We are getting closer to economic improvement. Still not there.

Discussion in 'Economy' started by Neubarth, May 20, 2010.

  1. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    UNADJUSTED DATA

    The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 407,940 in the week ending May 15, a decrease of 1,819 from the previous week.

    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

    We have to get it down another 100,000. Unfortunately, the other important parameters in the economy appear to be about ready to collapse. So close and yet so far away.
     
  2. pinqy
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    pinqy Gold Member

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    Actually, that's bad news. It's mid-May, UI claims always go down this time of year, but last week they didn't go down as much as they should have...adjusting for the normal changes this time of year, the real trend is an increase of 25,000 Not good at all. I'm not sure why the reversal.

    Again, it's like you're measuring the ocean levels..it's now low tide and so you see that as a decrease in the level...but it hasn't gone down as much as it should have so it's really an increase.
     
  3. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    As I have said for years, there is no need to adjust the raw numbers. Anybody with a brain knows that there are periods where layoffs increase and when they decrease. As the most obvious example, post Christmas sales season, a lot of temporary retail clerks get laid off. It is usually enough to make the UI claims numbers go up. I agree with you that this should be a period where UI claims numbers should be going down. The fact is that the actual numbers as they are coming in from the states are almost below 400,000. Since I can feel the pain of all of those who are out of work, I know that we are moving in the right direction. We just need to get it down another 100,000 and we can start talking about an actual recovery. Can we do it before all hell breaks loose? Only time will tell.
     
  4. pinqy
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    pinqy Gold Member

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    And that's exactly why the numbers need to be adjusted. You can't tell from the raw numbers what the real trend is. Claims always go up in January, but you really have to do the math to the math to see how that fits in with the general trend. If you look at a graph of the unadjusted numbers, you see a lot of up and down spikes...we need the adjustment to smooth that out and see what the underlying trend is.

    But they should be going down by a lot more than they have, which means the underlying trend is an increase.


    But it's the trend and direction that's important. And last week was a reversal...I don't think it'll be a big deal overall, but it's troubling.
     
  5. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    Last edited: May 20, 2010
  6. pinqy
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    pinqy Gold Member

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    That wouldn't work, because there are too many changes. Clearly even under the Bush years we had more UI claims than during Eisenhower because we had a lot more people under Bush. So the mean doesn't help with a changing population and it still doesn't help isolate the seasonal factors from the underlying trend.

    Seasonal adjustment is fairly complicated math that does manage to (mostly) isolate the noise from the overall trend.
     

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  7. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    There is no need for a season adjustment. I will stand behind that, because I know how totally corrupt Goldman Sachs is. As you can see they use the artificial numbers to spook the market like they have been doing for the past week. This artificial raising of the UI numbers when Goldman wants to tank the market and the artificial lowering of the UI when Goldman wants to Raise the market IS TOTALLY CORRUPT.

    As I said a year ago, all the people need to see are the numbers as they come in from the states. Back in January when 801,000 people in one week filed for Unemployment, Hilda Solis cut that number in half so Goldman could continue tricking people into believing that the economy was running strong (which was not happening).

    It wasn't running strong as anybody could see if they looked at how many had been cut from the workforce. Most people do not bother to look and just take the government at its dishonest word. So now millions of Americans will be fleeced again at the actual time the economy is finally showing strength. That is what your so called adjustments get you. It is called CORRUPTION TO THE MAX.

    So don't tell me that the artificial government numbers have any relationship to reality. They are just artificial numbers to allow Goldman Sachs to dupe the public and fleece them of their life savings.

    As another poster called it, IT IS A CLASS WAR. As I further defined it, "IT IS A CLASS WAR OF BANKERS HAVING NO CLASS STEALING THE LIFE SAVINGS OF THE MIDDLE CLASS AMERICANS WHO ARE BEING DELUDED BY GOVERNMENT AND BIG BANKS INTO LOSING THIER LIFE SAVINGS. It has been going on for the past forty years, but now has gotten totally out of control in the past ten. CORRUPTION TO THE MAX AND NOBODY IS DOING ANYTHING ABOUT IT. Only fools trust the government.
     
  8. pinqy
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    pinqy Gold Member

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    What the fuck do you think Goldman Sachs has to do with BLS? The correct answer is: "Not a damned thing."
     

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