I was shocked, more with Best Director than Best Picture. Sure, it's made a fuckload of cash, but the backlash for the lack of an original story has been pretty strong. I really thought Kathryn Bigelow would win Best Director, even if Avatar won Best Picture. But when Cameron won Best Director, I knew Avatar was a lock for Best Picture. And if it can win here, it can easily win at the Oscars. It likely won't win Best Score or Best Original Song, because both of those are lacking. It will easily win the technical awards, obviously. I doubt it gets any actor nominations, unless Zoe gets a well deserved Best Actress nomination. It won't be nominated for Best Original Screenplay. But it should easily get Best Director and Best Picture at this point.