Voter Registration In The Usa: September 2014

[Statistikhengst]

I have created a massive analysis of the current VR statistics for our Union. This is the fourth time I have done this and the second time since joining USMB.

The analysis is far too large and too excel-table intensive to publish here in USMB, so I am simply giving the link to the analysis:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2013 and beyond Voter Registration in the USA September 2014

And, the complete EXCEL document, where all the raw-data can be found. This document only makes real sense if you read the complete analysis.



The report is similar in scope (but slightly more in depth) than the one from December, 2013.

Some quotes:

I have completed a fourth major study of voter registration in the USA. Well, „completed“ is not accurate, for the stats are constantly changing. Rather, I can now provide a very reliable snapshot of one point in history and compare it as best as possible to the same time-frame four years ago and also to the GE 2012. These are the RV statistics for the Union in September 2014. I will be updating this data from now until GE 2016 every six months or so and posting a new report each time. For that is the entire idea – to follow and note changes in the electorate in the time leading up to the next GE.

Because of Federalism, there is no standard system in the USA for recording statistics pertaining to elections (voter registration, voter turnout, election results) according to any criteria. This makes getting information about Voter Registration somewhat of an adventure, and also, because not all states have -or publish- voter registration by party affiliation, it is impossible to come up with complete partisan statistics for the Union.

It gets even more adventurous as many State SOS or BOE or Governor's or Lt. Governor's websites are constantly moving data into archives and former links then go defunct. Different states have different ways of terming things, but the end result is just the same. Whether a state calls is a „registered voter database“, a „voter registration file“ or „roll of voters“, it all means the same thing. Some states publish only the number of voters registered, while others publish them by partisan affiliation. Some publish VR stats only by number and race and/or gender an/or age. Some states publish VR stats every week, others every month, others once quarterly, others only per election, etc. So, it's a mixed bag, to say the least.

and:

Hard facts:
​

Currently, there are 183,037,283 registered voters in the USA plus DC. There were 183,821,274 registered voters at the time I did this analysis last in December, 2013. This means that there are currently 783,993 LESS people registered to vote than at the end of December, 2013, but it is very possible that there will be a last minute rush to register right before the 2014 midterms, which is why I will definitely be updating this analysis at the beginning of November and then again, at the end of December in this year.

Now, we know that from day to day, people are coming on and off the rolls all over the place via death, moving, coming of voting age, etc., but those things generally cancel each other out and daily changes on the national level would then be pretty micoscopic. So, it is fair to say that right now, 183 million are registered.

Of those 183,821,274, 111,301,204 (60.81%) registered voters come from the 31 states plus DC that provide VR statistics by partisan affiliation. In December, 2013, that statistic was 61.08% of the total VR for the country, so the balance between states that do VR by party identification and states that do not has barely budged.

The other 71,736,079 (39.19%) registered voters come from 17 states that do not provide VR statistics by party affiliation, but rather, publish a VR total. That statistic was 38.92%of the total VR for the country, so the balance between states that do VR by party identification and states that do not has barely budged.

The picture will always be somewhat incomplete as ND has no voter registration at all and MS provides no VR stats. Also, Alabama's latest stats are still from the GE-2012, there, my hands are tied.

In 2011, this report showed ca. 177.8 million registered voters, so the off-year rolls have grown somewhat, by about 6.5 million, with the population of the USA.

And some interesting maps:

That map only makes sense in context of the analysis, so go read it..


The report then goes into depth about Wyoming, DC, Rhode Island, Utah, Iowa, Colorado, Arizona, California, Ohio, West Virginia, Oklahoma and New Hampshire, all for different reasons that make sense at the link.

At the end of the report, I praise a number of state SOS website for good work in publishing such statistics.

The final quote:

FACIT: there is actually very little substantive change in VR throughout the Union when you compare it to four years ago. There are no states where members of one party or the other have come out in droves to register, thus changing the balance of that state, at least in the 31 "states" that publish VR by party affiliation.

Therefore, it would be a fatal flaw to try to read tea-leaves from this data and divine which party wins the mid-terms. As is always that case, voter turnout and attractivity to the so-called unaffiliated voters is what wins elections.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I would encourage everyone to take time and read the analysis, the data-gathering and crunching for which took about two weeks of time (in my spare time), including a double-check and clean-up, so to speak - and then go to the excel link and check out your own state.

There is just tons of information here that could be of lots of interest to a lot of people.

If you have a question about any one link, or any specific state or wish to add information that you think may be missing, feel free to do so.

And BTW, if you have not already:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------


Oh, and just a little side-note: a couple of days ago, I created this thread:

Gallup Claims Unaffiliateds At 47 US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum

Actual percentage of unaffiliated voters in the 31 states that actually publish such statistics: 28.53%, not 47%.

Food for thought.

 

[Statistikhengst]

A friendly shout out to some folks who may really enjoy the information in the OP:

@AVG-JOE @Mad_Cabbie @JakeStarkey @Wolfsister77 @william the wie @Mertex @aaronleland @Bloodrock44 @daws101 @Delta4Embassy @MarcATL @Mr Clean @Nosmo King @Derideo_Te
@Nyvin @rightwinger @Sallow @oldfart @Thx @candycorn @Seawytch @C_Clayton_Jones @Barb @JoeB131 @editec @Flopper @Grandma @guno @bodecea @Pogo @Machaut @AceRothstein @kiwiman127 @bendog @PoliticalTorch @TheOldSchool @Jughead @cereal_killer
@Mad Scientist

Anyone who doesn't want to be on this occasional mention (tag) list: just let me know, I will drop the name immediately. If you want onto the list, just let me know. I really am trying to make this a totally non-partisan list.

Thanks,

-Stat

 

[Mad Scientist]

Please add me to your list!

 

[MisterBeale]

 

[MisterBeale]

 

[MisterBeale]

You're funny. You clearly don't know how the system works.

Or do you?

 

[Moonglow]

Pretty pictures, please take me off the list you never put me on...my state is gold so I stopped...reading

 

[Statistikhengst]

Please add me to your list!

Done, gladly.

 

[Statistikhengst]

You're funny. You clearly don't know how the system works.

Or do you?

I think you are missing the point. Actually, I know you are missing the point.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Pretty pictures, please take me off the list you never put me on...my state is gold so I stopped...reading

So, snookums, you want on or off?!?!?

 

[Moonglow]

Pretty pictures, please take me off the list you never put me on...my state is gold so I stopped...reading

So, snookums, you want on or off?!?!?

Are you trying to pressure me?
or is it a sexual innuendo?

I guess on. I already knew Okiehomas position, yet they elect repubs all the time...I live in Missouri and it would be split betwixed the dems in the north and the GOP in the south..

 

[Moonglow]

Do you have a flo-chart of the raw data also?

 

[MisterBeale]

You're funny. You clearly don't know how the system works.

Or do you?

I think you are missing the point. Actually, I know you are missing the point.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Oh, my.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Pretty pictures, please take me off the list you never put me on...my state is gold so I stopped...reading

So, snookums, you want on or off?!?!?

Are you trying to pressure me?
or is it a sexual innuendo?

I guess on. I already knew Okiehomas position, yet they elect repubs all the time...I live in Missouri and it would be split betwixed the dems in the north and the GOP in the south..

 

[Moonglow]

Oh, my.

All that empirical data just flushed I tells ya!

 

[Moonglow]

Excel,, I had windows 95 class in college just to learn Excel..Never used it..

 

[Statistikhengst]

Do you have a flo-chart of the raw data also?

Not a big fan of flow charts, I like to see the raw numbers, then, when necessary, represented on a map.

But there is a newer wave of 3-D data visualization that I am learning, could be cool...

 

[Derideo_Te]

Gotta wonder if that drop in total VR's was a reflection of the "purging" of voter roles in some states. Going to be a lot of angry people who turn up to vote only to discover that they are no longer registered.

 

[Moonglow]

Do you have a flo-chart of the raw data also?

Not a big fan of flow charts, I like to see the raw numbers, then, when necessary, represented on a map.

But there is a newer wave of 3-D data visualization that I am learning, could be cool...

When it gets to the 4th dimension I'll study it..