Full Startfor Report as PDF:
http://www.investorsiraq.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=4961&d=1200151440
Of course i only post things of my special interest.
Turkey — now the strongest it has been in a century — will re-emerge as a major geopolitical weight in the eastern Mediterranean, albeit one that is somewhat confused about its priorities.
Largely separate from the ongoing Iraqi drama a new power will arise — or, more accurately, an old power will re-arise. For nearly the past century Turkish power in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean has been quiescent as the Cold War has dictated Ankara’s security parameters. But since the Cold War’s end the Balkans have evolved violently, Russia has retreated and now is resurging into the Caucasus and Central Asia, the Arab world has witnessed a huge influx of American power, Iran is seeking to expand its sphere of influence and Iraq has collapsed. In the center of this storm of activity, Turkey has strengthened its military and economy and achieved a degree of political coherence it has not known in decades. For the first time since the end of World War I, Turkey has the
need to be involved in its immediate neighborhood independent of its alliance structure and the means to be involved decisively. Yet none of the challenges and opportunities clamoring for Turkey’s attention is mission critical; all could be ignored. What Ankara lacks is a direction to focus its efforts. The year 2008 will be about Turkey selecting that direction — specifically, deciding whether its chosen goals can be pursued within the structure of alliance with NATO and the United States. Turkey’s full force will not be brought to bear — and its impact upon the alliance not felt — until at least 2009.
http://www.investorsiraq.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=4961&d=1200151440
Of course i only post things of my special interest.
Turkey — now the strongest it has been in a century — will re-emerge as a major geopolitical weight in the eastern Mediterranean, albeit one that is somewhat confused about its priorities.
Largely separate from the ongoing Iraqi drama a new power will arise — or, more accurately, an old power will re-arise. For nearly the past century Turkish power in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean has been quiescent as the Cold War has dictated Ankara’s security parameters. But since the Cold War’s end the Balkans have evolved violently, Russia has retreated and now is resurging into the Caucasus and Central Asia, the Arab world has witnessed a huge influx of American power, Iran is seeking to expand its sphere of influence and Iraq has collapsed. In the center of this storm of activity, Turkey has strengthened its military and economy and achieved a degree of political coherence it has not known in decades. For the first time since the end of World War I, Turkey has the
need to be involved in its immediate neighborhood independent of its alliance structure and the means to be involved decisively. Yet none of the challenges and opportunities clamoring for Turkey’s attention is mission critical; all could be ignored. What Ankara lacks is a direction to focus its efforts. The year 2008 will be about Turkey selecting that direction — specifically, deciding whether its chosen goals can be pursued within the structure of alliance with NATO and the United States. Turkey’s full force will not be brought to bear — and its impact upon the alliance not felt — until at least 2009.
