Statistikhengst
Diamond Member
- Banned
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http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2014/2014pdates.pdf
This is directly from the FEC and was just updated yesterday.
Doesn't matter if you are a Democrat, Republican or Independent. If you are interested in elections, then this information will be helpful for you.
It's a pretty handy document: it might be worth your while to download it. But, being in alphabetical order, it gives you no idea of how this all shapes up chronologically, so I made a chronological table:
You might find this table very, very helpful in keeping up with what will be coming next.
The states marked in bold and in purple are states where Senate seats will be decided in November. There are 33 normal Senate seats up for election, plus TWO special Senate elections, in HI and in OK. This means that both Senate seats in OK will be up for election in November. That makes for 34 states with 35 total Senate seats up for election.
The states marked with an asterisk are states where Gubernatorial seats will be decided in November. There are a whopping 39 Gubernatorial seats up for election. I bet that not many know that in the terroritories, there are also gubernatorial races and their parties are aligned with the mainland parties. The current Governors of Guam, The Virgin Islands and the Mariana Islands are a Republican, a Democrat and an Independent, respectively.
I shaded in three cells in light blue: on those three primary dates, from 05/20 to 06/10, a span of 21 days, 1/2 of all the Senate primaries will be decided and a lot of them are in very important marquee races, where the winner of the primary could decide the difference between certain victory for the GOP or a tight race, for instance, in MS and in KY.
We know that all 435 House Seats will be up for grabs in the November election, but not all of them will see primaries, and not in both parties, either. So, it is kind of hard to pin down an exact number of races, but you can simply take the number of electoral votes for a state you see, subtract 2, and then maybe add 1 for a Senatorial and/or 1 for a gubernatorial, add the states together and that could be the number of primaries of import on that night.
One more thing you can get from this table looking into 2016: since pollsters like to get the most bang for their buck and they usually start intensive polling of marquee races about 8-12 weeks before a primary, the we can pretty much guess where we will also see polling for Hillary Clinton vs. the GOP field coming out. It just makes sense for pollsters to tack this kind of stuff onto a poll, they have been doing it for years.
For instance, in the Kentucky Senatorial, which looks to be competitive, where Mitch McConnell (R) is going to have to win the primary over Mike Bevin (Tea) first before going up against Allyson Lundgren (D) in November, this is also from a state that Bill Clinton won twice, in 1992 and 1996 in the presidential elections. Surely, pollsters are going to be taking the pulse of that state vis-a-vis Hillary Clinton as well.
In Georgia, both the Sentorial and the Gubernatorial races could become major marquee races, with Jimmy Carter's grandson running for Governor and Sam Nunn's daughter running for Senator in a state the Bill Clinton won once and was fairly close in 2008. I can imagine that a certain amount of "Hillary" polling will come out of Georgia.
There are also a number of states where Democratic Senate seats are very, very wobbly and look like prime GOP pick-up possibilities in the Fall, and surely we will see a slew of polling out of those states as well. I can imagine more polling coming out of Michigan that we orginally expected.
Don't forget: surprises happen in every mid-term. A race that everyone thought would be a sleeper race can indeed become a major marquee race for a number of reasons: death, scandal, you name it.
So, it helps to have a good overview of what is coming.
I will be making threads for each one of these 18 primary dates.
-Stat
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Additional sources:
United States elections, 2014 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
United States House of Representatives elections, 2014 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
United States Senate elections, 2014 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
United States gubernatorial elections, 2014 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
2014 General Election
RealClearPolitics - Latest Polls
