Zogby

Discussion in 'Congress' started by DavidS, Oct 31, 2008.

  1. DavidS
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    DavidS Anti-Tea Party Member

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    Conservatives beware - Nate Silver (FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right) rips Zogby a new one.

    Now, a lot of you have read my analysis on the polls and my strong defense of them. Many of you have also read how much I dislike the Zogby poll - not because he's partisan like GWU/Underground and Strategic Vision, but because his polls don't show any consistency whatsoever for more than 2-3 day period. One day McCain's up 2, the next Obama's by 7.

    To use a metaphor, I minored in meteorology and studied the computer models (GFS, EURO, NAM, GFDL, JAM, NOGAPS, etc.). Weather models tend to give you information about weather up to 16 days (384 hours). Let's say I were to see a giant hurricane hitting North Carolina in 16 days from now on the GFS model. I'd make a note of it and look for it on the computer models to see if this model is catching onto something. If I see it on some of the other models, let's say 50%, for a period of time of 5 days or greater, then we have a trend and it's time to look for physical evidence to support this... i.e. sattelite maps.

    So to are polls. If one poll, such as Pew, shows Obama up by 15, that to me is a massive hurricane about to hit NC. If none of the other polls show it, I make a note of it and look for a trend for a few days to see if the computer model is still picking it up. If not, then it was a blip. Ground noise. I mentioned the NOGAPS, because it is one of the most unreliabale outlier models in the country. It shows me blizzards in Miami because it's overdoing the amount of cold air that's being pushed down from a canadian high pressure system.

    SO! What does this have to do with Zogby? Zogby is like the NOGAPS. It's all over the place. It's not showing me any consistency whatsoever. In addition, here is what Nate Silver, who specializes in these kinds of things says:

    FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: Trick or Treat

     
  2. Jon
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    Jon The CPA

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    I was intrigued until this, then I stopped caring what this guy had to say.
     
  3. Razalas
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    Razalas Rookie

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    As was I.

    I think I stopped caring what Nate had to say when I read this on his FAQs..

    " I vote for Democratic candidates the majority of the time (though by no means always). This year, I have been a supporter of Barack Obama. The other contributor to this website, Sean, has also been a supporter of Barack Obama."

    ..oh well.
     
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  4. DavidS
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    DavidS Anti-Tea Party Member

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    Don't like his political choice, no problem. Dispute his science.
     
  5. Jon
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    Jon The CPA

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    He does a pretty good job of disputing his own science. In his first point, he defends using running polling data, and in his third point, he criticizes Zogby for it.
     
  6. DavidS
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    DavidS Anti-Tea Party Member

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    Track Record: Zogby's telephone polls are not quite as bad a reputed, ranking just slightly below average (his internet-based Zogby Interactive polls are another matter altogether). However, they seem to be getting worse rather than better. Zogby was one of the few pollsters to call the popular vote for Gore in 2000, but he missed high on Kerry's numbers in many state-level polls in 2004, and then had an erratic primary season this year.

    House Effect/Lean: For the reasons specified below, so far has leaned Republican by a point or two.

    Features/Strengths: Zogby's write-ups are generally entertaining, and he reveals more than most about the progress of the candidates in individual days' results. One of two pollsters to publish results with a decimal place intact, which we like.

    Zogby is the first pollster to go to press each day, publishing in the wee hours of the morning, although the way that he accomplishes this is to split his sample periods over two days. That is, a "day's" worth of polling consists of interviews from that afternoon plus the previous night.

    Quirks/Concerns: There is one very, very significant concern with Zogby, which is that he has a longstanding rule to set his party weightings based on the exit polls from the most recent election. In this case, that means 2004, when a roughly equal number of Democrats and Republicans turned out. However, according to essentially every available poll, Democrats now have somewhere between a 5-point and a 10-point advantage in party ID.
     
  7. Jon
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    Jon The CPA

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    How does that refute what I just said? Oh, right, it doesn't. I was pointing out how your original genius article's first and third points conflict, and you respond by talking about his second point.

    Way to fail.
     
  8. Wade
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    Wade Member

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    So, what's with all the Poll fascination? It's just a statistical guess. Heck, 10% of the sheep in this country change their mind, depending on whether their watching Oprah or Foxnews. The count is all that counts. Wait for Christmas morning, you'll know what santa brought you then, for sure.
     
  9. DiveCon
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    DiveCon gone

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    :lol:


    well put
     
  10. Red Dawn
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    Red Dawn Senior Member

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    ZOGBY
    Released: November 01, 2008

    Obama 49.1%, McCain 44.1%



    ZOGBY Electoral Map Predictions

    [​IMG]
     

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