Behind the Math: Why FiveThirtyEight predicts a GOP takeover in the Senate
“We’re currently projecting that Republicans have a better chance than Democrats to control the Senate, but it's still up for grabs,” FiveThirtyEight political analyst Harry Enten said. “The current number that we're going for is a 62.2 percent chance that Republicans will take control of the United States Senate in November.”
Enten sat down with “Top Line” to discuss FiveThirtyEight’s Senate forecast, which has been updated since this interview’s taping Wednesday, and explained why it tells a story of GOP victory.
“We’re calculating the percentage chance that Republicans will win each seat, and then we're adding up those probabilities, and then we come up with an overall top line,” he said. “We believe that Republicans do have a better chance of controlling the Senate than Democrats.”
The projections for each race, Enten explained, don’t have to do with how many percentage points a given candidate leads their opponent; instead, it has to do with how consistent that lead is.
“Remember, President Obama only had a small lead through most of the 2012 campaign, but it was consistent, so the percentage chance of winning was higher,” Enten said.
And he pointed to another 2012 reality that continues to ring true in FiveThirtyEight’s 2014 projections.
“If you look at the map where we're projecting Republicans to win seats from Democrats, these are all states where Mitt Romney won and most of them are states where Mitt Romney won handily in 2012,” Enten said.
In looking at the map, Enten said the Kansas Senate election, where Democratic candidate Chad Taylor recently pulled out of the race – and, in so doing, dramatically shifted the ground game – has undergone the most dramatic changes in projecting the race’s outcome.
Behind the Math Why FiveThirtyEight predicts a GOP takeover in the Senate Power Players - Yahoo News
An interesting piece. Fivethirtyeight is always interesting.
“We’re currently projecting that Republicans have a better chance than Democrats to control the Senate, but it's still up for grabs,” FiveThirtyEight political analyst Harry Enten said. “The current number that we're going for is a 62.2 percent chance that Republicans will take control of the United States Senate in November.”
Enten sat down with “Top Line” to discuss FiveThirtyEight’s Senate forecast, which has been updated since this interview’s taping Wednesday, and explained why it tells a story of GOP victory.
“We’re calculating the percentage chance that Republicans will win each seat, and then we're adding up those probabilities, and then we come up with an overall top line,” he said. “We believe that Republicans do have a better chance of controlling the Senate than Democrats.”
The projections for each race, Enten explained, don’t have to do with how many percentage points a given candidate leads their opponent; instead, it has to do with how consistent that lead is.
“Remember, President Obama only had a small lead through most of the 2012 campaign, but it was consistent, so the percentage chance of winning was higher,” Enten said.
And he pointed to another 2012 reality that continues to ring true in FiveThirtyEight’s 2014 projections.
“If you look at the map where we're projecting Republicans to win seats from Democrats, these are all states where Mitt Romney won and most of them are states where Mitt Romney won handily in 2012,” Enten said.
In looking at the map, Enten said the Kansas Senate election, where Democratic candidate Chad Taylor recently pulled out of the race – and, in so doing, dramatically shifted the ground game – has undergone the most dramatic changes in projecting the race’s outcome.
Behind the Math Why FiveThirtyEight predicts a GOP takeover in the Senate Power Players - Yahoo News
An interesting piece. Fivethirtyeight is always interesting.
