believe they are refurbishing it now? And some are in the R&D stage.

 

[Hugidwyn]

Newspaper Times of India wrote about the plan of development and external economic relations of Russia in the coming decade, which has developed Putin.

The plan stresses the need for an alliance with China and India and the importance of this strategic shift in Russia's foreign policy because of the inevitable recession that plunged into the West.

Russia is a strategic ally of China. The Chinese say that Russia has acted correctly in the Caucasus in 2008.

India together with Russia is building a medium-range missiles, participates in the development of fifth generation fighter, buys Russia aircraft carrier.

South Korea and Japan do not have the military force. Iraq - after the departure of Americans turn away from America.

Americans will remain in isolation.

 

[Amzi]

Doubt it. Foreign Intervention is a lynch pin in our foreign relations and securing our and the world's interests both home and abroad.

There is also very little chance that Russia India and China will ever be able to come together in a formal allian e that threatens NATO or the U.S alone. They have different interests and it's very hard to project different interests of three different super powers with three very different militaries- specifically China and India.

 

[Hugidwyn]

Doubt it. Foreign Intervention is a lynch pin in our foreign relations and securing our and the world's interests both home and abroad.

There is also very little chance that Russia India and China will ever be able to come together in a formal allian e that threatens NATO or the U.S alone. They have different interests and it's very hard to project different interests of three different super powers with three very different militaries- specifically China and India.

Relations between China and India, better than ever over the past forty years.
There have been shifts in the settlement of territorial disputes, where the differences were particularly acute. China recognized affiliation to one of India's border territories that refused to do for years. Several years ago during a visit to China, Prime Minister of India, relations between the two countries were characterized by such phrases as "strategic partnership"
If we talk about a possible triangle Moscow-Beijing-Delhi, then Russia is waiting patiently, when relations between Delhi and Beijing will improve to such an extent as to realize this idea.
Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which initially was conceived as Russia-China axis, but later found and others wishing to join the organization, including India. That is, India wants to sit at a table with Russia and China.

 

[Granny]

If the UN is any indication of how all this One World Order and alliances would function, the world would be better off for all nations to take care business at home. With all the corruption, disagreement, in-fighting, unresolved problems, etc. the UN should just be abolished.

Since it's inception exactly what has the UN accomplished in the way of unifying all the nations into one big, happy, peaceful Utopia? Not a damned thing.

 

[eagleseven]

why would they bother?

China needs Africa's resources, and has partnerships with plenty of African countries:

 

[eagleseven]

Relations between China and India, better than ever over the past forty years.

Indian Army raising two divisions close to China border - dnaindia.com

News Analysis - China Intensifies Tug of War With India on Nepal - NYTimes.com

 

[eagleseven]

If the UN is any indication of how all this One World Order and alliances would function, the world would be better off for all nations to take care business at home. With all the corruption, disagreement, in-fighting, unresolved problems, etc. the UN should just be abolished.

Since it's inception exactly what has the UN accomplished in the way of unifying all the nations into one big, happy, peaceful Utopia? Not a damned thing.

The UN isn't involved in this new paradigm. Try reading the OP before you comment.

 

[Hugidwyn]

As for the India-China relations, until recently, they were very strained. This was due, above all, a number of unresolved issues, many decades of dead weight hanging on the shoulders of politicians in both countries.
Thus, in particular, the question of the common border length of about 2000 thousand kilometers and the issue of disputed territories of approximately 125 sq. km and this view is absolutely non-confrontational "nature" of India.
The turn, led to a rapprochement between the two countries took place after September 11 when it was learned that representatives of the Pakistani intelligence supported the Taliban in Afghanistan and turned a blind eye to the activities of Islamic fundamentalists who infiltrated from northern Pakistan to commit acts in the Chinese Xinjiang and Indian-administered Kashmir. After these messages Beijing has decided to pay more attention to India.
Now China has a positive attitude towards its aspiration of SCO, has good relations with a country-neighbor and, increasingly, developing new joint projects.
Western politicians and experts are concerned with emerging alliance: what could have happened to two competing countries with a considerable number of contentious issues for the tiny historical time had become a sworn enemies in close partners.
The answer, as always, is simple. The West has never been able to comprehend fully all the subtleties of Eastern politics and blame it, of course, a different mentality.
China and India - two countries that have much in common politically. Both countries fear the growth of Islamic terrorism, but in India and China, home to a large Muslim communities and both seek to avoid a religious war with Muslims. In domestic policy, they also hold similar positions. Both countries are also following with interest the growth of each other.

Alliance of Russia - China - India if he has any future?
United Russia - China - India could potentially have a much more weighty than the military, political and economic influence, and his voice with a high degree of probability can be decisive in many geopolitical issues and disputes.