Discussion in 'Economy' started by william the wie, Jan 28, 2011.
Being in a cynical mood I figured I would poll people on what will be the next leg down.
I picked no 1 to get the ball rolling. I have no idea which one will come first.
I went with states defaulting. It's as close as I could get to thinking there will be major issues with pensions for more and more states.
If that happens, I'm thinking a domino effect will take over and lots of things are going to change.
except for the state's default scenario, the remaining disasters are all different faces of the same ailment: too much money, not enough real investment. the best case scenario is an all of the above episode which evaporates some ($10^12 or better) of the cash upon ignition.
I predict the States, since they are in the worst shape and have the most means to get in the way of economic progress. They always cut the front lines and never cut the administrators. The retired administrators somehow see this as okay.
It's going to be a real mess.
The DOW has recently hit 12,000.
What is everyone so worried about?
A currency crisis or a sovereign debt crisis, if it happens. It has to be bigger than Lehman and subprime and the housing bubble collapse.
I think a state defaulting isn't that big of a deal.
Oil skyrocketing to $100+ a barrel. This causes the consumer to spend more money for gas ($4.00/gal) and causing the economy to backslide back into recession. Food prices continue to soar as a result of the increased fuel costs and the natural disaters around the world causing global unrest. What is happening now is just the beginning. State default looks like a real possibility with a return of recession.
frankly an 'all of the above' option would not have been bad.
" happy days are here again the sky is blue....."
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