What are the statistical gaps in the US?

Discussion in 'Economy' started by william the wie, Oct 31, 2010.

  1. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    I am not looking for solutions in this thread that discussion will come later if ever. On another board I have had discussions on the lack of hard data on derivatives, on this board about a lack of data on who relies on food stamps/WIC as the sole support of their family.

    I am trying to figure out how bad the compounding of error problem is. As the 2008 meltdown and many other financial crises have amply demonstrated the number of known unknowns, to use a Rumfieldism, is escalating rapidly. A known unknown is a nice defensible number that is or becomes dead wrong. It becomes dead wrong in one of two ways changes in the population make data collection a joke or in some cases an incentive to game the data model is created.

    The compounding of errors and known unknowns create what are called Black Swans: discontinuities that cause the markets to explode up or down, usually down. I speculate on black swan events so I am trying to get a handle on how big this problem is becoming.
     
  2. loosecannon
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    loosecannon Senior Member

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    the compounding of error regarding derivatives trade data or nanny state life support?
     
  3. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    They are both in operation so take one or both and run with it. On this thread I am trying to find gaps I didn't know about.
     
  4. loosecannon
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    loosecannon Senior Member

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    Is any information about derivatives disseminated?

    The BIS does occasionally float some figures, maybe the IMF too.

    Google BIS data, seems fairly advanced.

    a lot there.

    The IMF seems to agree with you:

    Centralized Derivatives Clearing Would Aid Financial System
    apparently 2009 volumes were above 2007 volumes that caused the credit crisis:

    [​IMG]
     
  5. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    A central clearinghouse for derivatives in say Chicago with a 0.1% tax would just about balance the budget.
     
  6. loosecannon
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    loosecannon Senior Member

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    I am all for it. Aside from currency swaps and commodity futures for folks who actually take delivery I can't even imagine why derivatives are legal.

    2/3 of the volumes are in interest rate contracts that do nothing but service currency speculation. But currency speculation is purely predatory! And can have profound negative consequences on actual nation states!
     
  7. william the wie
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    william the wie Gold Member

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    You know the old comment about fools and money. I say just take a cut to decrease taxes in the US and let the idiots kill themselves.
     
  8. psikeyhackr
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    psikeyhackr VIP Member

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    The number of cars in the US reached 200,000,000 in 1995.

    Cars are machines that wear out. As machines wear out they DEPRECIATE. The laws of physics do not care about capitalism and whether a machine is a capital good or a consumer good. They both wear out. Our genius economists add the purchase of capital and consumer goods to GDP but they hardly ever talk about NDP. They only subtract the depreciation of capital good from GDP to compute NDP.

    NDP = GDP - Depreciation

    But this is not just about the United States. It seems that every nation on Earth has adopted this behavior. Most of the world thinks Americans are intelligent. Or at least used to.

    So the depreciation of all of the consumer automobiles and televisions and refrigerators and stereos and computers and etc., etc., etc. is ignored. So consumers replacing junk that only lasts one third as long as it should increases GDP and the junk is not subtracted from anywhere.

    And people pay a lot of money to got to college to be taught economics based on defective grade school algebra. We have only been doing this nonsense for 60 years. Is that why the economy is so screwed up?

    PBS Discussions :: View topic - The Algebra of Economics

    psik
     
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  9. loosecannon
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    loosecannon Senior Member

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    GDP is a hoax from the get go, but it is what it is. Nothing more.

    It doesn't account for capital improvements that you do to your own home, even if you built your own home from scratch. But it does account for production of nuclear weapons, then doesn't account for the destruction realized by detonating one.

    GDP counts hiring a maid, a nanny, a baby sitter but doesn't count the labor of a stay at home Mom who does all three plus 35 other functions that can be counted as GDP if money changes hands.

    GDP doesn't register the loss of lifetime productivity when a PHD dies a tragic death at 26yo, but it does register the cost of cleaning up the scene of the accident and his emergency room care.

    It just is what it is, a simple measure of commerce, nothing more.

    Is that wrong? No. Is it misleading? Only if you make the wrong assumptions.
     
  10. rdean
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    rdean rddean

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