Are we facing another big polling miss? Probably

[DigitalDrifter]

Interesting to say the least.

"The odds that many of the current public polls are undercounting Republican support are pretty high."



Over the years, several theories have been offered on why this has occurred, ranging from non-response issues, i.e., shy Trump/Republican voters, problems with likely voter models, and a lack of polling respondents without a college degree. The American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) released their “Task Force on 2020 Pre-Election Polling: An Evaluation of the 2020 General Election Polls” and could not determine why public polling, on average, favored democratic candidates by 4 to 5 points in 2020.

MSN

 

[rightwinger]

Interesting to say the least.

"The odds that many of the current public polls are undercounting Republican support are pretty high."



Over the years, several theories have been offered on why this has occurred, ranging from non-response issues, i.e., shy Trump/Republican voters, problems with likely voter models, and a lack of polling respondents without a college degree. The American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) released their “Task Force on 2020 Pre-Election Polling: An Evaluation of the 2020 General Election Polls” and could not determine why public polling, on average, favored democratic candidates by 4 to 5 points in 2020.

MSN

I think Republicans are more likely to tell poll takers to go Fuk themselves

 

[Hang on Sloopy]

Interesting to say the least.

"The odds that many of the current public polls are undercounting Republican support are pretty high."



Over the years, several theories have been offered on why this has occurred, ranging from non-response issues, i.e., shy Trump/Republican voters, problems with likely voter models, and a lack of polling respondents without a college degree. The American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) released their “Task Force on 2020 Pre-Election Polling: An Evaluation of the 2020 General Election Polls” and could not determine why public polling, on average, favored democratic candidates by 4 to 5 points in 2020.

MSN

Well no shit......lololol

The poll sticking out of Hillary's rectum is the only one I trusted

 

[kyzr]

There are many Trump supporters who prefer to keep their vote classified to avoid repercussions.
union workers
government workers
urban plantation dwellers
women
school teachers

I'm sure they would tell pollsters they are voting democrat

 

[kyzr]

I think Republicans are more likely to tell poll takers to go Fuk themselves

We're classier than that. We don't pick up the phone, or reply to their emails.

 

[mamooth]

The Democrats keep doing better than expected in recent elections.

It currently looks as if it's Democratic support that's being undercounted.

 

[Matt National]

It's the midterms. The congress often overturns to the opposition party except in rare instances. Even if Biden was having a successful Presidency, which he is not, his Democrats would be facing a loss. Given Biden is having an exceptionally bad Presidency it's more than likely the right blows them out of the water in November. I find the polling that paints a different picture to be suspicious.

 

[Mac1958]

I’d just assume the GQP is under-represented by three to five percent in any given poll.

 

[ozro]

Polls, the polls announced to the masses anyway, are simply a political weapon to be used against those that commission or perform the poll deems as "the enemy".
Plenty of candidates for office as well as office-holders employ their own pollsters to provide them with actual accurate information. Very rarely is that type of poll released to the public.

 

[Darkwind]

This is the pollsters gaslighting the American people into thinking that the Democrats are surging. All in the hopes that the right will stay home and give up on that basis.

It's just the psyops of the media.

 

[Dekster]

Interesting to say the least.

"The odds that many of the current public polls are undercounting Republican support are pretty high."



Over the years, several theories have been offered on why this has occurred, ranging from non-response issues, i.e., shy Trump/Republican voters, problems with likely voter models, and a lack of polling respondents without a college degree. The American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) released their “Task Force on 2020 Pre-Election Polling: An Evaluation of the 2020 General Election Polls” and could not determine why public polling, on average, favored democratic candidates by 4 to 5 points in 2020.

MSN

Well if that helps keep the morale up as the GOP slides off the cliff, go right ahead. However, the GOP has not been living up to their polling come election day this year (which is usually the DNC's M/O) and even when they are winning, they are underperforming their polling and prior election results in swingy places.

 

[busybee01]

Interesting to say the least.

"The odds that many of the current public polls are undercounting Republican support are pretty high."



Over the years, several theories have been offered on why this has occurred, ranging from non-response issues, i.e., shy Trump/Republican voters, problems with likely voter models, and a lack of polling respondents without a college degree. The American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) released their “Task Force on 2020 Pre-Election Polling: An Evaluation of the 2020 General Election Polls” and could not determine why public polling, on average, favored democratic candidates by 4 to 5 points in 2020.

MSN

If there is a polling miss, it is likely to oversample Republicans. Democrats have overperformed in recent special elections. Then you had a 16 point loss in deep red Kansas for a anti-abortion amendment. All signs point to a much higher than normal midterm turnout. A high turnout hurts Republicans.

 

[busybee01]

It's the midterms. The congress often overturns to the opposition party except in rare instances. Even if Biden was having a successful Presidency, which he is not, his Democrats would be facing a loss. Given Biden is having an exceptionally bad Presidency it's more than likely the right blows them out of the water in November. I find the polling that paints a different picture to be suspicious.

The reason that midterms tend to favor the party out of power is because the party out of power is more likely to turn out. When you look at the special elections, turnout has been much higher for Democrats. The polls clearly show that abortion is a major issue and that spells disaster for Republicans. That is why Michigan Republicans attempted to prevent a vote on a pro-choice referendum.

 

[busybee01]

This is the pollsters gaslighting the American people into thinking that the Democrats are surging. All in the hopes that the right will stay home and give up on that basis.

It's just the psyops of the media.

Democrats have picked up 2 House seats so far this year.

 

[1srelluc]

Meh, the MSM is juggling so many dem Big Lies right now it's a wonder that they can keep all up in the air.....Their crash to earth will be glorious.

 

[Matt National]

The reason that midterms tend to favor the party out of power is because the party out of power is more likely to turn out. When you look at the special elections, turnout has been much higher for Democrats. The polls clearly show that abortion is a major issue and that spells disaster for Republicans. That is why Michigan Republicans attempted to prevent a vote on a pro-choice referendum.

I think the Democrats vastly overestimate the abortion issue. It's not like abortion has gone away. They can still shop for their life ending services in blue states and thanks to the constitution we can travel freely through any state we wish! Abortion is not going to save the Democrats. What's that phrase Carville used a few decades ago? "It's the economy, stupid". What's going to bring people out are the food costs, the gas costs, the energy costs, etc. The abortion debate won't affect most Americans but the economy affects every single one of us and drains our wallets. I have no doubt the Independents and the Right will show up in force. The Democrats? Not sure about their turn out. Either way, Abortion is not the winning ticket for the left. It's all they have though so they'll use it.

Thank you, btw, you just decided my Wednesday blog article subject. This is a good topic.

 

[DigitalDrifter]

Months ago, the Dims were looking at a huge midterm loss, possibly historic. Then came Roe being struck down, gas prices easing, and Joe out on the campaign trail, finally being able to put a sentence together. The GOP could still take the House, but it's definitely not looking the way it did six months ago.

 

[rightwinger]

Months ago, the Dims were looking at a huge midterm loss, possibly historic. Then came Roe being struck down, gas prices easing, and Joe out on the campaign trail, finally being able to put a sentence together. The GOP could still take the House, but it's definitely not looking the way it did six months ago.

Given Gerrymandering, the Republicans should take the House with about 10 seats to spare
The Senate looks close with the tie going to the Democrats

Still two months to go, a lot can change

 

[DigitalDrifter]

Maybe this new report, hot off the press, will get American's attention.

MSN

 

[DigitalDrifter]

• Gas: 25.6%
• Airline fares: 33.4%
• Electricity: 15.8%
• Food at home: 13.5%
• New vehicles: 10.1%
• Food away from home: 8%
• Used cars and trucks: 7.8%
• Shelter: 6.2%
• Medical care services: 5.6%
• Apparel: 5.1%