Your Prediction as of 10/18

Discussion in 'Election Forums' started by Dr.Traveler, Oct 18, 2012.

?

What will the result of the Presidential Elections

Poll closed Nov 6, 2012.
  1. Romney wins over 300+ Electoral Votes

    15.4%
  2. Romney wins between 270 and 299 Electoral Votes

    51.9%
  3. Other: The Race has an unusual end.

    7.7%
  4. Obama wins between 270 and 299 Electoral Votes

    19.2%
  5. Obama wins over 300+ Electoral Votes.

    5.8%
  1. Dr.Traveler
    Offline

    Dr.Traveler Mathematician

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2009
    Messages:
    3,952
    Thanks Received:
    652
    Trophy Points:
    190
    Ratings:
    +1,055
    That's it, the only way legitimately that we'll see a landslide for either man. I think though that would be a bigger story than even the election though as Rasmussen has pretty much fallen into line in the last few days in predicting a dead heat here at the end and eliminating the chance of a landslide.

    I think that most folks will accept a close finish for either man. I know if Mitt wins coming in at even 301 I'd just accept he won and move on. It's been a close race since the debate, but if either many tops out past 310 I'm calling bullshit. There's always hard data indicating a landslide is coming, no matter where you are in the world. A landslide result in the face of data from all of the pollsters would trigger allegations of vote fraud literally anywhere else in the world. It should here too.
     
  2. Oddball
    Offline

    Oddball BANNED Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2009
    Messages:
    41,428
    Thanks Received:
    8,397
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Drinking wine, eating cheese, catching rays
    Ratings:
    +8,415
    I don't even know about that...My landline has been hit like a liquor store in the LA riots with pollsters and robocalls, and we haven't answered a one of them.

    Who is even answering the polls anymore?
     
  3. Dr.Traveler
    Offline

    Dr.Traveler Mathematician

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2009
    Messages:
    3,952
    Thanks Received:
    652
    Trophy Points:
    190
    Ratings:
    +1,055
    I understand not wanting to answer when they call, but I do have to say that if it does turn out that all of the pollsters, all of them, are wrong and it is a landslide.... That's a terrifying outcome. Without actual data there's no way to prove a result like that is legitimate for either candidate. Nothing good would come of it.

    I'm accepting that some of the polls right now will be wrong and a few surprises are in store. For example, I do not believe Iowa is as blue as they're saying. But a landslide? No way.
     
  4. Oddball
    Offline

    Oddball BANNED Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2009
    Messages:
    41,428
    Thanks Received:
    8,397
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Drinking wine, eating cheese, catching rays
    Ratings:
    +8,415
    It's not terrifying at all...It would just prove that all the "experts" are nothing of the sort.

    After all, none of them predicted the 1994 or 2010 ass kickings....And I don't believe for a moment that a presidential election year necessarily makes any poll more accurate or predictable.

    The whole campaigning in supposedly safe states like MN smells to me of spook shit.
     
  5. Uncensored2008
    Offline

    Uncensored2008 Libertarian Radical Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2011
    Messages:
    65,363
    Thanks Received:
    8,400
    Trophy Points:
    2,030
    Location:
    Behind the Orange Curtain
    Ratings:
    +29,737
    You understand that isn't possible, right?

    There are 538 EC votes, if Obama were to get 277 then Romney would have 261.

    I'm sticking with 284 Romney, 252 Obama.
     
  6. Dr.Traveler
    Offline

    Dr.Traveler Mathematician

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2009
    Messages:
    3,952
    Thanks Received:
    652
    Trophy Points:
    190
    Ratings:
    +1,055
    First, I don't have the 1994 data, so I don't know. I do know that pretty much everyone reputable (i.e., not directly on the payroll of the national parties), predicted the 2010 results. They weren't exactly a surprise.

    But to give you an idea how terrifying the pollsters being wrong would be, turn this on its head. Suppose Obama wins tomorrow with more than 348 Electoral Votes, a result no one, not even Daily Kos AFAIK is predicting. How do you verify no fraud has occurred? Many, as in a huge percentage, of the districts are using electronic polling machines with no paper trails at all. Who's to say a mass hacking didn't occur?

    If you were looking at an election outside the US and the internal polling agencies were predicting a near dead heat, what would you say if the result comes back landslide?

    Even if the result is legit (Which is a HUGE IF), the fact you have no way to verify it means the election is forever tainted by allegations.

    BTW, I'm not saying Romney cheated if he wins. He's got a pretty good shot to win and easily could. I'm saying if either guy, Obama or Romney, ends up with a landslide I won't be accepting it easily.
     
  7. SuMar
    Offline

    SuMar VIP Member

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2010
    Messages:
    1,864
    Thanks Received:
    245
    Trophy Points:
    63
    Ratings:
    +245
    Well, I think Romney will win, probably not by a landslide though. The result I fear is that McCaskill will win over Akin, but not by a landslide on that either.

    I hope I'm wrong about the McCaskill - Akin result.
     
  8. Oddball
    Offline

    Oddball BANNED Supporting Member

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2009
    Messages:
    41,428
    Thanks Received:
    8,397
    Trophy Points:
    0
    Location:
    Drinking wine, eating cheese, catching rays
    Ratings:
    +8,415
    I was paying particular attention in 1994, as that was my "put up or shut up" moment for ever supporting for republicans ever again...They were pegged, per conventional wisdom, as picking off a few seats as a product of the off-year election, but none of the big pundits saw the "Republican Revolution" taking over the whole legislative show.

    As far as the pollsters are concerned, I believe that there is a whole lot of CYA hedging going on, even with Rasmussen....There's zero chance that that the election is going to be a blowout for Oboingo, so you're either left with a close election swinging one way or the other, or you go out on a limb and say blowout...Though I have no hard evidence, my gut says that the pollsters are going with the 2:1 safe play, and if it's a blowout for Romney the excuses and spin pieces are already written.
     
  9. Dr.Traveler
    Offline

    Dr.Traveler Mathematician

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2009
    Messages:
    3,952
    Thanks Received:
    652
    Trophy Points:
    190
    Ratings:
    +1,055
    Akin and Mourdock gave the DNC the Senate. This should have been doable for the GOP and now control of the Senate has slipped out of reach.
     
  10. Dr.Traveler
    Offline

    Dr.Traveler Mathematician

    Joined:
    Aug 31, 2009
    Messages:
    3,952
    Thanks Received:
    652
    Trophy Points:
    190
    Ratings:
    +1,055
    Final guesses?
     

Share This Page