Looks like there is a legitimate deal. I had thought that this was all just Trump trying to save face with the claim that Pakistan was trying to broker a deal, but looks like it was all real after all, with Vance heavily involved.
Officials in the U.S. and Israel learned of an intriguing development on Monday, with President Trump's ultimatum looming: Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei had instructed his negotiators, for the first time since the war began, to move towards a deal, according to an Israeli official, a regional official and a third source with knowledge.
The big picture: As Trump was publicly threatening total annihilation, there were signs of diplomatic momentum behind the scenes — though even sources close to Trump didn't know which outcome to expect right up until a ceasefire was announced.
Setting the scene: On Monday morning, as Trump worked the crowd at a White House Easter celebration, a "very angry" Steve Witkoff was working the phones.
- U.S. forces in the Middle East and officials in the Pentagon spent those closing hours preparing for a massive bombing campaign on Iranian infrastructure, and trying to figure out where Trump was leaning. "We had no idea what was going to happen. It was wild," a defense official said.
- Allies in the region were bracing for Iranian retaliation on an unprecedented scale. Inside Iran, some civilians were fleeing their homes in an attempt to avoid the brunt of the strikes.
- This account of the diplomacy that staved off that escalation, for now, is based on conversations with eleven sources with knowledge of the talks.
- The U.S. envoy told the mediators the 10-point counter-proposal the U.S. had just received from Iran was "a disaster, a catastrophe," a source with direct knowledge said.
- That began a "chaotic" day of amendments, with the Pakistani mediators passing new drafts between Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, and the Egyptian and Turkish foreign ministers trying to help bridge gaps.
- By Monday night, the mediators had U.S. approval for an updated proposal for a two-week ceasefire. It was then up to Khamenei — whom the sources said was actively involved in the process on Monday and Tuesday — to make a decision.