Where is the recovery if you believe in it?????

Discussion in 'Economy' started by Neubarth, Nov 6, 2009.

  1. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    What hard data do you see that would indicate that the economy is improving and we are out of a recession as the Obamaites keep on postulating.

    Support your position with hard data as measured over four or five or six months.

    This should be interesting!
     
  2. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    People call me names on this board because I say we are in Depression, yet those same people can't cite the data that would show that the economy is rebounding like the stock market........

    Could it be Retail Sales numbers for the past year?
    RETAIL SALES
    SEP 2009 - 1.5 %
    AUG 2009 -0.2%
    JUL 2009 -0.1
    JUN 2009 +0.8 %
    MAY 2009 +0.5%
    APR 2009 –0.4%
    MAR 2009 –1.3%
    FEB 2009 –0.1%
    JAN 2009 + 1.0%
    DEC 2008 –2.7%
    NOV 2008 –2.1%
    OCT 2008 –2.9%
    SEP 2008 –1.3%
    AUG 2008 –0.4%
    http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200939.html


    Could it be DURABLE ORDERS ???? Subject to wide fluctuations, up or down two to three percent in any month. What is the average trend for 12 months? Remember flip flops on the bottom, just like a fish out of water is not a valid indicator. All that shows is that the numbers have some degree of error that can show month to month, as can be seen in January and February.
    SEP 2009 +1.0%
    AUG 2009 -2.4%
    JUL 2009 +4.8%
    JUN 2009 -1.3%
    MAY 2009 +1.3%
    APR 2009 +1.9%
    MAR 2009 - 2.1%
    FEB 2009 +3.4%
    JAN 2009 – 5.2%
    DEC2008 – 2.6%
    NOV 2008 – 1.0 %
    OCT 2008 – 8.4%
    SEP 2008 –1.0%
    AUG 2008 – 4.5%

    How about Capacity Utilization? I have given you a snapshot back in time to show you what it was like in better conditions.

    CAPACITY UTILIZATION It looks like it is just flip flopping to me.
    SEP 2009 70.5%
    AUG 2009 69.9%
    JUL 2009 68.5%
    JUN 2009 68.1%
    MAY 2009 68.3%
    APR 2009 69.0%
    ^^^^^^^^^^^
    JUN 2007 81.7%
    MAY 2007 81.3%
    APR 2007 81.5%
    MAR 2007 81.4%


    OR MAYBE CONSTRUCTION SPENDING? It looks to me that it has fallen and can not get up! FLIP FLOPPING ON THE BOTTOM.

    CONSTRUCTION SPENDING The monthly changes are both volatile and subject to huge revisions.

    SEP 2009 0.8%
    AUG 2009 0.1%
    JUL 2009 -1.1%
    JUN 2009 +0.1%
    MAY 2009 –0.9%
    APR 2009 + 0.6%
    MAR 2009 +0.3%
    FEB 2009 -1.0%
    JAN 2009 -3.5%
    DEC 2008 -2.4%
    NOV 2008 -1.2%
    OCT 2008 -0.4%
    SEP 2008 0.0
     
    Last edited: Nov 7, 2009
  3. garyd
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    garyd Senior Member

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    No place that I've been able to discern. Chris is touting a 19.8% rise over last year in home sales but it appears to be mostly preexisting homes, and last year was the worst year for home sales in 3 decades so exactly what if anything does that mean?
     
  4. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    It wasn't even 19.8% if you look at the numbers. On top of that one third of the houses sold this year have been in Foreclosure sales. How is that additive to the economy. Statistics again have no value if they are not tied to reality. 19.8 is meaningless.
     

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