Your Prediction as of 10/18

[Dr.Traveler]

Don't know what to say.

It's seems plain to me that the polls don't reflect reality, one way or another.

Last weekend, you had Obammy campaign events in Minnesota and Wisconsin, of all places....Makes no sense if you believe the polls.

That's it, the only way legitimately that we'll see a landslide for either man. I think though that would be a bigger story than even the election though as Rasmussen has pretty much fallen into line in the last few days in predicting a dead heat here at the end and eliminating the chance of a landslide.

I think that most folks will accept a close finish for either man. I know if Mitt wins coming in at even 301 I'd just accept he won and move on. It's been a close race since the debate, but if either many tops out past 310 I'm calling bullshit. There's always hard data indicating a landslide is coming, no matter where you are in the world. A landslide result in the face of data from all of the pollsters would trigger allegations of vote fraud literally anywhere else in the world. It should here too.

 

[Oddball]

Don't know what to say.

It's seems plain to me that the polls don't reflect reality, one way or another.

Last weekend, you had Obammy campaign events in Minnesota and Wisconsin, of all places....Makes no sense if you believe the polls.

That's it, the only way legitimately that we'll see a landslide for either man. I think though that would be a bigger story than even the election though as Rasmussen has pretty much fallen into line in the last few days in predicting a dead heat here at the end and eliminating the chance of a landslide.

I think that most folks will accept a close finish for either man. I know if Mitt wins coming in at even 301 I'd just accept he won and move on. It's been a close race since the debate, but if either many tops out past 310 I'm calling bullshit. There's always hard data indicating a landslide is coming, no matter where you are in the world. A landslide result in the face of data from all of the pollsters would trigger allegations of vote fraud literally anywhere else in the world. It should here too.

I don't even know about that...My landline has been hit like a liquor store in the LA riots with pollsters and robocalls, and we haven't answered a one of them.

Who is even answering the polls anymore?

 

[Dr.Traveler]

I don't even know about that...My landline has been hit like a liquor store in the LA riots with pollsters and robocalls, and we haven't answered a one of them.

Who is even answering the polls anymore?

I understand not wanting to answer when they call, but I do have to say that if it does turn out that all of the pollsters, all of them, are wrong and it is a landslide.... That's a terrifying outcome. Without actual data there's no way to prove a result like that is legitimate for either candidate. Nothing good would come of it.

I'm accepting that some of the polls right now will be wrong and a few surprises are in store. For example, I do not believe Iowa is as blue as they're saying. But a landslide? No way.

 

[Oddball]

It's not terrifying at all...It would just prove that all the "experts" are nothing of the sort.

After all, none of them predicted the 1994 or 2010 ass kickings....And I don't believe for a moment that a presidential election year necessarily makes any poll more accurate or predictable.

The whole campaigning in supposedly safe states like MN smells to me of spook shit.

 

[Uncensored2008]

I've been following the Huffpost Politics Election Dashboard. I like it because it is a snapshot of where the presidential race stands. It's based on hundreds of state-wide and national opinion polls filtered through a poll-tracking mode and updated throughout the day.

So I'm going to predict that the outcome will be close to what they claim tomorrow. Right now they are projecting 277 for President Obama and 191 for Mitt Romney. Hope they are right. I feel strongly that they are. We'll see!!!

Obama vs. Romney Electoral Map

You understand that isn't possible, right?

There are 538 EC votes, if Obama were to get 277 then Romney would have 261.

I'm sticking with 284 Romney, 252 Obama.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

It's not terrifying at all...It would just prove that all the "experts" are nothing of the sort.

After all, none of them predicted the 1994 or 2010 ass kickings....And I don't believe for a moment that a presidential election year necessarily makes any poll more accurate or predictable.

The whole campaigning in supposedly safe states like MN smells to me of spook shit.

First, I don't have the 1994 data, so I don't know. I do know that pretty much everyone reputable (i.e., not directly on the payroll of the national parties), predicted the 2010 results. They weren't exactly a surprise.

But to give you an idea how terrifying the pollsters being wrong would be, turn this on its head. Suppose Obama wins tomorrow with more than 348 Electoral Votes, a result no one, not even Daily Kos AFAIK is predicting. How do you verify no fraud has occurred? Many, as in a huge percentage, of the districts are using electronic polling machines with no paper trails at all. Who's to say a mass hacking didn't occur?

If you were looking at an election outside the US and the internal polling agencies were predicting a near dead heat, what would you say if the result comes back landslide?

Even if the result is legit (Which is a HUGE IF), the fact you have no way to verify it means the election is forever tainted by allegations.

BTW, I'm not saying Romney cheated if he wins. He's got a pretty good shot to win and easily could. I'm saying if either guy, Obama or Romney, ends up with a landslide I won't be accepting it easily.

 

[SuMar]

Well, I think Romney will win, probably not by a landslide though. The result I fear is that McCaskill will win over Akin, but not by a landslide on that either.

I hope I'm wrong about the McCaskill - Akin result.

 

[Oddball]

It's not terrifying at all...It would just prove that all the "experts" are nothing of the sort.

After all, none of them predicted the 1994 or 2010 ass kickings....And I don't believe for a moment that a presidential election year necessarily makes any poll more accurate or predictable.

The whole campaigning in supposedly safe states like MN smells to me of spook shit.

First, I don't have the 1994 data, so I don't know. I do know that pretty much everyone reputable (i.e., not directly on the payroll of the national parties), predicted the 2010 results. They weren't exactly a surprise.

But to give you an idea how terrifying the pollsters being wrong would be, turn this on its head. Suppose Obama wins tomorrow with more than 348 Electoral Votes, a result no one, not even Daily Kos AFAIK is predicting. How do you verify no fraud has occurred? Many, as in a huge percentage, of the districts are using electronic polling machines with no paper trails at all. Who's to say a mass hacking didn't occur?

If you were looking at an election outside the US and the internal polling agencies were predicting a near dead heat, what would you say if the result comes back landslide?

Even if the result is legit (Which is a HUGE IF), the fact you have no way to verify it means the election is forever tainted by allegations.

BTW, I'm not saying Romney cheated if he wins. He's got a pretty good shot to win and easily could. I'm saying if either guy, Obama or Romney, ends up with a landslide I won't be accepting it easily.

I was paying particular attention in 1994, as that was my "put up or shut up" moment for ever supporting for republicans ever again...They were pegged, per conventional wisdom, as picking off a few seats as a product of the off-year election, but none of the big pundits saw the "Republican Revolution" taking over the whole legislative show.

As far as the pollsters are concerned, I believe that there is a whole lot of CYA hedging going on, even with Rasmussen....There's zero chance that that the election is going to be a blowout for Oboingo, so you're either left with a close election swinging one way or the other, or you go out on a limb and say blowout...Though I have no hard evidence, my gut says that the pollsters are going with the 2:1 safe play, and if it's a blowout for Romney the excuses and spin pieces are already written.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

Well, I think Romney will win, probably not by a landslide though. The result I fear is that McCaskill will win over Akin, but not by a landslide on that either.

I hope I'm wrong about the McCaskill - Akin result.

Akin and Mourdock gave the DNC the Senate. This should have been doable for the GOP and now control of the Senate has slipped out of reach.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

Final guesses?

 

[decker]

Final guesses?

my gut instict at the moment is romney going to sadly sneak it. i think i made my feeing finally this morning when i saw early vote turn out stuff here
https://twitter.com/Redistrict

basically obama early vote not big enough in my view to overcome the gop turn out today. I just sense gop turnout amongst white males and others will prove too much in states like ohio and pa

i might be wrong but i have a feeing romney going to win tonight. not by a landslide but he will win.

I hope i have egg on my face but we see.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

The polling aggregates are converging on about 303 or so for Obama, but I seriously think they're being too optimistic. I think it's 275-263 for Obama, or if Romney wins it's 273-265 for Romney. It will come down to Wisconsin, where today we're looking at rain or possibly snow in parts of the State.

 

[decker]

The polling aggregates are converging on about 303 or so for Obama, but I seriously think they're being too optimistic. I think it's 275-263 for Obama, or if Romney wins it's 273-265 for Romney. It will come down to Wisconsin, where today we're looking at rain or possibly snow in parts of the State.

that bad for obama if it snows as low turn out better for romney as his more commited supporters will come out

personally though think it ohio that decides it unless romney wins pa and then pa will decide it

my guy is romney will win it by 10 to 12 collage votes but we see. i hope im, wrong

 

[Rinata]

Obama 277

Romney 191

 

[CrusaderFrank]

How many electoral votes in the other 7 states?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1TxiVhrkZA]Prediction for the Fight - YouTube[/ame]

 

[Rinata]

How many electoral votes in the other 7 states?

Oh, yeah. There are supposed to be 538. Guess I'll never be another Chuck Todd!!

Okay, I'll try this:

Obama 299

Romney 239

I don't think President Obama will go over 299 but I hope I'm wrong!!!

 

[Uncensored2008]

Oh, yeah. There are supposed to be 538. Guess I'll never be another Chuck Todd!!

Okay, I'll try this:

Obama 299

Romney 239

I don't think President Obama will go over 299 but I hope I'm wrong!!!

You know, just tossing out numbers because you think Obama is god only furthers the perception that you are an unthinking doofus.

The rest of us base our numbers on specific states.

Particularly; Romney will take Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and Nevada.

This will result in 284 for Romney, and 252 for Obama. Not because I'm a mindless sycophant, but because that's what the states add up to.

 

[Rinata]

Oh, yeah. There are supposed to be 538. Guess I'll never be another Chuck Todd!!

Okay, I'll try this:

Obama 299

Romney 239

I don't think President Obama will go over 299 but I hope I'm wrong!!!

You know, just tossing out numbers because you think Obama is god only furthers the perception that you are an unthinking doofus.

The rest of us base our numbers on specific states.

Particularly; Romney will take Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and Nevada.

This will result in 284 for Romney, and 252 for Obama. Not because I'm a mindless sycophant, but because that's what the states add up to.

Why don't you just go play on the freeeway?? You are nothing but a mean-spirited psychopath. Did you even bother to ask what happened?? No, you make your stupid assumptions because you think you're the greatest thing since sliced bread. Trust me, you're not.

I wll never again make the mistake of talking to you like you are human. You're not. Dracula had more human feelings than you do. You are one of the creepiest bat crap crazies on this site and getting creepier all the time. Drop dead, you ass hole.

 

[auditor0007]

I think Romney wins, for no better reason that Obiedoodle can't crack the 50% threshold in all of the swing states.

Historically, the "undecideds" have gone for the challenger when the incumbent doesn't have a plurality.

Historically, there has never been such a big disparity in likeability as there is between Obama and Romney. That is what will keep Romney from winning in the end; people just don't like him, and yes, when it comes to casting a ballot, that matters.

Keep hitting that bong bub......self soothing is good.......

Only because you are such an ass, I'm sending you a good dose of morphine to help ease the pain.