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As far as I know, the American law doesn't forbid him from taking part in this case.
It's probably true that most Republicans are stupid enough to nominate an incarcerated convict, but the chancing of winning the election under those circumstances is ZERO.
Even if Trump isn't incarcerated, the chances of him winning the election is close to zero. He'll do far worse than he did in the 2020 election.
The weirdest thing about Trump supporters is that they believe that Trump is politically strong. The high point of his political career was winning(?) the 2016 election - he very barely won that even with Putin's help. It's all been downhill and getting steeper since then.
You may delude yourself all you want, but Trump is the most despised man in American history. He makes Benedict Arnold seem popular!