3.5% of PA is Puerto Rican... uh oh

[Rogue AI]

Trump didn't say it. But it was at HIS SHOW.

If he can't control what a comedian says at his rally, how can he run the damn country?

And has he come out and said "the comedian's an asshole, he shouldn't have said it"? NO

Did he say anything again the North Carolina governor candidate who he supported? NO

That's Trump.

So the people booing Harris because Beyonce didn't sing was Harris' fault after all. Glad that's cleared up.

 

[para bellum]

And that 0.5% and 0.3% is 34,000 and 20,000 people.

Puerto Ricans make up 500,000 people. That's 6.8% and 4% of the Puerto Rican population. Of course there won't be that many voters... but still...

Statistically the polls are a tie- none of them are better than +/-2 pts. 270towin is the only aggregator that leans Harris, and only because they drop 2 polls. (btw you can reduce your numbers by 20% because 100% of registered voters will not turnout)

More interesting to me about PA is the fact that there are about 1 million fewer mail-in ballots requested than there were in 2020, and 800K of that decline comes from democrat voters. That's a lot, considering Biden's margin in 2020.

I do not think a bad joke from a comedian will make the slightest impact. People are voting their pocketbooks.

 

[frigidweirdo]

Statistically the polls are a tie- none of them are better than +/-2 pts. 270towin is the only aggregator that leans Harris, and only because they drop 2 polls. (btw you can reduce your numbers by 20% because 100% of registered voters will not turnout)

More interesting to me about PA is the fact that there are about 1 million fewer mail-in ballots requested than there were in 2020, and 800K of that decline comes from democrat voters. That's a lot, considering Biden's margin in 2020.

I do not think a bad joke from a comedian will make the slightest impact. People are voting their pocketbooks.

I think people are voting based on emotion, they mostly don't have a clue what's going on. People will vote negatively for the most part, create a reason....

Biden's economy is good, Trump's was good, both had problems.

 

[tahuyaman]

So a random comedian made a joke that didn’t go well for him. Who thinks that’s going to impact who some people vote the? Idiots?

 

[Mister Iggy]

Great post, the sort of post you expect from a Trump supporter, full of substance, links to facts etc etc

What on earth do you want? It’s like you are dry humping my leg. No one gives a shit that a comedian offended some people, it wont make any impact on election results.

 

[para bellum]

I think people are voting based on emotion, they mostly don't have a clue what's going on. People will vote negatively for the most part, create a reason....

Biden's economy is good, Trump's was good, both had problems.

I do not doubt that Puerto Ricans are offended by the joke, but as a voting block they go about 70% dem anyway.

So you're talking about some percentage of the minority of PR voters that might flip to Harris over the joke, I have a hard time seeing that as significant enough to swing the election...

 

[frigidweirdo]

What on earth do you want? It’s like you are dry humping my leg. No one gives a shit that a comedian offended some people, it wont make any impact on election results.

Do you really want to know what I want?

I want people who come on forums to discuss politics to have at least a clue of what's going on and the ability to formulate an argument.

 

[frigidweirdo]

I do not doubt that Puerto Ricans are offended by the joke, but as a voting block they go about 70% dem anyway.

So you're talking about some percentage of the minority of PR voters that might flip to Harris over the joke, I have a hard time seeing that as significant enough to swing the election...

Maybe, maybe not.

People don't like being insulted though. Look what happened when Hillary insulted Trump supporters. They'd listened to the whole of Trump's insulting act for a year or more, and then Hillary makes one insult and they go ape shit.

 

[Arlette]

Statistically the polls are a tie- none of them are better than +/-2 pts. 270towin is the only aggregator that leans Harris, and only because they drop 2 polls. (btw you can reduce your numbers by 20% because 100% of registered voters will not turnout)

More interesting to me about PA is the fact that there are about 1 million fewer mail-in ballots requested than there were in 2020, and 800K of that decline comes from democrat voters. That's a lot, considering Biden's margin in 2020.

I do not think a bad joke from a comedian will make the slightest impact. People are voting their pocketbooks.

If people are voting their pocketbook the tariff man is fucked.

 

[Mister Iggy]

Do you really want to know what I want?

I want people who come on forums to discuss politics to have at least a clue of what's going on and the ability to formulate an argument.

Thats rich coming from you. The issue with you is it just goes round and round in circles, and it’s very similar with other anti trumpers. It is tiresome dealing with your emotional demands.

If you want discussion, stop acting like a little girl.

 

[Cellblock2429]

MSN

"Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro responded to Hinchcliffe’s comments during an appearance on WILK Newsradio Monday morning, saying there are nearly half a million Puerto Ricans living in Pennsylvania." (This is 3.8%)

" The Pew Research Center says Pennsylvania has the fourth-highest Puerto Rican population in the United States which makes up about 8% of the state’s population." (this might be Hispanics, wikipedia says it's 8% Hispanic)

2020 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

69% of Hispanics voted Biden, 29% voted Trump in 2020.

That made up 5% of the vote. Trump lost the state by 1.2%

Trump has been ahead in the polling in PA 0.2% to 0.5% until Kamala came out ahead by 0.3% in the latest one, which puts Trump head in general.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_States_presidential_election#Pennsylvania

If he loses 29% of 5% that's 1.45%

He probably wouldn't lose all of the Hispanic vote, if he lost 29% of the 3.5%, that's 17,500 votes, that could be a tipping point. The number of supporters from Puerto Rico was probably higher than this as Trump was polling way above his 2020 figures.

/—-/ Puerto Ricans can’t vote in US elections. Mexicans hate Puerto Ricans. They call them lazy.

 

[para bellum]

Maybe, maybe not.

People don't like being insulted though. Look what happened when Hillary insulted Trump supporters. They'd listened to the whole of Trump's insulting act for a year or more, and then Hillary makes one insult and they go ape shit.

Hillary's comment didn't change the way anyone voted, and the comment by the comedian wasn't from Trump.

Biden won latinos 60-37, Harris is sitting at 52-42 according to Cook's Political report. What's the worst that can happen? She matches Biden's percentage?

Most hispanics are not Puerto Ricans- the number one issue for hispanics is the economy, and immigration is always in the top 3...

 

[para bellum]

If people are voting their pocketbook the tariff man is fucked.

You are out of touch. The polling on that issue is not ambiguous in any way.

 

[excalibur]

Are people implying Puerto Ricans are so thin skinned and shallow that some comedian's joke supercedes all issues for the next four years? Wow.

There's a reason more Puerto Ricans live in the USA than live in Puerto Rico, they know what a dump their island is.

 

[frigidweirdo]

Thats rich coming from you. The issue with you is it just goes round and round in circles, and it’s very similar with other anti trumpers. It is tiresome dealing with your emotional demands.

If you want discussion, stop acting like a little girl.

There were go, another pointless post. Not even discussing the topic.

Bye.

 

[frigidweirdo]

Hillary's comment didn't change the way anyone voted, and the comment by the comedian wasn't from Trump.

Biden won latinos 60-37, Harris is sitting at 52-42 according to Cook's Political report. What's the worst that can happen? She matches Biden's percentage?

Most hispanics are not Puerto Ricans- the number one issue for hispanics is the economy, and immigration is always in the top 3...

Probably not, as she was attacking people who were already going to vote for Trump. The point being that people do actually take such things seriously.

People's views of politicians is more like voting for a popular person, than a person who can run the country well. Trump just tells them his term in office was great, and most people have forgotten. They look at Biden and see some problems, and that's what's in their heads. Emotions.

The thing with this election is that it's not about what the country think. It's about what a few thousand people in a few swing states think. That can make all the difference.

There were 74 electoral college votes between Trump and Biden. That means 38 EC votes going to Trump would have won him the election.

PA has 20, GA 16, WI 10 and AZ 11

There's 57 votes there. Even without one of the three later states, he'd still have won.

That was 80,000, 11,000, 20,000 and 10,000 votes. A swing of 41,000 in PA, 5,500 in GA, 10,000 in WI and 5,000 in AZ would have changed the outcome.

What were those few people, in a huge country, doing to make them change their minds? Because these were swing voters, people who voted for Trump in 2016, voted Biden in 2020. What changed? Could have been anything.

 

[para bellum]

What changed? Could have been anything.

Eh? What changed? Seriously?

 

[frigidweirdo]

Eh? What changed? Seriously?

You're asking what changes in people's heads?

What changed between 2016 and 2020 for people to change their vote?

In Germany they vote two different systems on the same day, and up to 10% of people change their vote. What changed?

 

[Mister Iggy]

There were go, another pointless post. Not even discussing the topic.

Bye.

 

[Rogue AI]

Eh? What changed? Seriously?

Covid fearmongering and the demonization of Trump's handling of Covid are now absent. That Biden's handling of it was worse is now forgotten.