CDZ Wow, The Markets were Closed to Peons and Went up a Lot

Discussion in 'Clean Debate Zone' started by william the wie, Jan 1, 2018.

  1. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    A double digit surge up for my account since Friday. I have may have underestimated rate of GDP growthrate for the year 2018.

    So here goes

    Low 12% and five states rated junk.

    high 60% and 15 states in deep economic trouble.
     
  2. eddiew37
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    eddiew37 Gold Member

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    Must have been short markets got killed friday and futures don't look much better
     
  3. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    I'm happy with my picks.
     
  4. Xelor
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    Xelor Gold Member

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    If either of those GDP growth rates is indeed what we observe come 12-31-2018, I suspect that the very same people who have not benefited from the past years' economic gains will be among the very same people who do not benefit from the GDP growth you foresee. Those people will, as they do now, still be bitching and moaning, all the while not looking in the mirror to find the source of their dismay.
     
    • Funny and Agree!! Funny and Agree!! x 2
  5. eddiew37
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    eddiew37 Gold Member

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    IMHO GDP won't reach 3% for 2017
     
  6. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    Well in large part it is an artifact of GDP accounting in regards to housing stock and more general construction. New construction and to a lesser degree repair and maintenance costs are economic growth. Abandoned or destroyed property is not subtracted from growth. Between the CA fires providing insurance funds to hit the exits and damage from the current winter storm to do the same the low SALT states are almost certainly going to see two million new houses. One time relocation costs to give employees a one time cut in SALT taxes that should last their career is a great bennie. The lowside is based on a $250,000 average house cost $2.4-2.6T (several ways of computing GDP) as 12% of GDP plus more consumers buying more furnishings 12% is more or less a slamdunk with any defensible multiplier effect.

    High-end is based on two possibilities IL, which is just above junk in bond rating and with every major industry having multiple fall back positions is likely to have a messy default and many politicians going to jail. Or new taxes added on to old ones as in CA to drive industry out of the state. If both possibilities kick in I have no idea what will happen.
     
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  7. Picaro
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    Picaro Gold Member

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    Sucker bubbles is all that has been going on since the early 1970's, before the oil crisis and food shortages hit and screwed it all up, and then our leaders followed that inflationary cycle up with loosening up accounting standards and adding bogus stats to government accounting procedures for determining GDP and inflation. Japanese and Euro banks use their own formulas for determining our inflation and GDP growth, not the ones our government peddles to its own people. The 'little people' are just flying blind and have no access to real data, they're just trying to get lucky guessing which stocks institutional buyers are going to boom up or bust.

    SOP is to run around patting theirselves on the back when their bets rise, babble all sorts of rubbish about 'free markets', 'hard work', being smart, ad nauseam, and when they lose blame it on Democrats and race into bankruptcy court to avoid paying their debts like good little hypocrites and leaving others to clean up their messes for them.

    The top 1% are still going to be paying pols for the massive subsidies that keep the super wealthy super wealthy, while incomes for the bottom 50% will keep declining; the political instability from that will eventually hit when borrowing is no longer an option. This is why you see such groups as the Trilateralists constantly touting up Red China as the New Messiah and Best Friend of multi-national 'globalists' for the last two decades; no uppity unwashed proles to worry about over there when the labor racketeering schemes fall flat, the police and Cadres have them all under their thumbs. Over they starve quietly in the back alleys and countryside, without a lot of fuss. Meanwhile the U.S. builds nice new container ports for others while the interstates deteriorate and bridges collapse, cities can't fix roads, etc.
     
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    Last edited: Jan 3, 2018
  8. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    Moving a quarter to a third of the country's population, 83-110 million people through tax incentives from one part of the country to another by 2020 will drive incomes in most of the country higher. That ensures reelection for Trump. And since infrastructure costs are, generally, less due to climate and topography in low SALT states bang for the buck is greater.
     
  9. Xelor
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    Xelor Gold Member

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    ??? What has any of that to do with what I wrote? I'm trying to understand how my comments catalyzed yours
    What "it?" "People" not any "it" were the subject of my remarks, yet you've responded to me talking about "it."
     
  10. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    my projections of GDP growth are based mostly on the caps on the deductibility of mortgages and SALT causing migration and therefore construction in low SALT and/or low cost housing states.

    There are also factors that are hard to compute such as:
    The delta v of gdp/qtr is already in the double digits as in the in March or June reports are likely to show slightly more than 4% quarterly gdp growth and at least 4.5% by Dec. and 6+% by Dec 2019 solely based on administrative federal deregulation.

    then there is going to be entitlement relief because of early retirement shrinking the effective labor force. Hiring and wages will go up while layoffs become less common in most fields. Therefore if a relatively poor seventy or eighty year old retiree can do the job they will be hired and be paying into Social Security and medicare to partly offset benefits received.

    Federal deregulation and state right to work laws will also determine how many mostly foreign owned new factories will be built and where.

    The downsides are strange:

    I learned of the collapse NYC real estate on CNBC through some really bizarre and borderline incoherent articles so bad that I didn't understand the story. It seems, from other sources, that well connected builders and owners of properties started bailing on the high end Manhattan market in late Sept./early Oct. with the Chinese buyers in particular getting skittish. but the first I heard about it was this week. Although I have seen no published confirmation of insurance financed out migration from CA going up I have not seen the wall to wall "we will rebuild" stories that usually come out after the fire and also the landslide season is coming up so I expect a dearth the rebuild stories then too. If the California and Illinois housing markets also collapse into line with the mortgage deduction then the state tax bases will also collapse. The meltdown did not affect housing prices at all in Texas and SD. Greater but still lesser than the national norm effects in AL and MS means that my cousins made a great deal of money playing both of those markets. $970,000 houses with 20% of it down can still buy water view and sometimes waterfront housing in most of the south and central plains with full mortgage deductibility.

    The current winter storm will also cause migration problems for local and state governments. Downsizing a state or local bureaucracy is messy and will become a vicious cycle quickly.
     

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